October 29, 2005

*****A*****
Kansas St (+7.5) v Colorado: KSU getting 7.5 at home seems like a gift, after they gave A&M all they could handle last week. KSY has a strong run and pass defense, against comparable offensive stats by Col. However, Col, while adept against the run (85, +85%) is inedpt against the pass (253, -10%). KSU's young QB is getting better each week, and should be able to exploit the Buffs. Perhaps the Cats won't win this game, but they have a strong enough defense, and a balanced offense, sufficient to keep this game under 7.

Predicted Score: Colorado 28, Kansas St 24
Actual Score:

Rutgers (-6.5) v. Navy

BYU (-6.5) v Air Force: A favorite of mine. AF has demonstrated what a disaster they are against a potent offense. Through the air, AF gives up 265 ypg (-13%) while BYU is throwing for 317 ypg, which looks even better with a +25% var rtg. And though some point to the explosive AF running game (251, +36%), BYU's strength is stopping the run (130 +23%). I look for BYU to dare AF to throw the ball, and for them to fail miserably, while QB John Beck picks apart the AF secondary.

Predicted Score: BYU 42, Air Force 28
Actual Score:

TCU (-7) @ San Diego St:

Texas Tech (-11.5) @ Baylor:

Tulane (-1) v. Marshall:

****B****

New Mexico (-6) v. Colorado St: CSU has a dynamic offense, and should put up a decent amount of points. However, NM recently shut down Wyoming on the road, and CSU is 0-3 on the road, meaning they won't be nearly as explosive as in past games. The key to this game is RB Dontrell Moore for NM, who will help the Lobos control the clock. NM averages 211 ypg on the ground (28%) while CSU allows 198 (-9%). The passing yardage should even out, while NM wins the battle on the ground, and wins this by a TD.

Predicted Score: 35-28
Actual Score:

Cincinatti (+5) @ Syracuse: I have really struggled with this game, but all signs point to Cincy pulling a slight upset. Cuse has been horrible this season, road or home. And though CIN is not a strong team, the numbers indicate they have the offense to be competitive. They average 151 ypg rushing, while Cuse allows 169 (-9%). Meanwhile, Cuse can't run (116, -19%) or pass (138, -33%), meaning the average Bearcat defense will not be tested. Look for Cincy to grind out a close victory, or at least cover.

Predicted Score: Cincinatti 21, Syracuse 17
Actual Score:

Nebraska (-1.5) v Oklahoma: All of the "experts" are going with OK, but not me. The numbers indicate that this game will be a tight one, maybe even an overtime affair. Both teams dominate in stopping the run, though OK has a much better rush offense (155, +12%) However, Nebraska brings a strong run d (107, +39%), which will be able to focus on the Sooner run game due to OK's anemic pass offense (160, -26%). Meanwhile, the difference maker will be Nebraska's ability to throw the ball (215, +2%) against a Sooner defense allowing 223 ypg in the air. I like the Huskers to win a squeaker.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 23, Oklahoma 20
Actual Score:

Alabama (-34) v Utah St: Like any game with a blow out line, the key will be how much damage the starters can do before the reserves come in. However, I beleive at a school like Bama, the reserves will be very talented and hungry to prove themselves. In an undefeated season, the reserves see little action. This means that when they get a shot, they will play like starters against a team like Utah St. Bama can throw and run (225 +9%, 150 +12%) while Utah St can not do either (173 -39%, 95 -44%). Utah St can stop the run a little, but they are horrible against the pass. Brodie Croyle should have 4-5 TDs passing when he leaves in the third, en route to a high scoring affair.

Predicted Score: Alabama 52, Utah St 7
Actual Score:

Iowa State (+10) @ Texas A&M: 10 seems like an awful lot for two teams that match up well on paper. A&M is great offensively (P 236 +6%, R 238 +42%) but ISU has some things going in its favor. They play the run very well (108, +41%) while A&M struggles to stop the pass (298, -29%). I think the underrated Cyclone passing game (221 +5%) will exploit the A&M secondary enough to keep them in this game to the very end, though I imagine it will be the running of QB Reggie McNeal that confounds ISU most of the day. 10 is still too many points.

Predicted Score: Texas A&M 31, Iowa St 28
Actual Score:

Bowling Green (-14.5) v Akron:

Troy (+3) @ UL Lafayette:

***C***

Ohio (-4) @ Buffalo: This game worries me. Early in the week, I was all over Ohio, but the power rating on this game is only (-2), while many are predicting a tight game. If anything, play the under here. It's sure to be around 35 total points. As for the game, the key stat is Ohio's running game (185 +1%) against the anemic Buffalo run defense (214, -28%). Ohio can't stop the pass at all, but lucky for them Buffalo can't throw the ball (153, -34%). Then again, they can't run it either (100, -51%). If Ohio can run the ball, and control the clock, they should win by a touchdown. However, if their awful passing game is shut down by the strong Buffalo pass defense (123 -77% v 150 +43%) then Buffalo can go 9 in the box and stuff Ohio. I think the Bearcats will be battle tested after beating Pitt and pull this out.

Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Buffalo 10
Actual Score:

Central Florida (+2.5) @ East Carolina: Another game I went back and forth on. East Carolina can certainly throw the ball, but so can CFL. Neither team defends the pass too well, meaning the game will turn on the CF running game (139 -10%) getting well against an atrocious ECU rush defense (225 -20%). ECY meanwhile cannot run the ball (106 -43%) while CFL plays fantastic run defense (132 +21%). I look for CFL to be able to sit back in a zone and control the game knowing ECU cant move the ball on the ground, then win with a balanced attack.

Predicted Score: Central Fla 35, East Carolina 27
Actual Score:

Florida State (-17) v. Maryland: Normally I don't play MD games, but this week, their QB S Hollenbech is likely to sit. If he does, look for FSU to dominate the otherwise weak Terripins. While FSU's passing game will be tested by a strong MD pass d (155, -14%), I look for FSU to finally get a running game going against a run d allowing 186 ypg. MD's biggest strength anywhere is throwing the ball, but FSU is tough against the pass, and will dominate even more with Hollenbech out. FSU in a romp.

Predicted Score: Florida St 37, Maryland 14
Actual Score:

UTEP (-20) @ Rice: I don't really want to play this game, but Rice is so horrible, I have to. Rice can run the ball, mind you (203 +15%) however, UTEP's strength is against the run (138 +15%). Meanwhile, Rice can not do anything through the air (-107%), while UTEP's 280 ypg passing (+19%) will do well against a Rice defense allowing 241 ypg on their own. RB Tyler Ebell should also get well against a Rice defense allowing 222 ypg on the ground. For a team like Rice, being at home has no advantage.

Predicted Score: UTEP 48, Rice 21
Actual Score:

Northern Illinois (-28) v Ball State:

Kansas (+5.5) v Missouri:

Mississippi St (pk) @ Kentucky:

**D**

Wake Forest (-14) @ Duke: I have been vacillating on this game all week. I like Duke, but I just think they may be a horse short. They have a great pass defense, and Wake loses their starting QB, who has turned the season around. However, Wake can run the ball, and Duke can't stop the run. A steady diet of Chris Barclay should make this a game that will have you sweating until the final buzzer.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 28, Duke 13
Actual Score:

North Carolina St (-6.5) v Southern Miss: Again, I can't decide. The running games match up perfectly, and I see nothing happening on the ground from either team. However, they can both throw the ball. The difference is that So Miss can't stop the pass (269, -6%), while NC St can (188, +8%). I look for QB Jay Davis to throw for 300 in this game, and lead NC St to a 7 pt victory.

Predicted Score: NC ST 37, So Miss 30
Actual Score:

Michigan (-3) @ Northwestern: