November 5, 2005
Last week, I was in a terrible rush. But I managed to get most picks out there. The problem was that I changed a few at the last minute. However, the changes were to low level picks, that I could see going either way on. My biggest mistake was that I put two games in the A level that I had slight doubts about . The truth is that one B pick (Cincy) and one C pick (Mich) were A picks on paper, but I didnt have the nerve to put them in the A column. That was my mistake. That being said, Tulane blew game they were leading by 14 in the last few minutes, and TCU was covering with 3 minutes left until they let SDSU drive on them for no apparent reason. I was dumbfounded to say the least. Let's hope this week is stronger. This week I have done a full analysis which determines the total expected yardage and expected score based on yearly performance. Games that appear to go in one direction may actually go in another when fully analyzing their statistics. The key numbers are mentioned in the write ups:
10/22 Record: 13-9 (.591)
10/29 Record: 9-10-1 (.500)
Record to Date: 100-81-4 (.562)
10/22 A picks: 4-1 (.800)
10-29 A picks: 4-2 (.667)
A picks to Date: 20-9 (.690)
*****A PICKS*****
Boston College (-5) @ North Carolina - 9:00 am: This game should not be very close, despite BC's having to play on the road. UNC offers a less than hospitable environment, however, they will stil find it tough to run against a dominant BC run defense that was exploited by Virginia Tech only because of their inability to contain Marcus Vick, a problem they won't face this week. UNC has trouble scoring for the most part, and will continue to struggle this week, amassing a mere 264 yards of total offense. The key will be BC's ability to throw the ball against a poor secondary.
Predicted Score: Boston College 26, North Carolina 18
Actual Score: UNC 16, BC 14 [L]
Western Michigan (-3) @ Eastern Michigan - 12 noon: This will be a close game, and the number is pretty much right on. WM struggles on defense, and will likely allow EM to stepup their passing game significantly. However, WM will see a significant increase in their run game, and will pull out a victory by about a touchdown.
Predicted Score: West Mich 31, East Mich 24
Actual Score: West Mich 44, East Mich 36 [W]
Penn State (-11) v. Wisconsin - 1230 pm: I think this is my favorite game. All numbers and feelings point to Penn State continuing to perform at an above average rate. Wisconsin's defense is highly overrated, while their running game, while effective, has been as good as it should be, and no better. Against PSU, they will find the running lanes few and far between. Some say the loss of Derrick Williams will be a major blow, but not when you consider that he has only run for 105 yards, and caught 289 yards worth of passes - losses of 15 and 19 ypg respectively.
Predicted Score: Penn State 37, Wisconsin 21
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Wisconsin 14 [W]
UCLA (-9.5) @ Arizona - 3:00 pm: UCLA had their close game, and won. This should lead to a charge through Arizona as they prepare to meet USC. UCLA's biggest weakness is against the run, but Arizona has struggled all year to do anything by throw the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA has been very effective against the pass. Even on the road, I like the Bruins to score in the 40's en route to a convincing victory.
Predicted Score: UCLA 42, Arizona 21
Actual Score: Arizona 52, UCLA 14 [L]
****B PICKS****
South Florida (+3) @ Rutgers - 9:00 am: This game is essentially dead even. The numbers all match up, leaving the (-3) explained only by home field advantage. Rutgers is a touchdown short this game, due to a 40 yard loss in rushing, while USF will find slightly more passing room as their backs run up 220 yards on the ground.
Predicted Score: Rutgers 25, South Florida 23
Actual Score: South Florida 45, Rutgers 31 [W]
Michigan State (-5) @ Purdue - 9:00 am: Statistically, this should be a blow out. Look for the Spartans to roll up almost 600 yards of total offense, while keeping Purdue in check for the most part. QB Stanton should flourish against a poor Boilermaker secondary, while an underrated ground game controls the clock.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 43, Purdue 32
Actual Score: Purdue 28, Mich St 21 [L]
Arkansas (-4) v. South Carolina - 9:30 am: Considering SC just beat Tenn, this pick must come as a shock. Then again, Ark is favored..and rightfully so. While SC will be able to throw the ball, they may seldom have it as Ark runs for over 310 yards against a weak SC run defense. Arkansas is hardly a scoring machine, but neither is So Car. I see them controlling the clock, and taking advantage of their home field.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 24, South Carolina 17
Actual Score: South Carolina 14, Arkansas 10 [L]
Nebraska (-1.5) @ Kansas - 12 noon: This is very close to an A pick. Neb's defense looks poised to dominate the very weak Kan offense, holding them to 260 yards or less. However, Kansas has a fantastic defense too, and should keep Nebraska under 300 yards themselves. The difference will be the Neb passing game of all things, which should chew up some yards against Kansas' one weakness, which is it's secondary. If Neb can throw for more than 230 yards ,they should win by a touchdown.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 21, Kansas 14
Actual Score: Kansas 40, Nebraska 16 [L]
Army (+11) @ Air Force: This pick should come as a shock. Army is not a very good team, but AF has been so inconsistent, it hardly seems right to expect AF to beat anyone by 11. Army has a decent defense, and should keep AF under their normal 250 yards rushing each game. Meanwhile, I expect Army to find room in the air of all places. Both teams should put up about 350 total yards, which is 50 more than average for Army, and 50 less for AF. The Falcons should still win, but it will be a tight game.
Predicted Score: Air Force 28, Army 21
Actual Score: Army 27, Air Force 24 [W]
Central Florida (+2.5) v. Houston - 3:00 pm: Originally, I leaned Houston, mostly because I always do. However, UCF has an underrted offense, and plays immensly better at home. Houston has a great offense, but an average defense. I look for both teams to perform above average offensively, and will also play the over here. Look for a close game, won outright by the home dogs.
Predicted Score: Central Florida 34, Houston 28
Actual Score: CFla 31, Houston 29 [W]
Washington State (+2.5) v Arizona State - 2:00 pm: ASU seems to struggle on the road, while Wazzu and their high powered offense play especially well at home. Both teams should put up 540 yards of offense, but the key will be Wazzu's 260 yards on the ground against ASU's weak run defense. ASU shoud have no problem throwing the ball, but nothing more effective than what they usually put up. Definately play the over here.
Predicted Score: Washington State 45, Arizona State 42
Actual Score: Arizona State 27, Washington State 24 [L]
***C PICKS***
Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern - 9:00 am: NW is a trendy pick, but the numbers say otherwise. The weak NW defense is doomed to give up an extra 70 yards to a potent Iowa offense that has been rolling along (save for last week's loss to a good Michigan defense). Meanwhile, Iowa should manage to keep NW under 500 yards on offense, while taking advantage of superior special teams.
Predicted Score: Iowa 35, Northwestern 32
Actual Score: NW 28, Iowa 27 [L]
Georgia Tech (-8) v. Wake Forest - 12:30 pm: Wake has been solid all season, relying on a very potent running game. However, they go against a staunch G Tech defense which should hold the Deacons in check, while the GT offense takes advantage of a somewhat poor WF pass defense. Look for Reggie Ball to have an excellent day while the Tech defense holds Wake in check without their top QB.
Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 28, Wake Forest 14
Actual Score: GTech 30, Wake Forest 17 [W]
Bowling Green (-11.5) @ Kent St - 11:00 am: I keep telling myself I won't play Bowling Green games, but here I am again. They are so due to break out, I would hate to miss the train when it left the station. All stats point to a 15 pt victory this weekend for old BG. Not only will they see an increase in their offensive performance, but their underrated defense should keep Kent under 300 yards (totally nullifying an already terrible rushing attack). [**NOTE: QB Omar Jacobs did not play for BG, unbeknownst to me at time of writing.]
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 42, Kent State 24
Actual Score: Bowling Green 24, Kent 14 [L]
Tennessee (+9) @ Notre Dame - 11:35 am: This is a headscratched, especially considering how bad Tenn played last week. However, that game should be chalked up to the dominance of Phil Fullmer by Steve Spurrier, and not to Tenn's weaknesses. They are exceptional on defense, and they have a very underrated passing game that should exploit the weak ND pass defense. ND will win, but 9 is too many points. [**NOTE: If I had known Qb Erik Ainge was playing, I never would have taken TN]
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 28, Tennessee 21
Actual Score: Notre Dame 41, Tennessee 21 [L]
Iowa State (-8) v. Kansas State - 11:00 am: 8 is a tough number to give here, but I find K St to be much more effective at home, rather than on the road. ISU's offense is starting to hum along after dropping 42 on Tex A&M. Meanwhile, K St has shown a deficiency in its run game of late, and ISU should exploit that. Neither team should find much success on the ground, but QB Brett Meyer should be the diffence as ISU is learning to use their offensive weapons properly.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 37, Kansas State 24
Actual Score: Iowa State 45, Kansas St 17 [W]
Miami (FL) (+6.5) @ Virginia Tech - 350pm: Blacksburg is not a fun place to play, but this Miami defense isnt afraid of anything. This will be a low scoring game, and everything will depend on the play of Kyle Wright, who is turnover prone, and was awufl in a victory over UNC last week. Marcus Vick has been very efficient, but goes against a pass defense allowing only 123 yards a game.
Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 19, Miami FL 14
Actual Score: Miami 27, V Tech 7 [W]
TCU (-7) v. Colorado State - 4:00 pm: I admit that 7 is alot, and I am hesitant to give it, but CSU struggles against the run, and should give the Horned Frogs plenty of running room. TCU should have covered on the road last week, and despite CSU's 310 yards passing they are destined to get, it will be TCU's 230 yards on the ground that bring them victory. Even with an effective passing game, CSU will still fall short of their usual offensive output.
Predicted Score: TCU 35, Colorado St 24
Actual Score: TCU 33, Col St 6 [W]
**D PICKS**
Navy (-12.5) v. Tulane- 12:30 pm: I was really leaning Tulane in this game, until I remembered...they're Tulane! 12.5 is a big number, but it amounts to a two touchdown victory, which isnt out of the question for a Navy team averaging 263 yards on the ground. Tulane is strong against the pass, but Navy should carve them up for 300 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Tulane has no rushing attack, and Navy's strength is against Tulane's only weapon - the passing game. Lester Ricard has been shuffled in and out of the lineup, demonstrating how inconsistent he is. I see him struggling against an solid Navy pass defense, while the Midshipmen run and run and run their way to an easy win.
Predicted Score: Navy 35, Tulane 21
Actual Score: Navy 49, Tulane 21 [W]
Wyoming (+2.5) @ Utah - 12 noon: Originally, I figured Utah was hte pick here. However, Wyo is destined for an extra 30 yards of offense, while holding Utah to 50 less total yards. Wyo's passing game is a strength, and one that they can use to exploit Utah. On the road, they may struggle some, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright. Even if they don't, this will be a very close game.
Predicted Score: Utah 28, Wyoming 27
Actual Score: Utah 43, Wyoming 13 [L]
Ohio State (-34) v. Illinois - 1235 pm: Ohio State just looks so dominant in this game. Even if the backups come in, this is Ohio State, and the backups would be starters on Illinois. While OSU will put up 460 yards of offense (+75) they should hold Illinois to 100 yards under their average. This is a blow out, and should be over by half time.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 52, Illinois 10
Actual Score: Ohio State 40, Illinois 2 [W]
10/22 Record: 13-9 (.591)
10/29 Record: 9-10-1 (.500)
Record to Date: 100-81-4 (.562)
10/22 A picks: 4-1 (.800)
10-29 A picks: 4-2 (.667)
A picks to Date: 20-9 (.690)
*****A PICKS*****
Boston College (-5) @ North Carolina - 9:00 am: This game should not be very close, despite BC's having to play on the road. UNC offers a less than hospitable environment, however, they will stil find it tough to run against a dominant BC run defense that was exploited by Virginia Tech only because of their inability to contain Marcus Vick, a problem they won't face this week. UNC has trouble scoring for the most part, and will continue to struggle this week, amassing a mere 264 yards of total offense. The key will be BC's ability to throw the ball against a poor secondary.
Predicted Score: Boston College 26, North Carolina 18
Actual Score: UNC 16, BC 14 [L]
Western Michigan (-3) @ Eastern Michigan - 12 noon: This will be a close game, and the number is pretty much right on. WM struggles on defense, and will likely allow EM to stepup their passing game significantly. However, WM will see a significant increase in their run game, and will pull out a victory by about a touchdown.
Predicted Score: West Mich 31, East Mich 24
Actual Score: West Mich 44, East Mich 36 [W]
Penn State (-11) v. Wisconsin - 1230 pm: I think this is my favorite game. All numbers and feelings point to Penn State continuing to perform at an above average rate. Wisconsin's defense is highly overrated, while their running game, while effective, has been as good as it should be, and no better. Against PSU, they will find the running lanes few and far between. Some say the loss of Derrick Williams will be a major blow, but not when you consider that he has only run for 105 yards, and caught 289 yards worth of passes - losses of 15 and 19 ypg respectively.
Predicted Score: Penn State 37, Wisconsin 21
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Wisconsin 14 [W]
UCLA (-9.5) @ Arizona - 3:00 pm: UCLA had their close game, and won. This should lead to a charge through Arizona as they prepare to meet USC. UCLA's biggest weakness is against the run, but Arizona has struggled all year to do anything by throw the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA has been very effective against the pass. Even on the road, I like the Bruins to score in the 40's en route to a convincing victory.
Predicted Score: UCLA 42, Arizona 21
Actual Score: Arizona 52, UCLA 14 [L]
****B PICKS****
South Florida (+3) @ Rutgers - 9:00 am: This game is essentially dead even. The numbers all match up, leaving the (-3) explained only by home field advantage. Rutgers is a touchdown short this game, due to a 40 yard loss in rushing, while USF will find slightly more passing room as their backs run up 220 yards on the ground.
Predicted Score: Rutgers 25, South Florida 23
Actual Score: South Florida 45, Rutgers 31 [W]
Michigan State (-5) @ Purdue - 9:00 am: Statistically, this should be a blow out. Look for the Spartans to roll up almost 600 yards of total offense, while keeping Purdue in check for the most part. QB Stanton should flourish against a poor Boilermaker secondary, while an underrated ground game controls the clock.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 43, Purdue 32
Actual Score: Purdue 28, Mich St 21 [L]
Arkansas (-4) v. South Carolina - 9:30 am: Considering SC just beat Tenn, this pick must come as a shock. Then again, Ark is favored..and rightfully so. While SC will be able to throw the ball, they may seldom have it as Ark runs for over 310 yards against a weak SC run defense. Arkansas is hardly a scoring machine, but neither is So Car. I see them controlling the clock, and taking advantage of their home field.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 24, South Carolina 17
Actual Score: South Carolina 14, Arkansas 10 [L]
Nebraska (-1.5) @ Kansas - 12 noon: This is very close to an A pick. Neb's defense looks poised to dominate the very weak Kan offense, holding them to 260 yards or less. However, Kansas has a fantastic defense too, and should keep Nebraska under 300 yards themselves. The difference will be the Neb passing game of all things, which should chew up some yards against Kansas' one weakness, which is it's secondary. If Neb can throw for more than 230 yards ,they should win by a touchdown.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 21, Kansas 14
Actual Score: Kansas 40, Nebraska 16 [L]
Army (+11) @ Air Force: This pick should come as a shock. Army is not a very good team, but AF has been so inconsistent, it hardly seems right to expect AF to beat anyone by 11. Army has a decent defense, and should keep AF under their normal 250 yards rushing each game. Meanwhile, I expect Army to find room in the air of all places. Both teams should put up about 350 total yards, which is 50 more than average for Army, and 50 less for AF. The Falcons should still win, but it will be a tight game.
Predicted Score: Air Force 28, Army 21
Actual Score: Army 27, Air Force 24 [W]
Central Florida (+2.5) v. Houston - 3:00 pm: Originally, I leaned Houston, mostly because I always do. However, UCF has an underrted offense, and plays immensly better at home. Houston has a great offense, but an average defense. I look for both teams to perform above average offensively, and will also play the over here. Look for a close game, won outright by the home dogs.
Predicted Score: Central Florida 34, Houston 28
Actual Score: CFla 31, Houston 29 [W]
Washington State (+2.5) v Arizona State - 2:00 pm: ASU seems to struggle on the road, while Wazzu and their high powered offense play especially well at home. Both teams should put up 540 yards of offense, but the key will be Wazzu's 260 yards on the ground against ASU's weak run defense. ASU shoud have no problem throwing the ball, but nothing more effective than what they usually put up. Definately play the over here.
Predicted Score: Washington State 45, Arizona State 42
Actual Score: Arizona State 27, Washington State 24 [L]
***C PICKS***
Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern - 9:00 am: NW is a trendy pick, but the numbers say otherwise. The weak NW defense is doomed to give up an extra 70 yards to a potent Iowa offense that has been rolling along (save for last week's loss to a good Michigan defense). Meanwhile, Iowa should manage to keep NW under 500 yards on offense, while taking advantage of superior special teams.
Predicted Score: Iowa 35, Northwestern 32
Actual Score: NW 28, Iowa 27 [L]
Georgia Tech (-8) v. Wake Forest - 12:30 pm: Wake has been solid all season, relying on a very potent running game. However, they go against a staunch G Tech defense which should hold the Deacons in check, while the GT offense takes advantage of a somewhat poor WF pass defense. Look for Reggie Ball to have an excellent day while the Tech defense holds Wake in check without their top QB.
Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 28, Wake Forest 14
Actual Score: GTech 30, Wake Forest 17 [W]
Bowling Green (-11.5) @ Kent St - 11:00 am: I keep telling myself I won't play Bowling Green games, but here I am again. They are so due to break out, I would hate to miss the train when it left the station. All stats point to a 15 pt victory this weekend for old BG. Not only will they see an increase in their offensive performance, but their underrated defense should keep Kent under 300 yards (totally nullifying an already terrible rushing attack). [**NOTE: QB Omar Jacobs did not play for BG, unbeknownst to me at time of writing.]
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 42, Kent State 24
Actual Score: Bowling Green 24, Kent 14 [L]
Tennessee (+9) @ Notre Dame - 11:35 am: This is a headscratched, especially considering how bad Tenn played last week. However, that game should be chalked up to the dominance of Phil Fullmer by Steve Spurrier, and not to Tenn's weaknesses. They are exceptional on defense, and they have a very underrated passing game that should exploit the weak ND pass defense. ND will win, but 9 is too many points. [**NOTE: If I had known Qb Erik Ainge was playing, I never would have taken TN]
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 28, Tennessee 21
Actual Score: Notre Dame 41, Tennessee 21 [L]
Iowa State (-8) v. Kansas State - 11:00 am: 8 is a tough number to give here, but I find K St to be much more effective at home, rather than on the road. ISU's offense is starting to hum along after dropping 42 on Tex A&M. Meanwhile, K St has shown a deficiency in its run game of late, and ISU should exploit that. Neither team should find much success on the ground, but QB Brett Meyer should be the diffence as ISU is learning to use their offensive weapons properly.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 37, Kansas State 24
Actual Score: Iowa State 45, Kansas St 17 [W]
Miami (FL) (+6.5) @ Virginia Tech - 350pm: Blacksburg is not a fun place to play, but this Miami defense isnt afraid of anything. This will be a low scoring game, and everything will depend on the play of Kyle Wright, who is turnover prone, and was awufl in a victory over UNC last week. Marcus Vick has been very efficient, but goes against a pass defense allowing only 123 yards a game.
Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 19, Miami FL 14
Actual Score: Miami 27, V Tech 7 [W]
TCU (-7) v. Colorado State - 4:00 pm: I admit that 7 is alot, and I am hesitant to give it, but CSU struggles against the run, and should give the Horned Frogs plenty of running room. TCU should have covered on the road last week, and despite CSU's 310 yards passing they are destined to get, it will be TCU's 230 yards on the ground that bring them victory. Even with an effective passing game, CSU will still fall short of their usual offensive output.
Predicted Score: TCU 35, Colorado St 24
Actual Score: TCU 33, Col St 6 [W]
**D PICKS**
Navy (-12.5) v. Tulane- 12:30 pm: I was really leaning Tulane in this game, until I remembered...they're Tulane! 12.5 is a big number, but it amounts to a two touchdown victory, which isnt out of the question for a Navy team averaging 263 yards on the ground. Tulane is strong against the pass, but Navy should carve them up for 300 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Tulane has no rushing attack, and Navy's strength is against Tulane's only weapon - the passing game. Lester Ricard has been shuffled in and out of the lineup, demonstrating how inconsistent he is. I see him struggling against an solid Navy pass defense, while the Midshipmen run and run and run their way to an easy win.
Predicted Score: Navy 35, Tulane 21
Actual Score: Navy 49, Tulane 21 [W]
Wyoming (+2.5) @ Utah - 12 noon: Originally, I figured Utah was hte pick here. However, Wyo is destined for an extra 30 yards of offense, while holding Utah to 50 less total yards. Wyo's passing game is a strength, and one that they can use to exploit Utah. On the road, they may struggle some, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright. Even if they don't, this will be a very close game.
Predicted Score: Utah 28, Wyoming 27
Actual Score: Utah 43, Wyoming 13 [L]
Ohio State (-34) v. Illinois - 1235 pm: Ohio State just looks so dominant in this game. Even if the backups come in, this is Ohio State, and the backups would be starters on Illinois. While OSU will put up 460 yards of offense (+75) they should hold Illinois to 100 yards under their average. This is a blow out, and should be over by half time.
Predicted Score: Ohio St 52, Illinois 10
Actual Score: Ohio State 40, Illinois 2 [W]
posted by Consigliari at 12:07 PM
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