November 6, 2009 - Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder
Apologies to all regular readers (well, the both of you). Obviously I didnt get a post up last weekend. In my haste to get to a Halloween party, I rushed out of work before my usual posting. Suffice it to say, the gambling gods made me pay for it by delivering the greasiest cover of the season in the Iowa/Indiana game. For those who missed it, not only did the Hoosiers have a touchdown overturned in a game they were once leading 24-7, but with 1 minute remaining, and Iowa attempting to run out the clock on third down while leading by 11, the Hoosier defense collapsed and allowed a 50 yard touchdown. The final score, Iowa by 18 in a game I wagered heavily on with Indiana (+17.5). Apologies to my girlfriend for the unfriendly behavior I exhibited soon after the final whistle.
With that out of the way, let us move on to this week. Very few games excite me, so wager cautiously this week. Big numbers, and odd trends mean that you must be very selective this Saturday. As we head to the picks, let's recap Worm's performance from October 17th:
A Picks: 2 - 1 - 1
B Picks: 5 - 1
C Picks: 3 - 2
D Picks: 3 - 1
True to form, my B picks (picks I love but am just scared enough not to put max units on) were my best, along with my D picks (traditionally gut feelings). A picks were so so, while C picks were the runt of the litter, with those picks usually games that I have a gut feeling about, but that my mind says I shouldnt be touching. C ends up being the catch all traditionally, and I recommend C picks end up most often in teasers and ridiculously large $5 parlays.
*****A*****
Houston (-1.5) @ TULSA [4:30 pm PST]: Initially, I worried about a road game for the Cougars, and bettors did too. This game opened at HOU (-2.5), moved to TUL (+1.5), and is now back to the Cougs being a 1.5 fave. The reason is simple: Houston is the better team, but after a season of covers (let's all forget the UTEP game, shall we?), bettors are loathe to throw their eggs into this basket one more time. But trust the numbers here. Houston puts up nearly 200 more yards a game than Tulsa, and while the Hurricanes are riding a three game losing streak during which they have averaged fewer than 20 pts per game. Case Keenum is clicking on all cylindars, while the HOU running game has come to life. This game may be a shootout, but there is no question who will win it if it does.
Predicted Score: Houston 45, Tulsa 30
Actual Score:
Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ IOWA STATE [12:30 pm PST]: Start and end the discussion with two numbers: ISU makes its living on the ground, rushing for 200 ypg. However, OSU, despite being known for its offense, is holding it's opponents to just 99 yards a game on the ground. Factor in the return to health of RB Kendall Hunter, and the Cowboy offense and defense should share duties in dominating an Iowa State team that has scored a whopping 19 pts in its last two games,
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 33, Iowa State 14
Actual Score:
TENN/Memphis UNDER/ 52 [4:00 pm PST]: Tennessee should win this game going away, running all over a Tiger defense that gives up 197 ypg. However, the Vol defense has continually improved all year under defensive guru Monte Kiffin. Look for Tenn to stuff the undermanned Tiger offense and win this game going away, while holding Memphis under 10 and preserving the cover.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 35, Memphis 7
Actual Score:
****B****
MINNESOTA (-7) v. Illinois: Consider the Illini thrashing of Michigan last week an aberration. On the road, they are a different ball club, and they are facing a Gopher team that has changed its identity for the better. Missing top WR Eric Decker against Mich St, QB Adam Weber was forced to find secondary and third receivers on the way to racking up 416 yards through the air with 5 touchdowns. He should maintain this momentum, while the running game gets untracked against a pourous Illini front four. QB Juice Williams offers a running threat that has confounded the Gophers in the past, but with all three linebackers amongst the top 10 tacklers in the Big Ten, look for them to focus on containing the mobile threat on route to a two touchdown win.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Illinois 20
Actual Score:
MISSOURI (-14) v. Baylor [11:00 am PST]: Mostly a momentum play, Baylor has been struggling to put any points on the board since they lost their all league QB Robert Griffith. Look for the Mizzou defense to capitalize with 3 turnovers, and for QB Blaine Gabbert to turn them into points.
Predicted Score: Missouri 38, Baylor 17
Actual Score:
NOTRE DAME (-12.5) v Navy [11:30 am PST]: Once upon a time, Navy went into South Bend and ended a 43 game losing streak there. But this isn't the same ND offense they are facing this time around. All American candidate WR Michael Floyd returns for the Irish against a Navy defense whose numbers look better than what they put on the field. An option team, they control the pace of the game and keep their numbers looking respectable. But dont look for that to occur here, as the Irish will throw up top to Floyd and Golden Tate all day, while keeping the Navy running game in check as it attempts to reintroduce QB Ricky Dobbs from injury.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 42, Navy 24
Actual Score:
Oregon (-7) @ STANFORD [12:30 pm PST]: Needless to say, Im not in love with this pick, and could move it to an A or a D. This game opened at 5, my guess is, based on speculation that Oregon would suffer a let down after the big USC win. My head and heart say that Chip Kelly won't allow a let down, and that the powerful Duck run game will wear the Cardinal out in a game that will be tight for three quarters. In the end, the Oregon speed should prove too much for the fiesty and hard hitting Cardinal.
Predicted Score: Oregon 28, Stanford 17
Actual Score:
Kent St (-3.5) @ AKRON [12:30 pm PST]: Akron is (1-7) and they can't run the football. They also can't protect the quarterback, and sit at 101st in the nation in sacks allowed. Unfortunately for them, KSU excels at rushing the passer, and should capitalize. Expect 4-6 sacks and a very frustrated Golden Eagle offense by the end of the day. It wont be pretty, but 3.5 shouldnt be enough to deter anyone from picking this tight road cover.
Predicted Score: Kent State 24, Akron 10
Actual Score:
***C***
Duke (+10) @ NORTH CAROLINA [12:30 pm]: Fla St demonstrated how to pick apart the UNC secondary, and red hot Thaddeus Lewis will be primed to do just that in this derby.
Usc (-10) @ ARIZONA STATE [5:00 pm PST]
MICHIGAN (-7) v Purdue [9:00 am PST]: They really should be able to get back on track with a team loaded with athletes against a rebuilding Boilermaker team on the road. Purdue got their big win of the year, and Michigan had their stinker. Back to normal.
Nevada (-13.5) @ SAN JOSE STATE [Nov 8th]: SJSU gives up 240 ypg on the ground, and Nevada runs for 314 ypg. This might get ugly....
**D**
PITT (-21) v Syracuse
TCU (-24.5) @ SAN DIEGO ST
With that out of the way, let us move on to this week. Very few games excite me, so wager cautiously this week. Big numbers, and odd trends mean that you must be very selective this Saturday. As we head to the picks, let's recap Worm's performance from October 17th:
A Picks: 2 - 1 - 1
B Picks: 5 - 1
C Picks: 3 - 2
D Picks: 3 - 1
True to form, my B picks (picks I love but am just scared enough not to put max units on) were my best, along with my D picks (traditionally gut feelings). A picks were so so, while C picks were the runt of the litter, with those picks usually games that I have a gut feeling about, but that my mind says I shouldnt be touching. C ends up being the catch all traditionally, and I recommend C picks end up most often in teasers and ridiculously large $5 parlays.
*****A*****
Houston (-1.5) @ TULSA [4:30 pm PST]: Initially, I worried about a road game for the Cougars, and bettors did too. This game opened at HOU (-2.5), moved to TUL (+1.5), and is now back to the Cougs being a 1.5 fave. The reason is simple: Houston is the better team, but after a season of covers (let's all forget the UTEP game, shall we?), bettors are loathe to throw their eggs into this basket one more time. But trust the numbers here. Houston puts up nearly 200 more yards a game than Tulsa, and while the Hurricanes are riding a three game losing streak during which they have averaged fewer than 20 pts per game. Case Keenum is clicking on all cylindars, while the HOU running game has come to life. This game may be a shootout, but there is no question who will win it if it does.
Predicted Score: Houston 45, Tulsa 30
Actual Score:
Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ IOWA STATE [12:30 pm PST]: Start and end the discussion with two numbers: ISU makes its living on the ground, rushing for 200 ypg. However, OSU, despite being known for its offense, is holding it's opponents to just 99 yards a game on the ground. Factor in the return to health of RB Kendall Hunter, and the Cowboy offense and defense should share duties in dominating an Iowa State team that has scored a whopping 19 pts in its last two games,
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 33, Iowa State 14
Actual Score:
TENN/Memphis UNDER/ 52 [4:00 pm PST]: Tennessee should win this game going away, running all over a Tiger defense that gives up 197 ypg. However, the Vol defense has continually improved all year under defensive guru Monte Kiffin. Look for Tenn to stuff the undermanned Tiger offense and win this game going away, while holding Memphis under 10 and preserving the cover.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 35, Memphis 7
Actual Score:
****B****
MINNESOTA (-7) v. Illinois: Consider the Illini thrashing of Michigan last week an aberration. On the road, they are a different ball club, and they are facing a Gopher team that has changed its identity for the better. Missing top WR Eric Decker against Mich St, QB Adam Weber was forced to find secondary and third receivers on the way to racking up 416 yards through the air with 5 touchdowns. He should maintain this momentum, while the running game gets untracked against a pourous Illini front four. QB Juice Williams offers a running threat that has confounded the Gophers in the past, but with all three linebackers amongst the top 10 tacklers in the Big Ten, look for them to focus on containing the mobile threat on route to a two touchdown win.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Illinois 20
Actual Score:
MISSOURI (-14) v. Baylor [11:00 am PST]: Mostly a momentum play, Baylor has been struggling to put any points on the board since they lost their all league QB Robert Griffith. Look for the Mizzou defense to capitalize with 3 turnovers, and for QB Blaine Gabbert to turn them into points.
Predicted Score: Missouri 38, Baylor 17
Actual Score:
NOTRE DAME (-12.5) v Navy [11:30 am PST]: Once upon a time, Navy went into South Bend and ended a 43 game losing streak there. But this isn't the same ND offense they are facing this time around. All American candidate WR Michael Floyd returns for the Irish against a Navy defense whose numbers look better than what they put on the field. An option team, they control the pace of the game and keep their numbers looking respectable. But dont look for that to occur here, as the Irish will throw up top to Floyd and Golden Tate all day, while keeping the Navy running game in check as it attempts to reintroduce QB Ricky Dobbs from injury.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 42, Navy 24
Actual Score:
Oregon (-7) @ STANFORD [12:30 pm PST]: Needless to say, Im not in love with this pick, and could move it to an A or a D. This game opened at 5, my guess is, based on speculation that Oregon would suffer a let down after the big USC win. My head and heart say that Chip Kelly won't allow a let down, and that the powerful Duck run game will wear the Cardinal out in a game that will be tight for three quarters. In the end, the Oregon speed should prove too much for the fiesty and hard hitting Cardinal.
Predicted Score: Oregon 28, Stanford 17
Actual Score:
Kent St (-3.5) @ AKRON [12:30 pm PST]: Akron is (1-7) and they can't run the football. They also can't protect the quarterback, and sit at 101st in the nation in sacks allowed. Unfortunately for them, KSU excels at rushing the passer, and should capitalize. Expect 4-6 sacks and a very frustrated Golden Eagle offense by the end of the day. It wont be pretty, but 3.5 shouldnt be enough to deter anyone from picking this tight road cover.
Predicted Score: Kent State 24, Akron 10
Actual Score:
***C***
Duke (+10) @ NORTH CAROLINA [12:30 pm]: Fla St demonstrated how to pick apart the UNC secondary, and red hot Thaddeus Lewis will be primed to do just that in this derby.
Usc (-10) @ ARIZONA STATE [5:00 pm PST]
MICHIGAN (-7) v Purdue [9:00 am PST]: They really should be able to get back on track with a team loaded with athletes against a rebuilding Boilermaker team on the road. Purdue got their big win of the year, and Michigan had their stinker. Back to normal.
Nevada (-13.5) @ SAN JOSE STATE [Nov 8th]: SJSU gives up 240 ypg on the ground, and Nevada runs for 314 ypg. This might get ugly....
**D**
PITT (-21) v Syracuse
TCU (-24.5) @ SAN DIEGO ST
posted by Consigliari at 6:05 PM
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