October 24th, 2009 - Return of the Worm
Man is not a born gambler but, from his experiences in life, he acquires a fascination for the elements of chance, and seeking to emulate his elders, he attempts to exploit these factors in pursuance of reward. It would appear that gambling in the betting sense is a thread in the pattern of social evolution – a thread that has remained unbroken since the dawn of time.
- J Philip Jones Gambling Yesterday and Toady 1973
It has been quite some time since I have graced these pages with my thoughts and ramblings. Today I feel the urge to return to the past and dispense my ideas and prognostications upon you in the hopes that we may all share a touch of success in this wonderful world of wagering. To those new to the blog, for some time I posted my thoughts and rationales behind certain wagering tips in the hopes of giving people a slight edge as they attempt to decide between Team A and Team B. You will find a selection with a letter ranking, indicating the level of faith I have in said pick, followed by a brief (usually) write up of my reasoning behind said pick, and finally a hypothesised score based on my personal comparison of the two teams and my expected outcome. This is not a science, but the selections are based on hours of observation, investigation and education. I am not a professional handicapper and these picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Of course, for those of you who have been around for the past years, welcome back. Let's start with a recap of my action so far this year. Be advised, all of my bets have been on http://www.sportsbook.com/, which I wholeheartedly endorse. If you choose to use them for your own needs, please mention me so that I may get a recommendation bonus. Also, I am happy to print out my results for anyone to audit should they not believe my modest success. That being said, success thus far is as follows:
NCAA Against the Spreaad: 38-25-2 (.615)
NCAA Money Line: 3-1 (.750)
NCAA Overs Bet: 2-4-1 (.429)
NCAA Unders Bet: 3-3 (.500)
-----------------------------------------------
Total Record 46-33-3 (.598)
NFL Total Record: 26-15 (.634)
Composite FB Record: 72-48-3 (.610)
THE PICKS:
Please note that these picks are subject to change. I may pop in during the day with notes on them, depending on how the day progresses or what kind of feeling I get. Use these as a guideline in your own betting. This week, due to a lack of time, I will not be doing a full blown analysis, only snippets. Comments are welcome.
*A* PICKS
MARSHALL (-7) v. Uab: UAB will tend to rope you in with their dual threat QB, Joe Webb. However, Marshall brings it's own offensive weapon in the eponymous Darius Marshall, RB. The grind it out style that the the Thundering Herd employs should be effective enough to keep Webb's talents off the field. And when on the field, the Herd defense demonstrates enough LB speed to turn Webb into a one trick pony. I dont see UAB's defense being able to stop the superior offense of Marshall, allowing them to beat this number fairly comfortably.
Predicted Score: Marshall 27, UAB 14
Actual Score: Marshall 27, UAB 7 [W]
DUKE (-4.5) v Maryland: This year has been unkind to Ralph Friedgen, as MD has lost to such stalwarts as William & Mary, while struggling mightly with numerous other mediocre teams. They do have a solid passing game, but not nearly the offensive firepower that Duke has. At 3-3, the Devils have been a pleasant surprise, and even more pleasant has been the performance of Duke QB Thaddeus Smith. Smith has quietly thrown for 300+ yards and 11 total TDs in his last three games, and looks to do the same this weekend.
Predicted Score: Duke 31, Maryland 23
Actual Score: Duke 17, Maryland 13 [P]
TOLEDO (-2.5) v Temple: Temple has had a resurgence, but they are without their standout freshman running back this week. Despite a decent defensive performance, the Owls will go up against QB Aaron Opelt, who returns from injury this week. Opelt is the one who torched Colorado for 56 pts early in the year, and it is highly likely that he returns with a hot hand this weekend.
Predicted Score: Toledo 28, Temple 10
Actual Score: Temple 40, Toledo 24 [L]
HOUSTON (-16.5) v. Smu: Houston is an offensive juggernaut behind Heisman candidate Case Keenum, and the offensive fireworks should continue against the hapless Mustangs. However, SMU is coached by run and shoot guru June Jones, and cannot be counted on to roll over and die on offense. Be wary of the team that almost beat Navy last week, as they have the system to do some damage. However, Houston is the pick here since their weakness is on the ground - an area of the field SMU ignores on a regular basis. 450 yards for Keenum and three picks for the defense in a blowout.
Predicted Score: Houston 42, SMU 21
Actual Score: Houston 38, SMU 15 [W]
*B* PICKS
SYRACUSE (-10.5) v Akron: Greg Paulus will throw all over Akron, as the Zips have no one to cover top notch wideout Mike Williams.
Predicted Score: Syracuse 35, Akron 14
Actual Score: Syracuse 28, Akron 14 [W]
MIAMI (FL) (-4.5) v Clemson: Smart money likes Clemson, as this game opened at (-7). However, the deciding factor will be QB in this game, and Jacory Harris will make sure the Canes get the last laugh.
Predicted Score: Miami 24, Clemson 17
Actual Score: Clemson 40, Miami 37 OT [L]
Ohio/Kent St UNDER 47 [W]
Penn State (-4.5) @ MICHIGAN: This game makes me a tad nervous, but PSU's defense is too strong for a young Michigan team that is still trying to find it's way. Look for the Wolverines to shuttle their young Qbs in and out, looking for something that works.
Predicted Score: Penn State 28, Michigan 7
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Michigan 10 [W]
Iowa (+1.5) @ MICH STATE: MSU is the trendy pick here, but Iowa just keeps getting it done as an underdog. Keep riding them until they prove they cant handle it.
Predicted Score: Iowa 17, Mich St 14
Actual Score: Iowa 15, Michigan St 13 [W]
Tcu (-2.5) @ BYU: When a game is this close, take the stronger defense. TCU can move the ball just enough to give them the points they will need to overcome the Cougars, who are looking for revenge after the Horns busted their BCS bubble just last year.
Predicted Score: TCU 23, BYU 17
Actual Score: TCU 38, BYU 7 [W]
*C* PICKS
OHIO (-10) v Kent St [L]
Ok St (-9.5) @ Baylor: Baylor QB Robert Griffin is still out, and despite the injuries to Ok St, they have much more depth to absorb the losses. The Cowboy way wins out over the undermanned Bears. [W]
Indiana (+4.5) @ NORTHWESTERN [W]
Auburn (+8) @ LSU [L]
Tennessee (+16) @ ALABAMA: Look for Monte Kiffin to come up with a way to shut down the Bama passing game. Mark Ingram is a fine RB for the Tide, but he wont be enough to cover this number. As always, factor in the total ineptitude of Jonathan Crompton when making this
pick. [W]
*D* PICKS
Uconn (+7) @ WEST VIRGINIA: This is a 10 point game, but the emotion the Husky players will be feeling should push it within the 7 [W]
UTAH ST (-1) v La Tech: A hunch. They gotta win a close one one of these days. [W]
Arizona St (+6.5) @ STANFORD [L]
PITT (-6.5) v South Florida: Im not excited about this pick [W]
- J Philip Jones Gambling Yesterday and Toady 1973
It has been quite some time since I have graced these pages with my thoughts and ramblings. Today I feel the urge to return to the past and dispense my ideas and prognostications upon you in the hopes that we may all share a touch of success in this wonderful world of wagering. To those new to the blog, for some time I posted my thoughts and rationales behind certain wagering tips in the hopes of giving people a slight edge as they attempt to decide between Team A and Team B. You will find a selection with a letter ranking, indicating the level of faith I have in said pick, followed by a brief (usually) write up of my reasoning behind said pick, and finally a hypothesised score based on my personal comparison of the two teams and my expected outcome. This is not a science, but the selections are based on hours of observation, investigation and education. I am not a professional handicapper and these picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Of course, for those of you who have been around for the past years, welcome back. Let's start with a recap of my action so far this year. Be advised, all of my bets have been on http://www.sportsbook.com/, which I wholeheartedly endorse. If you choose to use them for your own needs, please mention me so that I may get a recommendation bonus. Also, I am happy to print out my results for anyone to audit should they not believe my modest success. That being said, success thus far is as follows:
NCAA Against the Spreaad: 38-25-2 (.615)
NCAA Money Line: 3-1 (.750)
NCAA Overs Bet: 2-4-1 (.429)
NCAA Unders Bet: 3-3 (.500)
-----------------------------------------------
Total Record 46-33-3 (.598)
NFL Total Record: 26-15 (.634)
Composite FB Record: 72-48-3 (.610)
THE PICKS:
Please note that these picks are subject to change. I may pop in during the day with notes on them, depending on how the day progresses or what kind of feeling I get. Use these as a guideline in your own betting. This week, due to a lack of time, I will not be doing a full blown analysis, only snippets. Comments are welcome.
*A* PICKS
MARSHALL (-7) v. Uab: UAB will tend to rope you in with their dual threat QB, Joe Webb. However, Marshall brings it's own offensive weapon in the eponymous Darius Marshall, RB. The grind it out style that the the Thundering Herd employs should be effective enough to keep Webb's talents off the field. And when on the field, the Herd defense demonstrates enough LB speed to turn Webb into a one trick pony. I dont see UAB's defense being able to stop the superior offense of Marshall, allowing them to beat this number fairly comfortably.
Predicted Score: Marshall 27, UAB 14
Actual Score: Marshall 27, UAB 7 [W]
DUKE (-4.5) v Maryland: This year has been unkind to Ralph Friedgen, as MD has lost to such stalwarts as William & Mary, while struggling mightly with numerous other mediocre teams. They do have a solid passing game, but not nearly the offensive firepower that Duke has. At 3-3, the Devils have been a pleasant surprise, and even more pleasant has been the performance of Duke QB Thaddeus Smith. Smith has quietly thrown for 300+ yards and 11 total TDs in his last three games, and looks to do the same this weekend.
Predicted Score: Duke 31, Maryland 23
Actual Score: Duke 17, Maryland 13 [P]
TOLEDO (-2.5) v Temple: Temple has had a resurgence, but they are without their standout freshman running back this week. Despite a decent defensive performance, the Owls will go up against QB Aaron Opelt, who returns from injury this week. Opelt is the one who torched Colorado for 56 pts early in the year, and it is highly likely that he returns with a hot hand this weekend.
Predicted Score: Toledo 28, Temple 10
Actual Score: Temple 40, Toledo 24 [L]
HOUSTON (-16.5) v. Smu: Houston is an offensive juggernaut behind Heisman candidate Case Keenum, and the offensive fireworks should continue against the hapless Mustangs. However, SMU is coached by run and shoot guru June Jones, and cannot be counted on to roll over and die on offense. Be wary of the team that almost beat Navy last week, as they have the system to do some damage. However, Houston is the pick here since their weakness is on the ground - an area of the field SMU ignores on a regular basis. 450 yards for Keenum and three picks for the defense in a blowout.
Predicted Score: Houston 42, SMU 21
Actual Score: Houston 38, SMU 15 [W]
*B* PICKS
SYRACUSE (-10.5) v Akron: Greg Paulus will throw all over Akron, as the Zips have no one to cover top notch wideout Mike Williams.
Predicted Score: Syracuse 35, Akron 14
Actual Score: Syracuse 28, Akron 14 [W]
MIAMI (FL) (-4.5) v Clemson: Smart money likes Clemson, as this game opened at (-7). However, the deciding factor will be QB in this game, and Jacory Harris will make sure the Canes get the last laugh.
Predicted Score: Miami 24, Clemson 17
Actual Score: Clemson 40, Miami 37 OT [L]
Ohio/Kent St UNDER 47 [W]
Penn State (-4.5) @ MICHIGAN: This game makes me a tad nervous, but PSU's defense is too strong for a young Michigan team that is still trying to find it's way. Look for the Wolverines to shuttle their young Qbs in and out, looking for something that works.
Predicted Score: Penn State 28, Michigan 7
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Michigan 10 [W]
Iowa (+1.5) @ MICH STATE: MSU is the trendy pick here, but Iowa just keeps getting it done as an underdog. Keep riding them until they prove they cant handle it.
Predicted Score: Iowa 17, Mich St 14
Actual Score: Iowa 15, Michigan St 13 [W]
Tcu (-2.5) @ BYU: When a game is this close, take the stronger defense. TCU can move the ball just enough to give them the points they will need to overcome the Cougars, who are looking for revenge after the Horns busted their BCS bubble just last year.
Predicted Score: TCU 23, BYU 17
Actual Score: TCU 38, BYU 7 [W]
*C* PICKS
OHIO (-10) v Kent St [L]
Ok St (-9.5) @ Baylor: Baylor QB Robert Griffin is still out, and despite the injuries to Ok St, they have much more depth to absorb the losses. The Cowboy way wins out over the undermanned Bears. [W]
Indiana (+4.5) @ NORTHWESTERN [W]
Auburn (+8) @ LSU [L]
Tennessee (+16) @ ALABAMA: Look for Monte Kiffin to come up with a way to shut down the Bama passing game. Mark Ingram is a fine RB for the Tide, but he wont be enough to cover this number. As always, factor in the total ineptitude of Jonathan Crompton when making this
pick. [W]
*D* PICKS
Uconn (+7) @ WEST VIRGINIA: This is a 10 point game, but the emotion the Husky players will be feeling should push it within the 7 [W]
UTAH ST (-1) v La Tech: A hunch. They gotta win a close one one of these days. [W]
Arizona St (+6.5) @ STANFORD [L]
PITT (-6.5) v South Florida: Im not excited about this pick [W]
posted by Consigliari at 6:17 PM
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