Games of September 24th, 2005
Good to date, but we have only had three weeks to go by. Week four should be the first true litmus test, as the odds makers have caught on to who is good, and who isn't. Never again will we get 6.5 for a Michigan State at Notre Dame, so finding value is becoming more and more difficult. As the lines shrink, taking alot of chalk no longer seems like such a bad idea. Here are this week's thoughts. The letter in parentheses represents the value on the game for betting purposes. A is a good bet, while a D is only a lean, and wagers should be smaller. In addition, I am now adding a predicted score:
Iowa (+7) @ Ohio State (B): This line is too high, because Iowa struggled with Iowa State, but that game was a rivalry game, and Drew Tate got hurt during the game. Ohio St is more talented, but Iowa is better coached. Also, OSU lost to Texas because Texas had better QB play, a problem that will keep this game close as well. Look for the Iowa linebackers to bottle up the Buckeye running game.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 23, Iowa 17
Actual Score: Ohio St 31, Iowa 6 [L]
Va Tech (-11) v. Georgia Tech (A): Va Tech is so much better than people think. Marcus Vick is overrated, but is good enough to keep this offense afloat. The defense will bottle up PJ Daniels, and force the injured Reggie Ball to beat them.
Predicted Score: VT 28, GT 14
Actual Score: Va Tech 51, Ga Tech 7 [W]
Penn St/Northwestern UNDER 50.5 (C): The Wildcats showed that they could only muster 21 pts against a decent Arizona St defense. The Penn St defense is much better, while their offense probably topped out for the season at 40 pts last week. Look for a 31-17 victory for the Nittany Lions.
Predicted Score: Penn State 31, NW 17
Actual Score: Penn State 34, NW 29 - Total Pts 63 [L]
Mich St (-10.5) @ Illinois (C): Many are saying the Illini are much improved, but based on what? Home wins against Rutgers (by 3) and San Jose St? They were beaten by 15 by a Cal team missing its best player, and the Spartans will stomp on the Illini, regardless of the locale.
Predicted Score: MSU 38, Illinois 21
Actual Score: MSU 61, Ill 14 [W]
Clemson (-2.5) v. Boston College (C): The Florida St game told us two things: The BC offense is better than we thought, and the BC defense is worse than we thought. Clemson has been explosive, dropping 30 on a fantastic Miami defense last week. BC will score plenty, but not enough. 35-30 seems reasonable.
Predicted Score: Clemson 35, BC 30
Actual Score: BC 23, Clemson 20 [L]
Wake Forest (-2) v. Maryland (A): The bottom line is that Maryland is not very good. I totally overrated them last week, and learned my lesson. Wake will run the ball down Maryland's throat, and their home field advantage should be enough to constitute a 3 point victory.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27, Maryland 20
Actual Score: Maryland 22, Wake Forest 12 [L]
Ohio (-4) v. Kent St (C): Ohio beat Pitt, but that win is slowly looking less valuable. Kent has struggled on the road, and Ohio's defense should step up this week.
Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Kent 10
Actual Score: Ohio 35, Kent 32 [L]
TCU (+3.5) @ BYU (D): Not too confident in this pick. TCU's loss at SMU makes me skeptical, but they seemed to have gotten back on track last week. BYU has had trouble scoring, and the TCU defense should make sure that continues.
Predicted Score: TCU 17, BYU 14
Actual Score: TCU 51, BYU 50 [W]
Alabama (-15) v. Arkansas (B): I was wrong about Alabama as well, as they really took it to So Carolina. They had better athletes, and Brodie Croyle finally looked more consistent. If he can maintain his level of composure, they will destroy a young Arkansas team that should be emotionally drained coming off destruction at the hands of USC.
Predicted Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 14
Actual Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 13 [L]
Notre Dame/Washington UNDER 54 (A): There is no legitimate reason for this over/under to be so high. Wash has had some big scoring games, but against considerably poor competition. Against more talented teams, like Cal, they have struggled. Notre Dame scored 41 points last week, but in desperation. Look for the Irish to jump ahead, then lean on the running game.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 34, Washington 7
Actual Score: Notre Dame 36, Washington 17 - Total Pts 53 [W]
Miami-FL (-14) v. Colorado (B): Miami put on a display of the real Hurricans against Clemson last week, scoring 36 points on the road. Colorado has done a great job rebuilding, but they are still considerably outclassed by this Miami team. The defense should bottle up Joe Klatt, and Tyrone Moss and co. should run for days.
Predicted Score: Miami 35, Colorado 9
Actual Score: Miami 23, Colorado 3 [W]
USC (-21) @ Oregon (D): I'd love to take Oregon and the points, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even on the road, against an improved Duck team, I don't see USC letting up one bit. Too many weapons means alot of points. Oregon gave up 21 to Houston, then 27 to Fresno. They might surrender 40+ to the Trojans ,who will solve Kellen Clemmons, leaving the Ducks with a limited offense.
Predicted Score: USC 42, Oregon 14
Actual Score: USC 45, Oregon 13 [W]
Marshall (-3.5) @ Central Florida (C): Marshall is Marshall. They always have a decent offense, and a good mid-major squad. This year is no different. They won't be as dominant as years past, but they can win the games they should, which includes this game at the Golden Knights, who struggled with a decent So Florida team last week, but were still beaten by 17.
Predicted Score: Marshall 28, C Fla 24
Actual Score: CFU 23, Marshall 13 [L]
Tulsa (-1.5) v. Memphis (A+): Roll on Golden Hurricane. After destroying No Texas last week, they should lay the wood to an average Memphis team, regardless of the presence of their All American running back. Look for the Tulsa offense to roll up a good amount of points, while the defense keeps with the bend don't break philosophy.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 31, Memphis 28
Actual Score: Tulsa 37, Memphis 31 [W]
Michigan (-2.5) @ Wisconsin (C): Last week, the Wolverines got back to normal, and dropped a 55-0 on poor Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Wisconsin took a step back and struggled to score 14 points against North Carolina. Wisc has shown they are weak against the pass, and Chad Henne should take advantage of them. This wil not be a blow out, but Michigan has many more weapons, and should win somewhat comfortably.
Predicted Score: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Actual Score: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20 [L]
SMU (+3.5) v. Tulane (C): Tulane stinks, and SMU beat TCU at home the week after TCU beat Oklahoma. Call it a hunch.
Predicted Score: SMU 24, Tulane 20
Actual Score: Tulane 31, SMU 10 [L]
Arizona State (-7) @ Oregon State (A): ASU is a very good team, who will be the Trojans' toughest competition in the Pac 10 along with UCLA. Their defense is underrated, and their offense has shown the ability to run the ball alot better than expected. Yes, it is a road game, but Oregon State can't stop anyone. They will get their points, but will simply be outscored.
Predicted Score: Arizona St 42, Oregon St 27
Actual Score: ASU 42, OSU 24 [W]
Iowa (+7) @ Ohio State (B): This line is too high, because Iowa struggled with Iowa State, but that game was a rivalry game, and Drew Tate got hurt during the game. Ohio St is more talented, but Iowa is better coached. Also, OSU lost to Texas because Texas had better QB play, a problem that will keep this game close as well. Look for the Iowa linebackers to bottle up the Buckeye running game.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 23, Iowa 17
Actual Score: Ohio St 31, Iowa 6 [L]
Va Tech (-11) v. Georgia Tech (A): Va Tech is so much better than people think. Marcus Vick is overrated, but is good enough to keep this offense afloat. The defense will bottle up PJ Daniels, and force the injured Reggie Ball to beat them.
Predicted Score: VT 28, GT 14
Actual Score: Va Tech 51, Ga Tech 7 [W]
Penn St/Northwestern UNDER 50.5 (C): The Wildcats showed that they could only muster 21 pts against a decent Arizona St defense. The Penn St defense is much better, while their offense probably topped out for the season at 40 pts last week. Look for a 31-17 victory for the Nittany Lions.
Predicted Score: Penn State 31, NW 17
Actual Score: Penn State 34, NW 29 - Total Pts 63 [L]
Mich St (-10.5) @ Illinois (C): Many are saying the Illini are much improved, but based on what? Home wins against Rutgers (by 3) and San Jose St? They were beaten by 15 by a Cal team missing its best player, and the Spartans will stomp on the Illini, regardless of the locale.
Predicted Score: MSU 38, Illinois 21
Actual Score: MSU 61, Ill 14 [W]
Clemson (-2.5) v. Boston College (C): The Florida St game told us two things: The BC offense is better than we thought, and the BC defense is worse than we thought. Clemson has been explosive, dropping 30 on a fantastic Miami defense last week. BC will score plenty, but not enough. 35-30 seems reasonable.
Predicted Score: Clemson 35, BC 30
Actual Score: BC 23, Clemson 20 [L]
Wake Forest (-2) v. Maryland (A): The bottom line is that Maryland is not very good. I totally overrated them last week, and learned my lesson. Wake will run the ball down Maryland's throat, and their home field advantage should be enough to constitute a 3 point victory.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27, Maryland 20
Actual Score: Maryland 22, Wake Forest 12 [L]
Ohio (-4) v. Kent St (C): Ohio beat Pitt, but that win is slowly looking less valuable. Kent has struggled on the road, and Ohio's defense should step up this week.
Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Kent 10
Actual Score: Ohio 35, Kent 32 [L]
TCU (+3.5) @ BYU (D): Not too confident in this pick. TCU's loss at SMU makes me skeptical, but they seemed to have gotten back on track last week. BYU has had trouble scoring, and the TCU defense should make sure that continues.
Predicted Score: TCU 17, BYU 14
Actual Score: TCU 51, BYU 50 [W]
Alabama (-15) v. Arkansas (B): I was wrong about Alabama as well, as they really took it to So Carolina. They had better athletes, and Brodie Croyle finally looked more consistent. If he can maintain his level of composure, they will destroy a young Arkansas team that should be emotionally drained coming off destruction at the hands of USC.
Predicted Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 14
Actual Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 13 [L]
Notre Dame/Washington UNDER 54 (A): There is no legitimate reason for this over/under to be so high. Wash has had some big scoring games, but against considerably poor competition. Against more talented teams, like Cal, they have struggled. Notre Dame scored 41 points last week, but in desperation. Look for the Irish to jump ahead, then lean on the running game.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 34, Washington 7
Actual Score: Notre Dame 36, Washington 17 - Total Pts 53 [W]
Miami-FL (-14) v. Colorado (B): Miami put on a display of the real Hurricans against Clemson last week, scoring 36 points on the road. Colorado has done a great job rebuilding, but they are still considerably outclassed by this Miami team. The defense should bottle up Joe Klatt, and Tyrone Moss and co. should run for days.
Predicted Score: Miami 35, Colorado 9
Actual Score: Miami 23, Colorado 3 [W]
USC (-21) @ Oregon (D): I'd love to take Oregon and the points, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even on the road, against an improved Duck team, I don't see USC letting up one bit. Too many weapons means alot of points. Oregon gave up 21 to Houston, then 27 to Fresno. They might surrender 40+ to the Trojans ,who will solve Kellen Clemmons, leaving the Ducks with a limited offense.
Predicted Score: USC 42, Oregon 14
Actual Score: USC 45, Oregon 13 [W]
Marshall (-3.5) @ Central Florida (C): Marshall is Marshall. They always have a decent offense, and a good mid-major squad. This year is no different. They won't be as dominant as years past, but they can win the games they should, which includes this game at the Golden Knights, who struggled with a decent So Florida team last week, but were still beaten by 17.
Predicted Score: Marshall 28, C Fla 24
Actual Score: CFU 23, Marshall 13 [L]
Tulsa (-1.5) v. Memphis (A+): Roll on Golden Hurricane. After destroying No Texas last week, they should lay the wood to an average Memphis team, regardless of the presence of their All American running back. Look for the Tulsa offense to roll up a good amount of points, while the defense keeps with the bend don't break philosophy.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 31, Memphis 28
Actual Score: Tulsa 37, Memphis 31 [W]
Michigan (-2.5) @ Wisconsin (C): Last week, the Wolverines got back to normal, and dropped a 55-0 on poor Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Wisconsin took a step back and struggled to score 14 points against North Carolina. Wisc has shown they are weak against the pass, and Chad Henne should take advantage of them. This wil not be a blow out, but Michigan has many more weapons, and should win somewhat comfortably.
Predicted Score: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Actual Score: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20 [L]
SMU (+3.5) v. Tulane (C): Tulane stinks, and SMU beat TCU at home the week after TCU beat Oklahoma. Call it a hunch.
Predicted Score: SMU 24, Tulane 20
Actual Score: Tulane 31, SMU 10 [L]
Arizona State (-7) @ Oregon State (A): ASU is a very good team, who will be the Trojans' toughest competition in the Pac 10 along with UCLA. Their defense is underrated, and their offense has shown the ability to run the ball alot better than expected. Yes, it is a road game, but Oregon State can't stop anyone. They will get their points, but will simply be outscored.
Predicted Score: Arizona St 42, Oregon St 27
Actual Score: ASU 42, OSU 24 [W]
posted by Consigliari at 2:22 PM
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