October 22, 2005
Ouch, ouch, ouch. 11-18 last week. 11 wins, 18 bad losses. Some excusable, most, just way off. I tried to interject more analysis, this time studying offensive and defensive units, trying to determine exploitable weaknesses. Well, the only weakness was me. This week, I have added a new factor. In analyzing team defenses and offenses, I was only looking at the numbers, and ignoring what those number meant. Even though a team may give up 200 passing yards per game, the question is: Against who? If the 5 teams they have played average 250 passing yards per game, then that is a solid defense. But if the 5 teams average 150, the passing defense is worse than expected. Therefore, included in the analysis are Variable Ratings. These ratings will tell you whether a defensive unit is over performing or undre performing. A positive variable rating means that the unit is even better than the numbers indicate, while a negative variable rating indicates the unit is even worse than you would think. EXAMPLE: Maryland averages 158 rushing yards per game, but has a (.44) rating. This means that they are averaging 44% fewer yards than they should. Conversely, Virginia Tech gives up 103 rushing yards per game, but has a .72 rating, meaning that they allow 72% fewer yards than they should on average. This would indicate that in a matchup, Va Tech's defense should dominate Maryland's rushing game even more than the numbers indicate. On to the picks!
Last Week: 11-18 (38%)
Year to Date: 78-62-3 (56.7%)
Last Week's A PICKS: 3-2 (60%)
Year to Date A PICKS: 12-6 (67%)
*****A PICKS******
Northern Illinois (-10.5) @ Kent St: Northern Illinois has a strong offense, but their strong passing def will be the difference here, limiting Kent State's excellent passing game. The UNI passing game [273 ypg (.10)] and the rushing game [228 ypg (.25)] will test the weak Kent St defense [230 rush ypg (-.22); 236 pass ypg] . Kent St throws for 288 (.14) ypg, however, UNI allows only 206 with a (.28) variance. This will be a tough game on the road, but the Huskies should have the offensive firepower to pull away late.
Predicted Score: No Illinois 45, Kent St 31
Actual Score:
Houston (+2) @ Mississippi State: My favorite game, as the stats point to a decisive Houston victory. Of course, taking road dogs is never fun, but I like what I see in this matchup. The MSU offense is very weak, but the Cougar offense looks potent enough to overtake a scrappy MSU defense. Houston averages 188 rypg (.25) and 285 pypg (.23), which should be enough to challenge the MSU rush def [124 ypg(.23)] and weak pass def [230 ypg (.05)]. Houston does give up 407 total ypg, but MSU only averages 273, and will be hard pressed to score enough to keep up.
Predicted Score: Houston 28, MSU 17
Actual Score:
Tulsa (-15.5) v SMU: I love this game too. Tulsa at home, against an up and down SMU team, should roll. Tulsa averages 393 tot ypg while SMU allows 416 ypg. Tulsa can run the ball (163) and throw (230) and should have no problem against a Mustang defense that can defend against neither (155, 261). The key stat is the SMU passing off [182 ypg (-.14)] against the very strong Tulsa pass def [139 ypg (.20)]. Tulsa should get up early, and have the passing defense to keep SMU from getting close.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, SMU 14
Actual Score:
Fresno St (-28.5) @ Idaho: Even on the road, it is likely that Fresno will roll once again. Idaho's stats are anemic, most notably a rushing off averaging 60 ypg (-1.40). On the other side, Fresno's defense is strong against both the pass and the run [(.33) and (.19)], while their run game [169 ypg (.15)] should exploit a weak Vandal run defense [172 ypg (-.22)].
Predicted Score: Fresno St 49, Idaho 14
Actual Score
Texas (-17) v. Texas Tech: This game opened at -15, and I still like it. The Longhorns are so strong in every facet, they can afford to divert attention to the Tech passing game, and abandon trying to stop what is actually a very weak run game [101 ypg (-.01)]. The variable indicates that the Raiders are only as strong as the defense they face, and in this case, its a run def allowing 92 ypg with a variance of (1.04), which shows that Texas is not only strong against the run, but they have been shutting down very good offenses. Meanwhile, Tex averages 264 yards on the ground (.47). The big issue is Tech's passing game [472 ypg (.52)] which is just a monster, but the Longhorns have a very solid pass def, enough to force Cody Hodges into too many mistakes [147 ypg (.20)]. And those pass def numbers are from games that have been blowouts, with opponents chucking it late. I like the Longhorns to keep blowing out big numbers, and end the talk of Tex Tech becoming a real player.
Predicted Score: Texas 48, Texas Tech 21
Actual Score:
****B PICKS****
Pittsburgh (-13) v. Syracuse: The Orange are terrible, and Pittsburgh has quietly gotten on a nice run, dominating Cincinnati then South Florida. At home, they should score at will against a struggling Cuse defense. The Orange will fail to move the ball in the air, though they may hamper the Pitt passing game slightly. The Cuse passing offense averages 147 ypg (-.32) vs. the Pitt pass defense giving up 164 ypg (.24)
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 35, Syracuse, 7
Actual Score:
Air Force (PK) v. TCU: If ever there was a pick em, this is it. TCU is tough, but on the road, they should have a difficult time keeping up with a Falcon offense that is on a roll. In addition, the Frogs will likely be without QB Tye Gunn, leaving them without a key offensive weapon. TCU has a strong run game [161 ypg (.13)] but Air Force has an equally tough run def [135 ypg (.15)]. Air Force meanwhile rushes for 252 ypg (.35), which should test a very good TCU rush def [119 ypg (.15)]. The weak Air Force passing game may limit them, but being at home should push them over the edge.
Predicted Score: Air Force 38, TCU 35
Actual Score:
Tennessee (+4) @ Alabama: This game is dead even, in every sense of the word. Tennessee is not spectacular, but they grind out win after win. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off of a poor 13-10 victory over Ole Miss, that showed they arent as explosive without top receiving threat Tyrone Prothro. Both rush defenses are excellent, with Alabama's performing much better statistically [163 ypg (.11) v. 98 ypg (-.07)], but both defenses have been extremely tough [TN 93 ypg (.53) v. Bama 93 ypg (.44)] . I imagine this game will finish well under the number, and come down to a field goal, meaning a +4 will come in handy at game's end.
Predicted Score: Alabama 16, Tennessee 13
Actual Score:
Miami (OH) (-10.5) @ Eastern Michigan: The running games should be the difference here. Mia averages 156 ypg (.08) against EMUs defense of 228 ypg (-.24), while the Mia rush def is giving up 141 yards, but faces a weak EMU run game averaging 101 ypg (-.62). EMU can throw the ball a little, and Mia can't stop it all that well, but against an anemic run game, they should be able to lay back in the soft zone. 10.5 does in fact seem like a little too many points, but the Hawks should just barely cover against an overachieving EMU squad.
Predicted Score: Miami 48, East Michigan 24
Actual Score:
Toledo (-30) v. Buffalo: Home game, and a strong running game to make up for the very strong Buffalo pass defense [156 ypg (.49)]. Toledo averages 221 on the ground (.17) and goes against Buffalo's run def giving up 201 per game (-.29). The key is that Buffalo can not move the ball offensively, averaging 97 and 139 yards per game rushing and passing respectively. The Rockets will run the ball right down the throats of the Bulls.
Predicted Score: Toledo 42, Buffalo 7
Actual Score:
Boise State (-18.5) @ Utah St: Utah State stinks, plain and simple. They average 97 yards on the ground (-.48) and 166 through the air (-.39), meaning that they will struggle mightily against a Boise St defense with var ratings of (.07) and (.10). The key is Boise's 220 rushing ypg (.30) against Utah St's 148 ypg rush def (-.15). The Broncos will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball, until Utah St is ground into the turf.
Predicted Score: Boise State 45, Utah State 14
Actual Score:
Navy (-7) @ Rice: I don't like picking Navy on the road, but Rice seems to get worse and worse each week. Navy struggles with everyone they play, playing many close games. On the road, this may be a 3 point game, but I think they can run the ball well enough to give the Owls fits. Navy averages 267 ypg on the ground (.34) while Rice allows 206 per game (-.20). The difference should be enough to allow Navy to hold the ball, and keep the Rice running game off the field [206 ypg (.17)]. The key is that Rice cannot throw the ball [86 ypg (-.96)] allowing Navy to play 8 in the box all day.
Predicted Score: Navy 35, Rice 14
Actual Score:
***C***
Michgan St (-12.5) v Northwestern: The key stat is MSU's passing off at 318 (.26) v NW's passing def at 319 (-.23). Drew Stanton, the highest rated passer in the nation, should throw at will on the Cats, forcing them to abandon their running game [215 ypg, (.30)] MSU's rush defense is also at 122 ypg, and should bottle up the Cats early on. The only problem is that NW can throw the ball [300+ ypg], and may score late to cover.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 45, Northwestern 30
Actual Score:
Michigan (+2.5) @ Iowa: This game is a real tough call. Iowa has great momentum, and has won 22 in a row at home. However, the stats point to a Michigan resurgence, especially following a hard fought win over a very good Penn St team. MI throws for 225 ypg, while Iowa gives up 238 per game in the air. Iowa has a strong run game [182 ypg (.12)] and an average passing game that should be better [226 ypg (-.12)], yet they go against a Michigan defense that is much better than the stats indicate, with variable ratings of (.32) and (.37) for the rush and pass defenses respectively. I expect the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball, with Chad Henne to have a resurgence.
Predicted Score: Michigan 23, Iowa 20
Actual Score:
Florida State (-30) @ Duke: I really want to take Duke here, but Im going to treat this game the way I treated the Miami game last week. Florida State is coming off of a very tough loss, and will look to make a statement. Poor Duke will just get caught in the way. Duke does have a great pass def [182 ypg (.17)] but FSU has a spectacular passing game [328 ypg (.38)] as well as an excellent run def [93 (.68)] which should keep Duke under 150 total yards. The Duke passing game is non existant [90 ypg (-1.01)]
Predicted Score: Florida State 49, Duke 14
Actual Score:
Nebraska (PK) @ Missouri: Mizzou has been tough lately, but Nebraska has quietly had an excellent season, lead by a spectacular defense. Missouri has great offensive numbers, with 235 passing ypg (.35) and 240 rushing ypg (.15), but they will be hard pressed to match those totals against the Nebraska defense, allowing 224 passing (.14) and 65 rushing (1.05). The key stat is Nebraska's 204 passing ypg against Missouri's passing defense [219 ypg (-.14)]
Predicted Score: Nebraska 27, Missouri 21
Actual Score:
Rutgers (-3.5) @ Uconn: I loved this game when I first saw it, but I have slowly learned to hate it. Statistically, UConn is extremely tough, but they showed how little that matters without an experienced quarterback, losing to a pathetic Cincinnati team. UConn has a very good running game [237 ypg (.36)], but the Rutgers run defense is equally tough [116 ypg (.23)]. And while UConn stops the pass very well [129 ypg (.35)], Rutgers has thrown the ball very well against good passing defenses [237 ypg (.22)]. Last week, UConn lost their back up, a freshman, and are now stuck auditioning third stringers. This should be enough to cost them an otherwise even matchup.
Predicted Score: Rutgers 20, UConn 10
Actual Score:
Oregon State (+9.5) @ UCLA: Don't get me wrong, I love the Bruins and their offense. However, their defense has been a major disappointment, almost costing them a game at Washington State, and threatening to make this week's game against Oregon State a tight one. The Beavers have struggled all season, but they have some surprising numbers. Of course, their passing game [321 ypg (.25)] is very good, and will test a Bruin passing def that looks good on paper, but isn't that spectacular in comparison to the passing games it has faced [187 ypg (.04)]. Couple that with QB Matt Moore coming back to LA after transferring. The key stat is OSUs excellent rush def [112 ypg (.81)] whose variable rating shows that they are even better than the numbers indicate, which should give the very good Bruin run game trouble. OSU's biggest weakness is against the pass, so it will be up to Drew Olson to pull the game out.
Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Oregon State 28
Actual Score:
Penn State (-18) @ Illinois: I didn't want to include this game after the number moved to 18, but I had to. The numbers indicate that the Nittany Lions are at least 28 points better than the Illini, and I have to think a three touchdown victory is doable. PSU averages 203 yards on the ground (.32), and goes against a rush def giving up 227 ypg (-.23). PSU should also be able to throw against a defense allowing 230 ypg. The key stat is that while Illinois averages 150 yards on the ground (.11), the Lions allow 101 per game, with a variable rating of (.96). If the Lions can prevent the Illini from making up those lost yards in the air, they should roll. I believe they have way too much speed for the rebuilding Illini.
Predicted Score: Penn State 38, Illinois 10
Actual Score:
Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona: The Cats gave USC a nice run, then lost at home to Stanford, hardly awe inspiring. Arizona has a terrible offense, even though the passing game has slowly been improving. The run game has a (-.57) variable rating, while Oregon's run def has a (.58). Once the Ducks shut down the running game, they can sit back and keep Zona from moving the ball through the air as well. Meanwhile, Oregon throws for 338 ypg, which should challenge a good zona passing def [192 ypg (.34)]. However, they allow 199 rushing yards per game, and RB T Whitehead should find some room to keep everyone honest.
Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Arizona 14
Actual Score:
Auburn (+6) @ LSU: Dead even, as far as I can tell. Both teams are very good defensively, with LSU's run defense being the most impressive [69 ypg (.86)]. However, Auburn's Brandon Cox is improving weekly, and may have made the leap when he lead Auburn to 28 second half points in a tight game at Arkansas last week. Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has been strong, allowing 116 (.26) and 151 (.21) on the ground and in the air. The travel is tough for those visiting LSU, so if the Tigers are tired, this could be a tough one to cover. I think they manage just fine.
Predicted Score: Auburn 21, LSU 20
Actual Score:
Arizona St (-10) @ Stanford: ASU has struggled as of late, and was whitewashed at home by Oregon. Meanwhile, Stanford has a two game winning streak, and looks like a team finding its groove. Which means, forget everything you know, and assume the slumping team will blow out the streakers. ASU has a fantastic offense that will run it up on the Cardinal while Stanford's inability to move the ball will help ASU make up for their otherwise very weak defense [463 ypg]. If Stanford plays perfectly, like in Wash St, then they will keep this game close. But after dominating Oregon St in Corvallis, I think the Sun Devils can pull the same trick this weekend in Palo Alto.
Predicted Score: Arizona State 42, Stanford 31
Actual Score:
Last Week: 11-18 (38%)
Year to Date: 78-62-3 (56.7%)
Last Week's A PICKS: 3-2 (60%)
Year to Date A PICKS: 12-6 (67%)
*****A PICKS******
Northern Illinois (-10.5) @ Kent St: Northern Illinois has a strong offense, but their strong passing def will be the difference here, limiting Kent State's excellent passing game. The UNI passing game [273 ypg (.10)] and the rushing game [228 ypg (.25)] will test the weak Kent St defense [230 rush ypg (-.22); 236 pass ypg] . Kent St throws for 288 (.14) ypg, however, UNI allows only 206 with a (.28) variance. This will be a tough game on the road, but the Huskies should have the offensive firepower to pull away late.
Predicted Score: No Illinois 45, Kent St 31
Actual Score:
Houston (+2) @ Mississippi State: My favorite game, as the stats point to a decisive Houston victory. Of course, taking road dogs is never fun, but I like what I see in this matchup. The MSU offense is very weak, but the Cougar offense looks potent enough to overtake a scrappy MSU defense. Houston averages 188 rypg (.25) and 285 pypg (.23), which should be enough to challenge the MSU rush def [124 ypg(.23)] and weak pass def [230 ypg (.05)]. Houston does give up 407 total ypg, but MSU only averages 273, and will be hard pressed to score enough to keep up.
Predicted Score: Houston 28, MSU 17
Actual Score:
Tulsa (-15.5) v SMU: I love this game too. Tulsa at home, against an up and down SMU team, should roll. Tulsa averages 393 tot ypg while SMU allows 416 ypg. Tulsa can run the ball (163) and throw (230) and should have no problem against a Mustang defense that can defend against neither (155, 261). The key stat is the SMU passing off [182 ypg (-.14)] against the very strong Tulsa pass def [139 ypg (.20)]. Tulsa should get up early, and have the passing defense to keep SMU from getting close.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, SMU 14
Actual Score:
Fresno St (-28.5) @ Idaho: Even on the road, it is likely that Fresno will roll once again. Idaho's stats are anemic, most notably a rushing off averaging 60 ypg (-1.40). On the other side, Fresno's defense is strong against both the pass and the run [(.33) and (.19)], while their run game [169 ypg (.15)] should exploit a weak Vandal run defense [172 ypg (-.22)].
Predicted Score: Fresno St 49, Idaho 14
Actual Score
Texas (-17) v. Texas Tech: This game opened at -15, and I still like it. The Longhorns are so strong in every facet, they can afford to divert attention to the Tech passing game, and abandon trying to stop what is actually a very weak run game [101 ypg (-.01)]. The variable indicates that the Raiders are only as strong as the defense they face, and in this case, its a run def allowing 92 ypg with a variance of (1.04), which shows that Texas is not only strong against the run, but they have been shutting down very good offenses. Meanwhile, Tex averages 264 yards on the ground (.47). The big issue is Tech's passing game [472 ypg (.52)] which is just a monster, but the Longhorns have a very solid pass def, enough to force Cody Hodges into too many mistakes [147 ypg (.20)]. And those pass def numbers are from games that have been blowouts, with opponents chucking it late. I like the Longhorns to keep blowing out big numbers, and end the talk of Tex Tech becoming a real player.
Predicted Score: Texas 48, Texas Tech 21
Actual Score:
****B PICKS****
Pittsburgh (-13) v. Syracuse: The Orange are terrible, and Pittsburgh has quietly gotten on a nice run, dominating Cincinnati then South Florida. At home, they should score at will against a struggling Cuse defense. The Orange will fail to move the ball in the air, though they may hamper the Pitt passing game slightly. The Cuse passing offense averages 147 ypg (-.32) vs. the Pitt pass defense giving up 164 ypg (.24)
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 35, Syracuse, 7
Actual Score:
Air Force (PK) v. TCU: If ever there was a pick em, this is it. TCU is tough, but on the road, they should have a difficult time keeping up with a Falcon offense that is on a roll. In addition, the Frogs will likely be without QB Tye Gunn, leaving them without a key offensive weapon. TCU has a strong run game [161 ypg (.13)] but Air Force has an equally tough run def [135 ypg (.15)]. Air Force meanwhile rushes for 252 ypg (.35), which should test a very good TCU rush def [119 ypg (.15)]. The weak Air Force passing game may limit them, but being at home should push them over the edge.
Predicted Score: Air Force 38, TCU 35
Actual Score:
Tennessee (+4) @ Alabama: This game is dead even, in every sense of the word. Tennessee is not spectacular, but they grind out win after win. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off of a poor 13-10 victory over Ole Miss, that showed they arent as explosive without top receiving threat Tyrone Prothro. Both rush defenses are excellent, with Alabama's performing much better statistically [163 ypg (.11) v. 98 ypg (-.07)], but both defenses have been extremely tough [TN 93 ypg (.53) v. Bama 93 ypg (.44)] . I imagine this game will finish well under the number, and come down to a field goal, meaning a +4 will come in handy at game's end.
Predicted Score: Alabama 16, Tennessee 13
Actual Score:
Miami (OH) (-10.5) @ Eastern Michigan: The running games should be the difference here. Mia averages 156 ypg (.08) against EMUs defense of 228 ypg (-.24), while the Mia rush def is giving up 141 yards, but faces a weak EMU run game averaging 101 ypg (-.62). EMU can throw the ball a little, and Mia can't stop it all that well, but against an anemic run game, they should be able to lay back in the soft zone. 10.5 does in fact seem like a little too many points, but the Hawks should just barely cover against an overachieving EMU squad.
Predicted Score: Miami 48, East Michigan 24
Actual Score:
Toledo (-30) v. Buffalo: Home game, and a strong running game to make up for the very strong Buffalo pass defense [156 ypg (.49)]. Toledo averages 221 on the ground (.17) and goes against Buffalo's run def giving up 201 per game (-.29). The key is that Buffalo can not move the ball offensively, averaging 97 and 139 yards per game rushing and passing respectively. The Rockets will run the ball right down the throats of the Bulls.
Predicted Score: Toledo 42, Buffalo 7
Actual Score:
Boise State (-18.5) @ Utah St: Utah State stinks, plain and simple. They average 97 yards on the ground (-.48) and 166 through the air (-.39), meaning that they will struggle mightily against a Boise St defense with var ratings of (.07) and (.10). The key is Boise's 220 rushing ypg (.30) against Utah St's 148 ypg rush def (-.15). The Broncos will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball, until Utah St is ground into the turf.
Predicted Score: Boise State 45, Utah State 14
Actual Score:
Navy (-7) @ Rice: I don't like picking Navy on the road, but Rice seems to get worse and worse each week. Navy struggles with everyone they play, playing many close games. On the road, this may be a 3 point game, but I think they can run the ball well enough to give the Owls fits. Navy averages 267 ypg on the ground (.34) while Rice allows 206 per game (-.20). The difference should be enough to allow Navy to hold the ball, and keep the Rice running game off the field [206 ypg (.17)]. The key is that Rice cannot throw the ball [86 ypg (-.96)] allowing Navy to play 8 in the box all day.
Predicted Score: Navy 35, Rice 14
Actual Score:
***C***
Michgan St (-12.5) v Northwestern: The key stat is MSU's passing off at 318 (.26) v NW's passing def at 319 (-.23). Drew Stanton, the highest rated passer in the nation, should throw at will on the Cats, forcing them to abandon their running game [215 ypg, (.30)] MSU's rush defense is also at 122 ypg, and should bottle up the Cats early on. The only problem is that NW can throw the ball [300+ ypg], and may score late to cover.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 45, Northwestern 30
Actual Score:
Michigan (+2.5) @ Iowa: This game is a real tough call. Iowa has great momentum, and has won 22 in a row at home. However, the stats point to a Michigan resurgence, especially following a hard fought win over a very good Penn St team. MI throws for 225 ypg, while Iowa gives up 238 per game in the air. Iowa has a strong run game [182 ypg (.12)] and an average passing game that should be better [226 ypg (-.12)], yet they go against a Michigan defense that is much better than the stats indicate, with variable ratings of (.32) and (.37) for the rush and pass defenses respectively. I expect the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball, with Chad Henne to have a resurgence.
Predicted Score: Michigan 23, Iowa 20
Actual Score:
Florida State (-30) @ Duke: I really want to take Duke here, but Im going to treat this game the way I treated the Miami game last week. Florida State is coming off of a very tough loss, and will look to make a statement. Poor Duke will just get caught in the way. Duke does have a great pass def [182 ypg (.17)] but FSU has a spectacular passing game [328 ypg (.38)] as well as an excellent run def [93 (.68)] which should keep Duke under 150 total yards. The Duke passing game is non existant [90 ypg (-1.01)]
Predicted Score: Florida State 49, Duke 14
Actual Score:
Nebraska (PK) @ Missouri: Mizzou has been tough lately, but Nebraska has quietly had an excellent season, lead by a spectacular defense. Missouri has great offensive numbers, with 235 passing ypg (.35) and 240 rushing ypg (.15), but they will be hard pressed to match those totals against the Nebraska defense, allowing 224 passing (.14) and 65 rushing (1.05). The key stat is Nebraska's 204 passing ypg against Missouri's passing defense [219 ypg (-.14)]
Predicted Score: Nebraska 27, Missouri 21
Actual Score:
Rutgers (-3.5) @ Uconn: I loved this game when I first saw it, but I have slowly learned to hate it. Statistically, UConn is extremely tough, but they showed how little that matters without an experienced quarterback, losing to a pathetic Cincinnati team. UConn has a very good running game [237 ypg (.36)], but the Rutgers run defense is equally tough [116 ypg (.23)]. And while UConn stops the pass very well [129 ypg (.35)], Rutgers has thrown the ball very well against good passing defenses [237 ypg (.22)]. Last week, UConn lost their back up, a freshman, and are now stuck auditioning third stringers. This should be enough to cost them an otherwise even matchup.
Predicted Score: Rutgers 20, UConn 10
Actual Score:
Oregon State (+9.5) @ UCLA: Don't get me wrong, I love the Bruins and their offense. However, their defense has been a major disappointment, almost costing them a game at Washington State, and threatening to make this week's game against Oregon State a tight one. The Beavers have struggled all season, but they have some surprising numbers. Of course, their passing game [321 ypg (.25)] is very good, and will test a Bruin passing def that looks good on paper, but isn't that spectacular in comparison to the passing games it has faced [187 ypg (.04)]. Couple that with QB Matt Moore coming back to LA after transferring. The key stat is OSUs excellent rush def [112 ypg (.81)] whose variable rating shows that they are even better than the numbers indicate, which should give the very good Bruin run game trouble. OSU's biggest weakness is against the pass, so it will be up to Drew Olson to pull the game out.
Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Oregon State 28
Actual Score:
Penn State (-18) @ Illinois: I didn't want to include this game after the number moved to 18, but I had to. The numbers indicate that the Nittany Lions are at least 28 points better than the Illini, and I have to think a three touchdown victory is doable. PSU averages 203 yards on the ground (.32), and goes against a rush def giving up 227 ypg (-.23). PSU should also be able to throw against a defense allowing 230 ypg. The key stat is that while Illinois averages 150 yards on the ground (.11), the Lions allow 101 per game, with a variable rating of (.96). If the Lions can prevent the Illini from making up those lost yards in the air, they should roll. I believe they have way too much speed for the rebuilding Illini.
Predicted Score: Penn State 38, Illinois 10
Actual Score:
Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona: The Cats gave USC a nice run, then lost at home to Stanford, hardly awe inspiring. Arizona has a terrible offense, even though the passing game has slowly been improving. The run game has a (-.57) variable rating, while Oregon's run def has a (.58). Once the Ducks shut down the running game, they can sit back and keep Zona from moving the ball through the air as well. Meanwhile, Oregon throws for 338 ypg, which should challenge a good zona passing def [192 ypg (.34)]. However, they allow 199 rushing yards per game, and RB T Whitehead should find some room to keep everyone honest.
Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Arizona 14
Actual Score:
Auburn (+6) @ LSU: Dead even, as far as I can tell. Both teams are very good defensively, with LSU's run defense being the most impressive [69 ypg (.86)]. However, Auburn's Brandon Cox is improving weekly, and may have made the leap when he lead Auburn to 28 second half points in a tight game at Arkansas last week. Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has been strong, allowing 116 (.26) and 151 (.21) on the ground and in the air. The travel is tough for those visiting LSU, so if the Tigers are tired, this could be a tough one to cover. I think they manage just fine.
Predicted Score: Auburn 21, LSU 20
Actual Score:
Arizona St (-10) @ Stanford: ASU has struggled as of late, and was whitewashed at home by Oregon. Meanwhile, Stanford has a two game winning streak, and looks like a team finding its groove. Which means, forget everything you know, and assume the slumping team will blow out the streakers. ASU has a fantastic offense that will run it up on the Cardinal while Stanford's inability to move the ball will help ASU make up for their otherwise very weak defense [463 ypg]. If Stanford plays perfectly, like in Wash St, then they will keep this game close. But after dominating Oregon St in Corvallis, I think the Sun Devils can pull the same trick this weekend in Palo Alto.
Predicted Score: Arizona State 42, Stanford 31
Actual Score:
posted by Consigliari at 9:09 PM
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