October 15, 2005

It's amazing what a little time and analysis can do for a record. After consecutive weeks of .500 level picks, this past weekend was a return to normalcy. A 9-5 finish for A-B-C picks is a solid performance, especially considering that Wake Forest covered the Florida State pick with a TD with 20 seconds left, and Texas Tech won by 3 while giving 4 . Getting those two games back would have produced a spectacular week, but we will take 9-5.

Obviously, the most disheartening performance came from Washington State, who absolutely turned into a pumpkin for no reason what so ever, allowing a dismal Stanford team to beat them in their own house. However, a late Navy rally made up for that awful game and left a sweet taste in the mouths of many loyal readers.

This week will be a tough one, and even the top tier picks don't feel as strong as week's past. However, we trudge along and offer these selections for your review:

Last Week: 9-5 (.643)

Year-to-Date: 67-44-3 (.614)

**A**

Bowling Green (-23) @ Buffalo: BG started off horribly, blowing games to Wisconsin and Boise St. Lately, however, they have been scoring points in bunches, including 70 at Temple. Buffalo on the other hand has scored 31 pts in 5 games, all losses. The problems for BG will be a terrible run defense, though it likely wont be tested by Buffalo, and Buffalo's pass defense, coming in allowing 150 ypg. Look for Omar Jacobs to test that defense, but mostly for PJ Pope to run wild and control the clock.

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 45, Buffalo, 14
Actual Score: Bowling Green 27, Buffalo 7 (L)

Air Force (-13.5) v. UNLV: Admittedly, this line is a tad high. AF has been trying to find their identity, and despite losing, they showed they can be an explosive passing offense against Navy. This will come in handy against an awful UNLV pass defense, that is nonetheless 9th in the nation against the run. AF's biggest weakness is its lack of a pass rush (only 5 sacks) but that shouldnt be a problem against a Rebels team starting a freshman backup who has had little success thus far.

Predicted Score: Air Force 31, UNLV 14
Actual Score: Air Force 42, UNLV 7 (W)

UConn (-7.5) @ Cincinnati: This number feels like it should be higher. UConn is no. 1 in the nation in total defense, and has the 9th best rushing attack. Cincy meanwhile has struggled to score points all season (19 ppg), and brings the 80th ranked defense into the game. Uconn starts a rookie QB with little passing ability. However, his devotion to running the ball will keep him from making the mistakes that can cost a heavy favorite. UConn will control the game and limit the Bearcats to under 10 pts.

Predicted Score: UConn 28, Cincy 7
Actual Score: Cincy 28, UConn 17 (L)

Nevada (-1.5) v La Tech: This game features two high powered passing attacks. Nevada has taken awhile to get thier offense in order, but the last two games have shown signs that the Wolfpack have got things together. La Tech's lambasting of Hawaii is overrated, as the Warriors were dogged by long travel. This will be a high scoring affair, and even a 3 pt win will cover this, so take the home team.

Predicted Score: Nevada 48, La Tech 40
Actual Score: Nevada 37, La Tech 27 (W)

Hawaii (-20) v New Mexico St: Speaking of Hawaii......talk about Jekell and Hyde. On the road, they are putrid, but at home they are the 99 Rams. The have a superb passing game and will exploit the long travel hours all visitors must log. NMS is an awful team, despite their improving offense. They are coming off a 30 point loss at home, and will struggle to keep Hawaii under 50.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 52, NM St 24
Actual Score: Hawaii 49, NM St 28 (W)

**B**

Alabama (-13.5) @ Mississippi: This one looked like a trap at the open, but a more detailed look reveals that Alabama is for real, and likely to take advantage of Ole Miss. So far, the tightest game for the Tide has been with Arkansas, who boasts the 4th best rushing attack in the nation. Against a team like Ole Miss, with the 98th best offense in the nation, the 6th ranked Tide defense will strangle the Rebels. Bama's passing game is hurting with the loss of Tyrone Prothro, but the remaining wide outs are big and fast, and Brodie Croyle will be quite efficient with the 36th best running game taking the pressue off of him

Predicted Score: Alabama 31, Mississippi 10
Actual Score: Alabama 13, Mississippi 10 (L)

Colorado (+17) @ Texas: TX is a juggernaut, no doubt. However, last week's crushing of Oklahoma is not indicative of the kind of result you should expect from all of their games. Admittedly, COL isnt the bastion of consistency you would hope for in an upset candidate, however, they bring a balanced attack to Austin that should be strong enough to cover such a large number. Texas is balanced, with the 11th best offense and 5th best defense. However, their strength is running the ball, and the COL rush defense is 6th in the nation. Factor in the 25th best offense in the nation, and COL should be able to move the ball enough (especially through the air) to keep this close.

Predicted Score: Texas 28, Colorado 17
Actual Score: Texas 42, Colorado 17 (L)

Louisville (-7) @ West Virginia: Tough number, I agree. A touchdown is alot to give when travelling to WV. However, this is not the same WV team that has been tough on their opponents all year. Three key injuries (NT, CB, and RB J Gwaltney) will weaken the 'neers, meaning the 9th ranked WV defense will be significantly hampered, as will their 14th ranked rushing offense. WV is not very effective againt the pass, which is the L'ville bread and butter. The Cards have the 13th ranked rush D, in addition to a strong pass rush lead by DE E Dumerville and his 15 sacks. Look for the Cards to hold the limited WV offense in check long enough to rack up two late touchdowns to pull away.

Predicted Score: Louisville 35, West Virginia 24
Actual Score: West Virginia 46, Louisville 44 (L)

Miami (FLA) (-41) @ Temple: Middle of the season, and I am recommending giving 41! I must be high, because this is a college hoops line, but I still feel like they can cover. The bottom line is that Miami will pitch a shut out. If they dont, they likely wont cover. But with the release of Bobby Wallace as coach of the Owls, its likely this team will mail it in, and against Miami, that will be a disaster. The Canes are trying to hone their passing game, and will look at this game like a passing league game. I doubt Temple crosses the 50.

Predicted Score: Miami 45, Temple 0
Actual Score: Miami 34, Temple 3 (L)

SMU (-2) v East Carolina: I like this game for mostly superficial reasons. ECU is a team that struggles on the road, while SMU is coming off of a win at UAB (not easy) and has a home victory over TCU under its belt. They are an average team, but are no more flawed than ECU. The Pirates have an exceptional passing game (258 ypg), while SMU has a poor secondary. It seems like the recipe for disaster, but I look for SMU to be opportunistic and force ECU's young offense into mistakes.

Predicted Score: SMU 27, East Carolina 21
Actual Score: ECU 24, SMU 17 (L)

Texas Tech (-15) v Kansas St: Would it surprise you to know that Texas Tech has the 20th ranked total defense? Mind you, it has been again mostly cupcakes, but it is indicative of the fast, opportunistic defense the Red Raiders have (5th in turnover margin). Many will point to the 9th ranked KSU passing def, but that has been against Marshall, North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. I expect Hodges to pick them apart while the defense forces KSU's freshman QB into numerous mistakes.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 42, Kansas St 14
Actual Score: Texas Tech 59, Kansas St 20 (W)

LSU (-6) v Florida: The Gators are a MASH unit, to say the least. They are starting former QBs and d-backs at receiver these days, and still squeaking by. Not against LSU. The Tigers may struggle against the pass, but Fla has no running game, allowing for an entire night of nickel defense. They may let the Gators get small yardage underneath, but Fla will be lucky to top 350 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, JaMarcus Russell and the LSU running game have both been getting fat lately as the Tigers have been getting used to the new offense. I expect they won't explode against Florida's 8th ranked defense, but they should be good for 28 pts.

Predicted Score: LSU 28, Florida 17
Actual Score: LSU 21, Florida 17 (L)

USC (-12) @ Notre Dame: THE game of the week, and I predict it will hardly be a game. Alot of experts will have you believe that ND will control the clock with the running game, but with a top back averaging 4.6 ypc, they hardly bring an explosive ground game to the table. Meanwhile, USC boasts the top running game as well as the 4th best passing attack. The Irish won't know whether to stay home or double up deep. The Irish may be able to throw the ball, but USC has been bend don't break in the department, and will likely keep the Irish offense off the field with a steady diet of Bush and White.

Predicted Score: USC 45, Notre Dame 28
Actual Score: USC 34, Notre Dame 31 (L)

UAB (-3) @ Marshall: There is one key issue in this game that should scare the Marshall fan, and that is that Marshall has been turnover prone all season, and now match up with a team ranked 5th in the nation in turnover margin. UAB struggled to score in a loss to SMU, but still managed to throw for over 300 yards. They will continue to move the ball against Marshall, and will fix the glitch that is keeping them out of the end zone.

Predicted Score: UAB 31, Marshal 21
Actual Score: Marshall 20, UAB 19 (L)

Florida State (-7) @ Virginia: Last week was, in a word, a debacle The 7th ranked FSU rushing defense struggled as Wake Forest ran for 247 total yards. This game is about how FSU will react. My guess is that against a Cav team missing its top two lineman (injury and suspension) the FSU front 7 will push into the backfield all game. FSU ranks 10th in passing offense, and will likely pass all day, while keeping VA off balance with draws and screens all day.

Predicted Score: Florida State 34, Virginia 14
Actual Score: Virginia 26, Florida St 21 (L)

**C**

Penn State (+3) @ Michigan: Perhaps Im drinking the kool aid, but I just see too many indications that PSU is the better team in this game, road game or not. They bring the 21st rush offense against the 66th rush defense. In addition, Michigan is 49th in total offense, against a team with the 10th ranked rush defense. PSU's LBs are tremendous, and on offense, they have too much speed for the Michigan defense to dig in. I see them continuing to keep teams off balance with the many different looks they provide. I rank this game low because if Chad Henne figures it out, and can get an explosive performance out of his receivers, the Wolverines could score 35, much like NW was good for 29 against PSU. However, this is a game decided by momentum, and Penn State is running downhill in that department. Look for almost nothing out of Mike Hart this weekend.

Predicted Score: PSU 35, Michigan 28
Actual Score: Michigan 27, Penn St 25 (W)

Cal (-16) v. Oregon State: Im not ecstatic about this game, but I do like it. Cal actually lost to UCLA by 1 (save for a cheap late TD - thank you gambling gods), and managed to score 40 points nonetheless. Their offense is cruising, and its high time their defense get back on track. They are strong against the run, and have good cover guys in the secondary. Except for poor special teams play, they probably would have beaten the Bruins in LA. Now they are back home playing against the 115th defense in the nation. Cal has three healthy RBs this week, each averaging 8.7, 6.1, and 11.9 yards per carry. They are explosive at all times, with the personnel to be well rested. When one wears down, they go to a different weapon. Meanwhile, Oregon St is averaging 349 ypg passing, but QB M Moore has only 7 tds vs 7 ints. Hardly enough to make one worry about the passing game.

Predicted Score: Cal 38, Oregon State 21
Actual Score: Oregon State 23, Cal 20 (L)

Tulsa (-7.5) @ Rice: When Tulsa comes into Houston against an option team giving up 195 rypg, I worry a tad. But this is also a Rice team giving up 507 ypg on defense, and 50 pts a week. Tulsa has had big offensive games, and will likely score into the 40s at least this weekend. Their defense may be pushed around by the Rice running game, but once they get up three touchdowns, the Owls will be forced to abandon their strength. Big rout here.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, Rice 21
Actual Score: Tulsa 41, Rice 21 (W)

--HEAVY LEANS--
[Leans will be considered recommendations this week, and will go into the yearly record. I like these games alot, but not enough to rank them above anything else. Email me or leave a comment if you would like further explanation for any of these games, and I will provide it.]

South Florida (+1) @ Pittsburgh - Pitt 31-17 (L)

Wake Forest (+14) @ Boston College - BC 35-30 (W)

Rutgers (+2) @ Syracuse - Rutgers 31-9 (W)

Indiana (+14.5) @ Iowa - Iowa 38-21 (L)

Michigan State (+6.5) @ Ohio State - Ohio St 35-24 (L)

Colorado State (-2) @ BYU - BYU 24-14 (L)

New Mexico (+7) @ Wyoming - NM 27-24 (W)

Washington (+16) @ Oregon - Oregon 45-21 (L)

Baylor (+2.5) v Nebraska - Nebraska 23-14 (L)

Washington State (+5) v UCLA - UCLA 44-41 (W)

Stanford (+4.5) @ Arizona - Stanford 20-16 (W)