Weekend of October 30-31, 2004
Finally back in the mix. I haven't been keeping up on this like I should have, but then again, I didn't want to post picks without giving them the proper analysis. This week, Im ahead of schedule. First, the weekend of Oct 9 provided some bad high star picks, but some of the lower fliers came through. The lesson, as always, Im an idiot. The last week I posted I was 6-4 overall, leaving the season breakdown as follows:
Rating_____Last Week's Record____Season Overall
LOTW....................0-1.............................1-1
5 Star....................0-2.............................6-5
4 Star....................0-1.............................7-4
3 Star....................4-0.............................8-5
2 Star....................2-0.............................9-3-1
1 Star....................0-1..............................2-3
Total.....................6-4.............................32-20-1 (61%)
Not bad. Here are this week's picks:
5 Star Picks:
Cincinnati (-6) vs. TCU: Cincy is coming off a 49-10 drubbing of a very good Memphis team. They may have lost to Army, but they have been making up for it since. QB Guidugli has been playing exceptionally well, and threw three scores last week. TCU has been struggling all year to beat the mid level teams, getting absolutely destroyed by Texas Tech along the way (70-30). Its a home game for the Bearcats, so give the measly points.
Cincinnati 21, TCU 10 W
Utah (-18.5) @ San Diego State: Utah is rolling. SD St. showed signs of being a decent ball club when they gave an underachiving Michigan squad a run, but since then, they have lost alot of offensive players to injury, and will be starting a new QB this weekend. Utah is up to 6 in the BCS rankings, and plans on showing the Aztecs why. Somewhere around 42-10 should be about right. Utah 51, San Diego St 28 W
Ohio St (-6) vs. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I can't believe Ohio St, coming off a 30-7 victory where they discovered a new running threat, is hosting a Penn State team that failed to score at home against Iowa, and is only giving 6. This is the gift of all gifts. Ohio State 21, Penn State 10 W
4 Star Picks:
Central Michigan (-7) vs. Western Michigan: Fool me once, Western. I took a flier on them against Ball St, and they turtled on me to the tune of a 30 point loss. On the road once more, they face a Central team that barely lost at Toledo last week. Western is coming off of a 30 point loss to Northern Illinois, at home, and should struggle on the road this week. Central MI 24, Western MI 21 (OT) L
3 Star Picks:
Miami (FL) (-21) @ North Carolina: It seems like a shady pick, what with UNC beating NC St at home. I just don't see it that way. The Miami defense is playing alot better, and made the proper adjustments after giving up 38 to Louisville. At the same time, Brock Berlin has decided to play like a Div I quarterback, and the offense is showing alot of life. Give the points, and don't feel bad. North Carolina 31, Miami 21 L
Michigan (-11) v. Michigan State: Do not overrate the Spartans beating on Minnesota. Much like last year, the Gophers had a tremendous let down after losing to Michigan in what has become the most important game of the season for them. They showed their true colors by bouncing back and trashing Illinois 45-0. The same Illini who gave Michigan all they could handle the week before. The Wolverines are on all cylinders right now, with RB Hart providing the running game they lacked early on. A very low number indeed.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 37 (OT) L
Minnesota (-17.5) @ Indiana: See above. Also, the Hoosiers have 4 key injuries that they aren't talking about. This could, and should, be ugly. Indiana 30, Minnesota 21 L
Purdue (-9.5) @ Northwestern: Another road favorite, but this one makes me a tad nervous. The Wildcats showed they were mildcats against Wisconsin last week, putting up a measly 13 points. However, at home, they are known to get quite offensive. Problem, they face Purdue, who can put up some numbers on their own. Look for Orton and the boys to get untracked after a real battle in Ann Arbor last week. 35-21 wouldn't shock me. Northwestern 13, Purdue 10 L
2 Star Picks:
Kansas (-4.5) @ Iowa State: Ride that horse until it throws you off, I say. Kansas has been the golden boys all year, so why stop now. The book continues to put low numbers on them, and I say, reap the rewards, good gambler. They took a beating last week to Oklahoma, but that is to be expected. Their victory over Kansas State demonstrates that they are more than a middle of the pack team, and Iowa State is just crap. Home game or not, the Cyclones will get beaten by a touchdown. Iowa State 13, Kansas 7 L
UCLA (-5) v. Stanford: Home game. That's it. Stanford and UCLA are very close, but on the road, the Cardinal has proven to be below average. The Bruins scored 42 in Tempe last week, and would have upset the Devils if A Walter hadn't turned into Roger Staubach. I expect the Bruin running game to get back on track, and for D Olson to continue to develop as a signal caller. UCLA 21, Stanford 0 W
San Jose St (+16) v. UTEP: The Spartans are my covering darlings. They seem to hang around enough to make it interesting week after week, and even manage an upset or two. UTEP is ripe for the picking. Recently ranked 24 in the BCS, the Miners will be coming in on a high, only to face a gritty Spartan squad in the much and mire of Spartan Stadium. Expect the Miner ground attack to get shut down by the weather, and for the Spartans to air it out and keep this thing close. Love them home dogs..... UTEP 38, San Jose St 20 L
Oklahoma St (+12) v. Oklahoma: When the bricklayer did the work in the new Cowboys stadium, he inlaid the OU symbol as a joke. Ok St hasnt laughed since, and there will be a lot of bad blood this weekend in Stillwater. 12 almost doesn't seem like enough, but the Sooners will have alot more on their hands than they bargain for. Consider this a strong lean.... Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma St. 35 W
One louse star:
Arizona (+7) vs. Oregon State: After giving LSU all they could handle, the Beavers have been nothing short of garbage. Derek Anderson has fallen apart, and no one else in the orange and black has proven to be effective. Arizona, mind you, is terrible, and should never find their way on here. But that is a Bob Stoop defense out there, and this is a home game. Two factors I believe will be enough to keep this thing within 7.
Oregon State 28, Arizona 14 L
Rating_____Last Week's Record____Season Overall
LOTW....................0-1.............................1-1
5 Star....................0-2.............................6-5
4 Star....................0-1.............................7-4
3 Star....................4-0.............................8-5
2 Star....................2-0.............................9-3-1
1 Star....................0-1..............................2-3
Total.....................6-4.............................32-20-1 (61%)
Not bad. Here are this week's picks:
5 Star Picks:
Cincinnati (-6) vs. TCU: Cincy is coming off a 49-10 drubbing of a very good Memphis team. They may have lost to Army, but they have been making up for it since. QB Guidugli has been playing exceptionally well, and threw three scores last week. TCU has been struggling all year to beat the mid level teams, getting absolutely destroyed by Texas Tech along the way (70-30). Its a home game for the Bearcats, so give the measly points.
Cincinnati 21, TCU 10 W
Utah (-18.5) @ San Diego State: Utah is rolling. SD St. showed signs of being a decent ball club when they gave an underachiving Michigan squad a run, but since then, they have lost alot of offensive players to injury, and will be starting a new QB this weekend. Utah is up to 6 in the BCS rankings, and plans on showing the Aztecs why. Somewhere around 42-10 should be about right. Utah 51, San Diego St 28 W
Ohio St (-6) vs. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I can't believe Ohio St, coming off a 30-7 victory where they discovered a new running threat, is hosting a Penn State team that failed to score at home against Iowa, and is only giving 6. This is the gift of all gifts. Ohio State 21, Penn State 10 W
4 Star Picks:
Central Michigan (-7) vs. Western Michigan: Fool me once, Western. I took a flier on them against Ball St, and they turtled on me to the tune of a 30 point loss. On the road once more, they face a Central team that barely lost at Toledo last week. Western is coming off of a 30 point loss to Northern Illinois, at home, and should struggle on the road this week. Central MI 24, Western MI 21 (OT) L
3 Star Picks:
Miami (FL) (-21) @ North Carolina: It seems like a shady pick, what with UNC beating NC St at home. I just don't see it that way. The Miami defense is playing alot better, and made the proper adjustments after giving up 38 to Louisville. At the same time, Brock Berlin has decided to play like a Div I quarterback, and the offense is showing alot of life. Give the points, and don't feel bad. North Carolina 31, Miami 21 L
Michigan (-11) v. Michigan State: Do not overrate the Spartans beating on Minnesota. Much like last year, the Gophers had a tremendous let down after losing to Michigan in what has become the most important game of the season for them. They showed their true colors by bouncing back and trashing Illinois 45-0. The same Illini who gave Michigan all they could handle the week before. The Wolverines are on all cylinders right now, with RB Hart providing the running game they lacked early on. A very low number indeed.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 37 (OT) L
Minnesota (-17.5) @ Indiana: See above. Also, the Hoosiers have 4 key injuries that they aren't talking about. This could, and should, be ugly. Indiana 30, Minnesota 21 L
Purdue (-9.5) @ Northwestern: Another road favorite, but this one makes me a tad nervous. The Wildcats showed they were mildcats against Wisconsin last week, putting up a measly 13 points. However, at home, they are known to get quite offensive. Problem, they face Purdue, who can put up some numbers on their own. Look for Orton and the boys to get untracked after a real battle in Ann Arbor last week. 35-21 wouldn't shock me. Northwestern 13, Purdue 10 L
2 Star Picks:
Kansas (-4.5) @ Iowa State: Ride that horse until it throws you off, I say. Kansas has been the golden boys all year, so why stop now. The book continues to put low numbers on them, and I say, reap the rewards, good gambler. They took a beating last week to Oklahoma, but that is to be expected. Their victory over Kansas State demonstrates that they are more than a middle of the pack team, and Iowa State is just crap. Home game or not, the Cyclones will get beaten by a touchdown. Iowa State 13, Kansas 7 L
UCLA (-5) v. Stanford: Home game. That's it. Stanford and UCLA are very close, but on the road, the Cardinal has proven to be below average. The Bruins scored 42 in Tempe last week, and would have upset the Devils if A Walter hadn't turned into Roger Staubach. I expect the Bruin running game to get back on track, and for D Olson to continue to develop as a signal caller. UCLA 21, Stanford 0 W
San Jose St (+16) v. UTEP: The Spartans are my covering darlings. They seem to hang around enough to make it interesting week after week, and even manage an upset or two. UTEP is ripe for the picking. Recently ranked 24 in the BCS, the Miners will be coming in on a high, only to face a gritty Spartan squad in the much and mire of Spartan Stadium. Expect the Miner ground attack to get shut down by the weather, and for the Spartans to air it out and keep this thing close. Love them home dogs..... UTEP 38, San Jose St 20 L
Oklahoma St (+12) v. Oklahoma: When the bricklayer did the work in the new Cowboys stadium, he inlaid the OU symbol as a joke. Ok St hasnt laughed since, and there will be a lot of bad blood this weekend in Stillwater. 12 almost doesn't seem like enough, but the Sooners will have alot more on their hands than they bargain for. Consider this a strong lean.... Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma St. 35 W
One louse star:
Arizona (+7) vs. Oregon State: After giving LSU all they could handle, the Beavers have been nothing short of garbage. Derek Anderson has fallen apart, and no one else in the orange and black has proven to be effective. Arizona, mind you, is terrible, and should never find their way on here. But that is a Bob Stoop defense out there, and this is a home game. Two factors I believe will be enough to keep this thing within 7.
Oregon State 28, Arizona 14 L
posted by Consigliari at 4:09 PM
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