October 8, 2005
Last week was another average week, with A-C finishing at 8-9. The D picks were "lean" picks, only designed to get you thinking in one direction or another. They obviously were awful leans, but they were based on no research.
Last Week: 8-9 (.471)
Year to Date: 58-39-3 (.610)
This week, I have done my research, and actually feel good about most picks. Here are your picks for the weekend with spreads based on sportsbook.com, which is where I make my plays . I can say that I will play all picks listed:
**A**
Louisville (-13) v. North Carolina: At home, Louisville is dominating. They had their problems at So Fla, but lost that game due to miscues and special teams play. One of those fluke games that is not very indicative of this team's talent. They are 7th in the nation in offense, going against a UNC secondary giving up 237 yards per game passing. UNC meanwhile will have trouble keeping Elvis Dumerville off of their QB.
Predicted Score: Louisville 45, UNC 21
Actual Score: Louisville 69, UNC 14 (W)
Washington St (-14) v. Stanford: Washington State puts up 340 yard per game passing, going against Stanford's 115th ranked passing defense. What makes that more pathetic is that Stanford has managed to have such a poor passing defense against the likes of Navy and UC Davis. Wazzu has an explosive offense, and should have little trouble keeping a Stanford offense in check, as the Cardinal still have battles at every major position.
Predicted Score: Washington State 42, Stanford 17
Actual Score: Stanford 27, Washington St 24 (L)
Arkansas (-26.5) v. UL-Monroe: ULM can't move the ball, and they have played mostly Sun Belt opponents, managint 327 ypg of offense. Meanwhile, ULM has a 101st ranked rush defense going against Arkansas' 4th ranked rushing offense (278 ypg). This is a must win, and the 'Backs must make a statement.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 48, ULM 14
Actual Score: Arkansas 44, ULM 15 (W)
Navy (-1) . Air Force: Navy has been up and down, and certainly not as dominant as in the past to years. However, AF has demonstrated that they do not have the horses to compete with even average teams. AF's QB is a very good talent, but Navy at home will have the extra juice that only a rivalry can bring. Navy has a strong running game, and will control this game from beginning to end.
Predicted Score: Navy 24, Air Force 20
Actual Score: Navy 27, Air Force 24 (W)
**B**
Boston College (-7) v. Virginia: BC boasts a potent running game led by what may be the best O-line in the nation. After giving up 300 yards to Maryland last week, they should have alot of trouble stopping the Eagles in Boston. The biggest issue is the health of QB Quentin Porter for BC, but VA has bigger injury issues, namely LB Ahmad Brooks.
Predicted Score: Boston College 35, Virginia 20
Actual Score: Boston College 28, Virginia 17 (W)
Maryland (-28) @ Temple: Very simply put, Temple is awful. They have done nothing to lessen the impression that they are one of the worst teams in Div I. They gave up 70 to an inconsistent Bowling Green team last week, and should have trouble with a Terps team that has been running downhill over people lately.
Predicted Score: Maryland 38, Temple 3
Actual Score: Maryland 38, Temple 7 (W)
West Virginia (-4) @ Rutgers: After watching Rutgers dominate Pitt last week, the immediate reaction is to jump on the Scarlet bandwagon. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a very strong West Virginia team. No. 8 in total def, WB is giving up 145 passing ypg. Meanwhile, Rutgers is 109th in passing def, and benefitted from the absolute confusion in the Pitt passing game last year.
Predicted Score: West Virginia 31, Rutgers 17
Actual Score: West Virginia 27, Rutgers 14 (W)
Oklahoma (+14) @ Texas: The diciest game on the board, there is something forbidden about giving two touchdowns in a rivalry game of this level OK had trouble with TCU and UCLA, yes, but as a young team, it takes time to find your groove. Dropping 42 on KSt will go along way towards providing the Sooners with confidence. Take the points and the emotion as long as A Peterson will play, as he is currently probable.
Predicted Score: Texas 31, OK 20
Actual Score: Texas 45, OK 12 (L)
Missouri (-4.5) @ Oklahoma St: This reeks of a trendy pick, since Col just got done smoking Ok St in Stillwater. However, despite their efforts against OK, Missouri has a very good offense, while Ok St has shown nothing by problems moving the football. Ok St is currently 103rd in total offense, and has managed this ineptitude against the likes of Montana State, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State.
Predicted Score: Missouri 27, Ok St 10
Actual Score: Missouri 37, OK St 31 (W)
Texas Tech (-4) @ Nebraska: The Neb defense is solid, having sacked the QB 26 times in the first four games. If Tech can keep the BlackShirts off of Cody Hodges, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gave up 317 yards to Brett Meyers last week. In addition, the Tech defense is likely to be overlooked, but they have the talent to stifle an average Husker offense. This game could be close, so tread lightly.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 27, Nebraska 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 34, Nebraska 31 (L)
**C**
Florida State (-21.5) v. Wake Forest: Some may look at WF's 211 rushing ypg, but of more importance is Florida State's defense allowing only 73 ypg on the ground. WF has become a much better team since Cory Randolph was moved from WR back to QB, but this FSU defense is only giving up 12 points per game, and will likely continue to dominate. The wild card is QB Drew Weatherford. If he struggles, FSU wont cover. If he continues to improve, FSU should win in a walk.
Predicted Score: FSU 35, WF 7
Actual Score: FSU 41, WF 24 (L)
Ohio St (-3.5) @ Penn St: Minnesota may not be a top 5 team, but beating them was a major coup for the Nittany Lions, and they are bound to have a let down. Ohio St is one of the top 3 teams in the nation, regardless of their loss to Texas, and are continuing to get better. After throttling Iowa, they should have the speed and toughness to shut down the PSU defense.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 27, Penn St 10
Actual Score: Penn St 17, Ohio St 10 (L)
UCLA (-1) v. Cal: Alot of public money is pushing this number towards Cal. I originally thought Cal looked like an attractive pick, especially after the problems UCLA had last week. But this is a test Bruins team going against a team who has made their bones against nobodys like Illinois, Arizona, and New Mexico St. The Cal offense and run defense are both very good, but the Bruins have an experienced defense and steadily improving offense. They wont blow out the Bears, but the should win.
Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Cal 28
Actual Score: UCLA 47, Cal 41 (W)
Georgia (+3) @ Tennessee: I have been back and forth on this game, but the recent health problems for Rick Claussen lead me to think Georgia will pull out a squeaker. No teams are evenly matched as these two. Tenn has the 4th best rush defense, but Georgia's strength is a mobile QB and a three headed running attack, which means they can always have a fresh set of legs in the backfield. This will be a dog fight from start to finish.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 21, Georgia 20
Actual Score: Georgia 27, Tennessee 14 (W)
OVER/UNDERS -
Miami/Duke UNDER 43.5: Miami will get a shutout, but they are going against a decent secondary which means they will be running the ball alot. Tyrone Moss will go for 170, and Miami wins 35-0. (L)
Cincy/Pitt UNDER 52: This number is very high considering Pitt struggles with everyone, and Cincy is a young, ineffective offensive team. Who wins is meaningless. (L)
Army/Central Michigan UNDER 52: Army has its moments, but they are not a juggernaut. Both teams run the ball well, and should battle on the ground to a final score somewhere in the mid 40s. (W)
**LEANS**
Wyoming (-6) v TCU: Tye Gunn is doubtful, and Wyoming is rolling, especially at home. (L)
West Michigan (-12) v Ball St: If Temple didn't exist, Ball St would be the worst team in Div I. (L)
Iowa (+5) @ Purdue: The Boilermakers were exposed, and Kirk Ferentz is the kind of coach who takes advantage when he sees weakness. 5 seems like a lot of points for two evenly matched teams, who were grossly overrated at the outset. (W)
Utah (+4.5) @ Col St: CSU has been strong lately, while Utah is very enigmatic. I expect them to put it together this week, albeit on the road. The Rams are a good team, but are they 5 pts better than Utah? Me thinks not. (W)
Last Week: 8-9 (.471)
Year to Date: 58-39-3 (.610)
This week, I have done my research, and actually feel good about most picks. Here are your picks for the weekend with spreads based on sportsbook.com, which is where I make my plays . I can say that I will play all picks listed:
**A**
Louisville (-13) v. North Carolina: At home, Louisville is dominating. They had their problems at So Fla, but lost that game due to miscues and special teams play. One of those fluke games that is not very indicative of this team's talent. They are 7th in the nation in offense, going against a UNC secondary giving up 237 yards per game passing. UNC meanwhile will have trouble keeping Elvis Dumerville off of their QB.
Predicted Score: Louisville 45, UNC 21
Actual Score: Louisville 69, UNC 14 (W)
Washington St (-14) v. Stanford: Washington State puts up 340 yard per game passing, going against Stanford's 115th ranked passing defense. What makes that more pathetic is that Stanford has managed to have such a poor passing defense against the likes of Navy and UC Davis. Wazzu has an explosive offense, and should have little trouble keeping a Stanford offense in check, as the Cardinal still have battles at every major position.
Predicted Score: Washington State 42, Stanford 17
Actual Score: Stanford 27, Washington St 24 (L)
Arkansas (-26.5) v. UL-Monroe: ULM can't move the ball, and they have played mostly Sun Belt opponents, managint 327 ypg of offense. Meanwhile, ULM has a 101st ranked rush defense going against Arkansas' 4th ranked rushing offense (278 ypg). This is a must win, and the 'Backs must make a statement.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 48, ULM 14
Actual Score: Arkansas 44, ULM 15 (W)
Navy (-1) . Air Force: Navy has been up and down, and certainly not as dominant as in the past to years. However, AF has demonstrated that they do not have the horses to compete with even average teams. AF's QB is a very good talent, but Navy at home will have the extra juice that only a rivalry can bring. Navy has a strong running game, and will control this game from beginning to end.
Predicted Score: Navy 24, Air Force 20
Actual Score: Navy 27, Air Force 24 (W)
**B**
Boston College (-7) v. Virginia: BC boasts a potent running game led by what may be the best O-line in the nation. After giving up 300 yards to Maryland last week, they should have alot of trouble stopping the Eagles in Boston. The biggest issue is the health of QB Quentin Porter for BC, but VA has bigger injury issues, namely LB Ahmad Brooks.
Predicted Score: Boston College 35, Virginia 20
Actual Score: Boston College 28, Virginia 17 (W)
Maryland (-28) @ Temple: Very simply put, Temple is awful. They have done nothing to lessen the impression that they are one of the worst teams in Div I. They gave up 70 to an inconsistent Bowling Green team last week, and should have trouble with a Terps team that has been running downhill over people lately.
Predicted Score: Maryland 38, Temple 3
Actual Score: Maryland 38, Temple 7 (W)
West Virginia (-4) @ Rutgers: After watching Rutgers dominate Pitt last week, the immediate reaction is to jump on the Scarlet bandwagon. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a very strong West Virginia team. No. 8 in total def, WB is giving up 145 passing ypg. Meanwhile, Rutgers is 109th in passing def, and benefitted from the absolute confusion in the Pitt passing game last year.
Predicted Score: West Virginia 31, Rutgers 17
Actual Score: West Virginia 27, Rutgers 14 (W)
Oklahoma (+14) @ Texas: The diciest game on the board, there is something forbidden about giving two touchdowns in a rivalry game of this level OK had trouble with TCU and UCLA, yes, but as a young team, it takes time to find your groove. Dropping 42 on KSt will go along way towards providing the Sooners with confidence. Take the points and the emotion as long as A Peterson will play, as he is currently probable.
Predicted Score: Texas 31, OK 20
Actual Score: Texas 45, OK 12 (L)
Missouri (-4.5) @ Oklahoma St: This reeks of a trendy pick, since Col just got done smoking Ok St in Stillwater. However, despite their efforts against OK, Missouri has a very good offense, while Ok St has shown nothing by problems moving the football. Ok St is currently 103rd in total offense, and has managed this ineptitude against the likes of Montana State, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State.
Predicted Score: Missouri 27, Ok St 10
Actual Score: Missouri 37, OK St 31 (W)
Texas Tech (-4) @ Nebraska: The Neb defense is solid, having sacked the QB 26 times in the first four games. If Tech can keep the BlackShirts off of Cody Hodges, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gave up 317 yards to Brett Meyers last week. In addition, the Tech defense is likely to be overlooked, but they have the talent to stifle an average Husker offense. This game could be close, so tread lightly.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 27, Nebraska 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 34, Nebraska 31 (L)
**C**
Florida State (-21.5) v. Wake Forest: Some may look at WF's 211 rushing ypg, but of more importance is Florida State's defense allowing only 73 ypg on the ground. WF has become a much better team since Cory Randolph was moved from WR back to QB, but this FSU defense is only giving up 12 points per game, and will likely continue to dominate. The wild card is QB Drew Weatherford. If he struggles, FSU wont cover. If he continues to improve, FSU should win in a walk.
Predicted Score: FSU 35, WF 7
Actual Score: FSU 41, WF 24 (L)
Ohio St (-3.5) @ Penn St: Minnesota may not be a top 5 team, but beating them was a major coup for the Nittany Lions, and they are bound to have a let down. Ohio St is one of the top 3 teams in the nation, regardless of their loss to Texas, and are continuing to get better. After throttling Iowa, they should have the speed and toughness to shut down the PSU defense.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 27, Penn St 10
Actual Score: Penn St 17, Ohio St 10 (L)
UCLA (-1) v. Cal: Alot of public money is pushing this number towards Cal. I originally thought Cal looked like an attractive pick, especially after the problems UCLA had last week. But this is a test Bruins team going against a team who has made their bones against nobodys like Illinois, Arizona, and New Mexico St. The Cal offense and run defense are both very good, but the Bruins have an experienced defense and steadily improving offense. They wont blow out the Bears, but the should win.
Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Cal 28
Actual Score: UCLA 47, Cal 41 (W)
Georgia (+3) @ Tennessee: I have been back and forth on this game, but the recent health problems for Rick Claussen lead me to think Georgia will pull out a squeaker. No teams are evenly matched as these two. Tenn has the 4th best rush defense, but Georgia's strength is a mobile QB and a three headed running attack, which means they can always have a fresh set of legs in the backfield. This will be a dog fight from start to finish.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 21, Georgia 20
Actual Score: Georgia 27, Tennessee 14 (W)
OVER/UNDERS -
Miami/Duke UNDER 43.5: Miami will get a shutout, but they are going against a decent secondary which means they will be running the ball alot. Tyrone Moss will go for 170, and Miami wins 35-0. (L)
Cincy/Pitt UNDER 52: This number is very high considering Pitt struggles with everyone, and Cincy is a young, ineffective offensive team. Who wins is meaningless. (L)
Army/Central Michigan UNDER 52: Army has its moments, but they are not a juggernaut. Both teams run the ball well, and should battle on the ground to a final score somewhere in the mid 40s. (W)
**LEANS**
Wyoming (-6) v TCU: Tye Gunn is doubtful, and Wyoming is rolling, especially at home. (L)
West Michigan (-12) v Ball St: If Temple didn't exist, Ball St would be the worst team in Div I. (L)
Iowa (+5) @ Purdue: The Boilermakers were exposed, and Kirk Ferentz is the kind of coach who takes advantage when he sees weakness. 5 seems like a lot of points for two evenly matched teams, who were grossly overrated at the outset. (W)
Utah (+4.5) @ Col St: CSU has been strong lately, while Utah is very enigmatic. I expect them to put it together this week, albeit on the road. The Rams are a good team, but are they 5 pts better than Utah? Me thinks not. (W)
posted by Consigliari at 4:26 PM
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