September 25, 2004; Vol I
Not much time to post tonight, but I want to make sure my picks get in before games start. I dont have any picks for Friday night, though I like No Ill (NOTE: NO ILL 34, BG 17) and am not so sure that Boise will cover against BYU (decent defense). (NOTE: BOISE 28, BYU 27)
Current record:
Five Star Picks: 4-2
Four Star Picks: 5-2
Three Star Picks: 2-5
Two Star Picks: 5-2
One Star Picks: 1-2
Overall: 17-13
Not bad for two weeks without really having any good information. Basically, this says that if I give you a high star game, its a winner. Three stars mean I can go either way, so avoid it. I like a game there, but have reservations. Apparently, my reservations have been correct. Note that one star picks are throw away, total caution into the wind picks. The key picks are the two stars. They are gut picks, where one team shows me something, and the trend is not in their favor, and I am going against it. 5-2 means my guy is often right. On to the picks:
***** 5 Star Picks
Notre Dame (-11.5) v. Washington: UW is just not good. A blow out for ND means by 14, but it should be enough here. Look for a 24-10 game, with ND displaying a more disciplined running game, and a more stout defense. (ND 38, WAS 13)
Virginia (-25.5) v. Syracuse: The Cuse put 37 on Buffalo. Big deal. They struggled to beat Cincy, and were dogs in that game. Purdue shut them out, and Virginia's defense is light years ahead of Purdue. At home, Marcus Hagan gets rolling, and Chris Canty and the boys hand another donut on the inept Cuse offense. (VIRGINIA 31, SYRACUSE 10)
Wisconsin (-2.5) v. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I have no idea why this game is so close. PSU has an exceptional offense, but were dismantled by BC. Wisc has won ugly, but they are impossible to beat at Camp Randall. This may be one ugly game, but Booker Stanley is more than enough at RB to make this a 3 point win.
(WISCONSIN 16, PENN STATE 3)
**** 4 Star Games
Kansas (+6.5) v. Texas Tech: Mike Mangino has a different team in Kansas than they have seen in the past. Ignore the 70 Tech hung on a TCU team that gave up 45 to Northwestern. Kansas plays strong defense, and should hang within the number at home. (TEX TECH 31, KANSAS 30)
Arkansas (-5.5) v. Alabama: Everyone likes the 3-0 Tide to compete, but without QB Brodie Croyle they will be lose. Ark took Tex to the wire, and QB Matt Jones is as good a running/passing QB there is in the nation. Very Major Harris-like. (ARK 27, ALABAMA 10)
Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Ball State: I know nothing here, other than WM has been very competitive, and Ball State stinks. Total gut feeling based on performance. (BALL ST 41, W MICH 14)
*** 3 Star Games
Wake Forest (+1.5) v. Boston College: This game opened with Wake a 2 point favorite, and I liked it then. I dont know where all the BC love is coming from, but Wake has proven to be better than advertised. RB Chris Barclay is for real, and should be enough to keep Wake in the game. The home field advantage is worth three points at least, and Pistol Paul goes down to the Deacons. (WF 17, BC 14)
Rice (+32.5) @ Texas: Traditionally, teams have a tough time preparing for the wish bone that Rice uses, but Texas has had two weeks, so they might blow the Owls out. Rice comes in with the best rushing defense in the nation, and Tex the best rushing offense in the nation. If the run-happy Owls can grind clock against the Horns, they should be able to keep the opposing offense off the field long enough to remain within the number. (TEXAS 35, RICE 13)
** 2 Star Picks:
Iowa (+13) @ Michigan: Something about this game stinks. Both are coming off subpar performances, but Iowa was horrible. Their defense and their offense were terrible. However, they are better defensively then they showed, and Michigan is hardly Arizona State. Iowa traditionally plays Michigan well, and I would take a Kirk Ferenz coached team over LLoyd Carr any day. Michigan just has better talent here, but they are not better prepared. (MICHIGAN 30, IOWA 17)
Air Force (+22) @ Utah: Utah is great, no doubt. But this is another case of the wishbone being tough to prepare for. The Utes should own the Falcons, but perhaps not enough to stay within 22. AF surprised UNLV at home last week, and should be playing with the confidence that they are a better team than they showed in week 1. (UTAH 49, AIR FORCE 35)
South Carolina (-14.5) v. Troy State: Troy was a darling pick until crapping on themselves last week. The win over Missouri has lost its luster, and after playing Georgia to a stalemate, the Gamecocks are showing to be better than a middle of the pack SEC team. They should win this game by 3 scores easily.
(SO CAR 17, TROY 7)
New Mexico (-6) @ New Mexico State: NMSt is a bad team, and has played some close games over their head. NM has shown to be a contender in the conference, and should demonstrate better athletes over the Aggies. (NEW MEXICO 38, NMST 13)
* 1 Freaking Star Games
Stanford (+21.5) v. USC: Just crazy talk. But when an offense is averaging 40+ ppg, you believe. Trent Edwards is a legitimate passer who doesnt get picked often. USC will score alot of points here, but Im not so sure the defense can keep the Teevens offense out of the end zone less than three times. A late score could decide this spread. (USC 31, STANFORD 28)
Current record:
Five Star Picks: 4-2
Four Star Picks: 5-2
Three Star Picks: 2-5
Two Star Picks: 5-2
One Star Picks: 1-2
Overall: 17-13
Not bad for two weeks without really having any good information. Basically, this says that if I give you a high star game, its a winner. Three stars mean I can go either way, so avoid it. I like a game there, but have reservations. Apparently, my reservations have been correct. Note that one star picks are throw away, total caution into the wind picks. The key picks are the two stars. They are gut picks, where one team shows me something, and the trend is not in their favor, and I am going against it. 5-2 means my guy is often right. On to the picks:
***** 5 Star Picks
Notre Dame (-11.5) v. Washington: UW is just not good. A blow out for ND means by 14, but it should be enough here. Look for a 24-10 game, with ND displaying a more disciplined running game, and a more stout defense. (ND 38, WAS 13)
Virginia (-25.5) v. Syracuse: The Cuse put 37 on Buffalo. Big deal. They struggled to beat Cincy, and were dogs in that game. Purdue shut them out, and Virginia's defense is light years ahead of Purdue. At home, Marcus Hagan gets rolling, and Chris Canty and the boys hand another donut on the inept Cuse offense. (VIRGINIA 31, SYRACUSE 10)
Wisconsin (-2.5) v. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I have no idea why this game is so close. PSU has an exceptional offense, but were dismantled by BC. Wisc has won ugly, but they are impossible to beat at Camp Randall. This may be one ugly game, but Booker Stanley is more than enough at RB to make this a 3 point win.
(WISCONSIN 16, PENN STATE 3)
**** 4 Star Games
Kansas (+6.5) v. Texas Tech: Mike Mangino has a different team in Kansas than they have seen in the past. Ignore the 70 Tech hung on a TCU team that gave up 45 to Northwestern. Kansas plays strong defense, and should hang within the number at home. (TEX TECH 31, KANSAS 30)
Arkansas (-5.5) v. Alabama: Everyone likes the 3-0 Tide to compete, but without QB Brodie Croyle they will be lose. Ark took Tex to the wire, and QB Matt Jones is as good a running/passing QB there is in the nation. Very Major Harris-like. (ARK 27, ALABAMA 10)
Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Ball State: I know nothing here, other than WM has been very competitive, and Ball State stinks. Total gut feeling based on performance. (BALL ST 41, W MICH 14)
*** 3 Star Games
Wake Forest (+1.5) v. Boston College: This game opened with Wake a 2 point favorite, and I liked it then. I dont know where all the BC love is coming from, but Wake has proven to be better than advertised. RB Chris Barclay is for real, and should be enough to keep Wake in the game. The home field advantage is worth three points at least, and Pistol Paul goes down to the Deacons. (WF 17, BC 14)
Rice (+32.5) @ Texas: Traditionally, teams have a tough time preparing for the wish bone that Rice uses, but Texas has had two weeks, so they might blow the Owls out. Rice comes in with the best rushing defense in the nation, and Tex the best rushing offense in the nation. If the run-happy Owls can grind clock against the Horns, they should be able to keep the opposing offense off the field long enough to remain within the number. (TEXAS 35, RICE 13)
** 2 Star Picks:
Iowa (+13) @ Michigan: Something about this game stinks. Both are coming off subpar performances, but Iowa was horrible. Their defense and their offense were terrible. However, they are better defensively then they showed, and Michigan is hardly Arizona State. Iowa traditionally plays Michigan well, and I would take a Kirk Ferenz coached team over LLoyd Carr any day. Michigan just has better talent here, but they are not better prepared. (MICHIGAN 30, IOWA 17)
Air Force (+22) @ Utah: Utah is great, no doubt. But this is another case of the wishbone being tough to prepare for. The Utes should own the Falcons, but perhaps not enough to stay within 22. AF surprised UNLV at home last week, and should be playing with the confidence that they are a better team than they showed in week 1. (UTAH 49, AIR FORCE 35)
South Carolina (-14.5) v. Troy State: Troy was a darling pick until crapping on themselves last week. The win over Missouri has lost its luster, and after playing Georgia to a stalemate, the Gamecocks are showing to be better than a middle of the pack SEC team. They should win this game by 3 scores easily.
(SO CAR 17, TROY 7)
New Mexico (-6) @ New Mexico State: NMSt is a bad team, and has played some close games over their head. NM has shown to be a contender in the conference, and should demonstrate better athletes over the Aggies. (NEW MEXICO 38, NMST 13)
* 1 Freaking Star Games
Stanford (+21.5) v. USC: Just crazy talk. But when an offense is averaging 40+ ppg, you believe. Trent Edwards is a legitimate passer who doesnt get picked often. USC will score alot of points here, but Im not so sure the defense can keep the Teevens offense out of the end zone less than three times. A late score could decide this spread. (USC 31, STANFORD 28)
posted by Consigliari at 8:37 PM
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