October 29, 2005

*****A*****
Kansas St (+7.5) v Colorado: KSU getting 7.5 at home seems like a gift, after they gave A&M all they could handle last week. KSY has a strong run and pass defense, against comparable offensive stats by Col. However, Col, while adept against the run (85, +85%) is inedpt against the pass (253, -10%). KSU's young QB is getting better each week, and should be able to exploit the Buffs. Perhaps the Cats won't win this game, but they have a strong enough defense, and a balanced offense, sufficient to keep this game under 7.

Predicted Score: Colorado 28, Kansas St 24
Actual Score:

Rutgers (-6.5) v. Navy

BYU (-6.5) v Air Force: A favorite of mine. AF has demonstrated what a disaster they are against a potent offense. Through the air, AF gives up 265 ypg (-13%) while BYU is throwing for 317 ypg, which looks even better with a +25% var rtg. And though some point to the explosive AF running game (251, +36%), BYU's strength is stopping the run (130 +23%). I look for BYU to dare AF to throw the ball, and for them to fail miserably, while QB John Beck picks apart the AF secondary.

Predicted Score: BYU 42, Air Force 28
Actual Score:

TCU (-7) @ San Diego St:

Texas Tech (-11.5) @ Baylor:

Tulane (-1) v. Marshall:

****B****

New Mexico (-6) v. Colorado St: CSU has a dynamic offense, and should put up a decent amount of points. However, NM recently shut down Wyoming on the road, and CSU is 0-3 on the road, meaning they won't be nearly as explosive as in past games. The key to this game is RB Dontrell Moore for NM, who will help the Lobos control the clock. NM averages 211 ypg on the ground (28%) while CSU allows 198 (-9%). The passing yardage should even out, while NM wins the battle on the ground, and wins this by a TD.

Predicted Score: 35-28
Actual Score:

Cincinatti (+5) @ Syracuse: I have really struggled with this game, but all signs point to Cincy pulling a slight upset. Cuse has been horrible this season, road or home. And though CIN is not a strong team, the numbers indicate they have the offense to be competitive. They average 151 ypg rushing, while Cuse allows 169 (-9%). Meanwhile, Cuse can't run (116, -19%) or pass (138, -33%), meaning the average Bearcat defense will not be tested. Look for Cincy to grind out a close victory, or at least cover.

Predicted Score: Cincinatti 21, Syracuse 17
Actual Score:

Nebraska (-1.5) v Oklahoma: All of the "experts" are going with OK, but not me. The numbers indicate that this game will be a tight one, maybe even an overtime affair. Both teams dominate in stopping the run, though OK has a much better rush offense (155, +12%) However, Nebraska brings a strong run d (107, +39%), which will be able to focus on the Sooner run game due to OK's anemic pass offense (160, -26%). Meanwhile, the difference maker will be Nebraska's ability to throw the ball (215, +2%) against a Sooner defense allowing 223 ypg in the air. I like the Huskers to win a squeaker.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 23, Oklahoma 20
Actual Score:

Alabama (-34) v Utah St: Like any game with a blow out line, the key will be how much damage the starters can do before the reserves come in. However, I beleive at a school like Bama, the reserves will be very talented and hungry to prove themselves. In an undefeated season, the reserves see little action. This means that when they get a shot, they will play like starters against a team like Utah St. Bama can throw and run (225 +9%, 150 +12%) while Utah St can not do either (173 -39%, 95 -44%). Utah St can stop the run a little, but they are horrible against the pass. Brodie Croyle should have 4-5 TDs passing when he leaves in the third, en route to a high scoring affair.

Predicted Score: Alabama 52, Utah St 7
Actual Score:

Iowa State (+10) @ Texas A&M: 10 seems like an awful lot for two teams that match up well on paper. A&M is great offensively (P 236 +6%, R 238 +42%) but ISU has some things going in its favor. They play the run very well (108, +41%) while A&M struggles to stop the pass (298, -29%). I think the underrated Cyclone passing game (221 +5%) will exploit the A&M secondary enough to keep them in this game to the very end, though I imagine it will be the running of QB Reggie McNeal that confounds ISU most of the day. 10 is still too many points.

Predicted Score: Texas A&M 31, Iowa St 28
Actual Score:

Bowling Green (-14.5) v Akron:

Troy (+3) @ UL Lafayette:

***C***

Ohio (-4) @ Buffalo: This game worries me. Early in the week, I was all over Ohio, but the power rating on this game is only (-2), while many are predicting a tight game. If anything, play the under here. It's sure to be around 35 total points. As for the game, the key stat is Ohio's running game (185 +1%) against the anemic Buffalo run defense (214, -28%). Ohio can't stop the pass at all, but lucky for them Buffalo can't throw the ball (153, -34%). Then again, they can't run it either (100, -51%). If Ohio can run the ball, and control the clock, they should win by a touchdown. However, if their awful passing game is shut down by the strong Buffalo pass defense (123 -77% v 150 +43%) then Buffalo can go 9 in the box and stuff Ohio. I think the Bearcats will be battle tested after beating Pitt and pull this out.

Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Buffalo 10
Actual Score:

Central Florida (+2.5) @ East Carolina: Another game I went back and forth on. East Carolina can certainly throw the ball, but so can CFL. Neither team defends the pass too well, meaning the game will turn on the CF running game (139 -10%) getting well against an atrocious ECU rush defense (225 -20%). ECY meanwhile cannot run the ball (106 -43%) while CFL plays fantastic run defense (132 +21%). I look for CFL to be able to sit back in a zone and control the game knowing ECU cant move the ball on the ground, then win with a balanced attack.

Predicted Score: Central Fla 35, East Carolina 27
Actual Score:

Florida State (-17) v. Maryland: Normally I don't play MD games, but this week, their QB S Hollenbech is likely to sit. If he does, look for FSU to dominate the otherwise weak Terripins. While FSU's passing game will be tested by a strong MD pass d (155, -14%), I look for FSU to finally get a running game going against a run d allowing 186 ypg. MD's biggest strength anywhere is throwing the ball, but FSU is tough against the pass, and will dominate even more with Hollenbech out. FSU in a romp.

Predicted Score: Florida St 37, Maryland 14
Actual Score:

UTEP (-20) @ Rice: I don't really want to play this game, but Rice is so horrible, I have to. Rice can run the ball, mind you (203 +15%) however, UTEP's strength is against the run (138 +15%). Meanwhile, Rice can not do anything through the air (-107%), while UTEP's 280 ypg passing (+19%) will do well against a Rice defense allowing 241 ypg on their own. RB Tyler Ebell should also get well against a Rice defense allowing 222 ypg on the ground. For a team like Rice, being at home has no advantage.

Predicted Score: UTEP 48, Rice 21
Actual Score:

Northern Illinois (-28) v Ball State:

Kansas (+5.5) v Missouri:

Mississippi St (pk) @ Kentucky:

**D**

Wake Forest (-14) @ Duke: I have been vacillating on this game all week. I like Duke, but I just think they may be a horse short. They have a great pass defense, and Wake loses their starting QB, who has turned the season around. However, Wake can run the ball, and Duke can't stop the run. A steady diet of Chris Barclay should make this a game that will have you sweating until the final buzzer.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 28, Duke 13
Actual Score:

North Carolina St (-6.5) v Southern Miss: Again, I can't decide. The running games match up perfectly, and I see nothing happening on the ground from either team. However, they can both throw the ball. The difference is that So Miss can't stop the pass (269, -6%), while NC St can (188, +8%). I look for QB Jay Davis to throw for 300 in this game, and lead NC St to a 7 pt victory.

Predicted Score: NC ST 37, So Miss 30
Actual Score:

Michigan (-3) @ Northwestern:

October 22, 2005

Ouch, ouch, ouch. 11-18 last week. 11 wins, 18 bad losses. Some excusable, most, just way off. I tried to interject more analysis, this time studying offensive and defensive units, trying to determine exploitable weaknesses. Well, the only weakness was me. This week, I have added a new factor. In analyzing team defenses and offenses, I was only looking at the numbers, and ignoring what those number meant. Even though a team may give up 200 passing yards per game, the question is: Against who? If the 5 teams they have played average 250 passing yards per game, then that is a solid defense. But if the 5 teams average 150, the passing defense is worse than expected. Therefore, included in the analysis are Variable Ratings. These ratings will tell you whether a defensive unit is over performing or undre performing. A positive variable rating means that the unit is even better than the numbers indicate, while a negative variable rating indicates the unit is even worse than you would think. EXAMPLE: Maryland averages 158 rushing yards per game, but has a (.44) rating. This means that they are averaging 44% fewer yards than they should. Conversely, Virginia Tech gives up 103 rushing yards per game, but has a .72 rating, meaning that they allow 72% fewer yards than they should on average. This would indicate that in a matchup, Va Tech's defense should dominate Maryland's rushing game even more than the numbers indicate. On to the picks!

Last Week: 11-18 (38%)

Year to Date: 78-62-3 (56.7%)

Last Week's A PICKS: 3-2 (60%)

Year to Date A PICKS: 12-6 (67%)


*****A PICKS******

Northern Illinois (-10.5) @ Kent St: Northern Illinois has a strong offense, but their strong passing def will be the difference here, limiting Kent State's excellent passing game. The UNI passing game [273 ypg (.10)] and the rushing game [228 ypg (.25)] will test the weak Kent St defense [230 rush ypg (-.22); 236 pass ypg] . Kent St throws for 288 (.14) ypg, however, UNI allows only 206 with a (.28) variance. This will be a tough game on the road, but the Huskies should have the offensive firepower to pull away late.

Predicted Score: No Illinois 45, Kent St 31
Actual Score:

Houston (+2) @ Mississippi State: My favorite game, as the stats point to a decisive Houston victory. Of course, taking road dogs is never fun, but I like what I see in this matchup. The MSU offense is very weak, but the Cougar offense looks potent enough to overtake a scrappy MSU defense. Houston averages 188 rypg (.25) and 285 pypg (.23), which should be enough to challenge the MSU rush def [124 ypg(.23)] and weak pass def [230 ypg (.05)]. Houston does give up 407 total ypg, but MSU only averages 273, and will be hard pressed to score enough to keep up.

Predicted Score: Houston 28, MSU 17
Actual Score:

Tulsa (-15.5) v SMU: I love this game too. Tulsa at home, against an up and down SMU team, should roll. Tulsa averages 393 tot ypg while SMU allows 416 ypg. Tulsa can run the ball (163) and throw (230) and should have no problem against a Mustang defense that can defend against neither (155, 261). The key stat is the SMU passing off [182 ypg (-.14)] against the very strong Tulsa pass def [139 ypg (.20)]. Tulsa should get up early, and have the passing defense to keep SMU from getting close.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, SMU 14
Actual Score:

Fresno St (-28.5) @ Idaho: Even on the road, it is likely that Fresno will roll once again. Idaho's stats are anemic, most notably a rushing off averaging 60 ypg (-1.40). On the other side, Fresno's defense is strong against both the pass and the run [(.33) and (.19)], while their run game [169 ypg (.15)] should exploit a weak Vandal run defense [172 ypg (-.22)].

Predicted Score: Fresno St 49, Idaho 14
Actual Score

Texas (-17) v. Texas Tech: This game opened at -15, and I still like it. The Longhorns are so strong in every facet, they can afford to divert attention to the Tech passing game, and abandon trying to stop what is actually a very weak run game [101 ypg (-.01)]. The variable indicates that the Raiders are only as strong as the defense they face, and in this case, its a run def allowing 92 ypg with a variance of (1.04), which shows that Texas is not only strong against the run, but they have been shutting down very good offenses. Meanwhile, Tex averages 264 yards on the ground (.47). The big issue is Tech's passing game [472 ypg (.52)] which is just a monster, but the Longhorns have a very solid pass def, enough to force Cody Hodges into too many mistakes [147 ypg (.20)]. And those pass def numbers are from games that have been blowouts, with opponents chucking it late. I like the Longhorns to keep blowing out big numbers, and end the talk of Tex Tech becoming a real player.

Predicted Score: Texas 48, Texas Tech 21
Actual Score:

****B PICKS****

Pittsburgh (-13) v. Syracuse: The Orange are terrible, and Pittsburgh has quietly gotten on a nice run, dominating Cincinnati then South Florida. At home, they should score at will against a struggling Cuse defense. The Orange will fail to move the ball in the air, though they may hamper the Pitt passing game slightly. The Cuse passing offense averages 147 ypg (-.32) vs. the Pitt pass defense giving up 164 ypg (.24)

Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 35, Syracuse, 7
Actual Score:

Air Force (PK) v. TCU: If ever there was a pick em, this is it. TCU is tough, but on the road, they should have a difficult time keeping up with a Falcon offense that is on a roll. In addition, the Frogs will likely be without QB Tye Gunn, leaving them without a key offensive weapon. TCU has a strong run game [161 ypg (.13)] but Air Force has an equally tough run def [135 ypg (.15)]. Air Force meanwhile rushes for 252 ypg (.35), which should test a very good TCU rush def [119 ypg (.15)]. The weak Air Force passing game may limit them, but being at home should push them over the edge.

Predicted Score: Air Force 38, TCU 35
Actual Score:

Tennessee (+4) @ Alabama: This game is dead even, in every sense of the word. Tennessee is not spectacular, but they grind out win after win. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off of a poor 13-10 victory over Ole Miss, that showed they arent as explosive without top receiving threat Tyrone Prothro. Both rush defenses are excellent, with Alabama's performing much better statistically [163 ypg (.11) v. 98 ypg (-.07)], but both defenses have been extremely tough [TN 93 ypg (.53) v. Bama 93 ypg (.44)] . I imagine this game will finish well under the number, and come down to a field goal, meaning a +4 will come in handy at game's end.

Predicted Score: Alabama 16, Tennessee 13
Actual Score:

Miami (OH) (-10.5) @ Eastern Michigan: The running games should be the difference here. Mia averages 156 ypg (.08) against EMUs defense of 228 ypg (-.24), while the Mia rush def is giving up 141 yards, but faces a weak EMU run game averaging 101 ypg (-.62). EMU can throw the ball a little, and Mia can't stop it all that well, but against an anemic run game, they should be able to lay back in the soft zone. 10.5 does in fact seem like a little too many points, but the Hawks should just barely cover against an overachieving EMU squad.

Predicted Score: Miami 48, East Michigan 24
Actual Score:

Toledo (-30) v. Buffalo: Home game, and a strong running game to make up for the very strong Buffalo pass defense [156 ypg (.49)]. Toledo averages 221 on the ground (.17) and goes against Buffalo's run def giving up 201 per game (-.29). The key is that Buffalo can not move the ball offensively, averaging 97 and 139 yards per game rushing and passing respectively. The Rockets will run the ball right down the throats of the Bulls.

Predicted Score: Toledo 42, Buffalo 7
Actual Score:

Boise State (-18.5) @ Utah St: Utah State stinks, plain and simple. They average 97 yards on the ground (-.48) and 166 through the air (-.39), meaning that they will struggle mightily against a Boise St defense with var ratings of (.07) and (.10). The key is Boise's 220 rushing ypg (.30) against Utah St's 148 ypg rush def (-.15). The Broncos will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball, until Utah St is ground into the turf.

Predicted Score: Boise State 45, Utah State 14
Actual Score:

Navy (-7) @ Rice: I don't like picking Navy on the road, but Rice seems to get worse and worse each week. Navy struggles with everyone they play, playing many close games. On the road, this may be a 3 point game, but I think they can run the ball well enough to give the Owls fits. Navy averages 267 ypg on the ground (.34) while Rice allows 206 per game (-.20). The difference should be enough to allow Navy to hold the ball, and keep the Rice running game off the field [206 ypg (.17)]. The key is that Rice cannot throw the ball [86 ypg (-.96)] allowing Navy to play 8 in the box all day.

Predicted Score: Navy 35, Rice 14
Actual Score:

***C***

Michgan St (-12.5) v Northwestern: The key stat is MSU's passing off at 318 (.26) v NW's passing def at 319 (-.23). Drew Stanton, the highest rated passer in the nation, should throw at will on the Cats, forcing them to abandon their running game [215 ypg, (.30)] MSU's rush defense is also at 122 ypg, and should bottle up the Cats early on. The only problem is that NW can throw the ball [300+ ypg], and may score late to cover.

Predicted Score: Michigan State 45, Northwestern 30
Actual Score:

Michigan (+2.5) @ Iowa: This game is a real tough call. Iowa has great momentum, and has won 22 in a row at home. However, the stats point to a Michigan resurgence, especially following a hard fought win over a very good Penn St team. MI throws for 225 ypg, while Iowa gives up 238 per game in the air. Iowa has a strong run game [182 ypg (.12)] and an average passing game that should be better [226 ypg (-.12)], yet they go against a Michigan defense that is much better than the stats indicate, with variable ratings of (.32) and (.37) for the rush and pass defenses respectively. I expect the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball, with Chad Henne to have a resurgence.

Predicted Score: Michigan 23, Iowa 20
Actual Score:

Florida State (-30) @ Duke: I really want to take Duke here, but Im going to treat this game the way I treated the Miami game last week. Florida State is coming off of a very tough loss, and will look to make a statement. Poor Duke will just get caught in the way. Duke does have a great pass def [182 ypg (.17)] but FSU has a spectacular passing game [328 ypg (.38)] as well as an excellent run def [93 (.68)] which should keep Duke under 150 total yards. The Duke passing game is non existant [90 ypg (-1.01)]

Predicted Score: Florida State 49, Duke 14
Actual Score:

Nebraska (PK) @ Missouri: Mizzou has been tough lately, but Nebraska has quietly had an excellent season, lead by a spectacular defense. Missouri has great offensive numbers, with 235 passing ypg (.35) and 240 rushing ypg (.15), but they will be hard pressed to match those totals against the Nebraska defense, allowing 224 passing (.14) and 65 rushing (1.05). The key stat is Nebraska's 204 passing ypg against Missouri's passing defense [219 ypg (-.14)]

Predicted Score: Nebraska 27, Missouri 21
Actual Score:

Rutgers (-3.5) @ Uconn: I loved this game when I first saw it, but I have slowly learned to hate it. Statistically, UConn is extremely tough, but they showed how little that matters without an experienced quarterback, losing to a pathetic Cincinnati team. UConn has a very good running game [237 ypg (.36)], but the Rutgers run defense is equally tough [116 ypg (.23)]. And while UConn stops the pass very well [129 ypg (.35)], Rutgers has thrown the ball very well against good passing defenses [237 ypg (.22)]. Last week, UConn lost their back up, a freshman, and are now stuck auditioning third stringers. This should be enough to cost them an otherwise even matchup.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 20, UConn 10
Actual Score:

Oregon State (+9.5) @ UCLA: Don't get me wrong, I love the Bruins and their offense. However, their defense has been a major disappointment, almost costing them a game at Washington State, and threatening to make this week's game against Oregon State a tight one. The Beavers have struggled all season, but they have some surprising numbers. Of course, their passing game [321 ypg (.25)] is very good, and will test a Bruin passing def that looks good on paper, but isn't that spectacular in comparison to the passing games it has faced [187 ypg (.04)]. Couple that with QB Matt Moore coming back to LA after transferring. The key stat is OSUs excellent rush def [112 ypg (.81)] whose variable rating shows that they are even better than the numbers indicate, which should give the very good Bruin run game trouble. OSU's biggest weakness is against the pass, so it will be up to Drew Olson to pull the game out.

Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Oregon State 28
Actual Score:

Penn State (-18) @ Illinois: I didn't want to include this game after the number moved to 18, but I had to. The numbers indicate that the Nittany Lions are at least 28 points better than the Illini, and I have to think a three touchdown victory is doable. PSU averages 203 yards on the ground (.32), and goes against a rush def giving up 227 ypg (-.23). PSU should also be able to throw against a defense allowing 230 ypg. The key stat is that while Illinois averages 150 yards on the ground (.11), the Lions allow 101 per game, with a variable rating of (.96). If the Lions can prevent the Illini from making up those lost yards in the air, they should roll. I believe they have way too much speed for the rebuilding Illini.

Predicted Score: Penn State 38, Illinois 10
Actual Score:

Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona: The Cats gave USC a nice run, then lost at home to Stanford, hardly awe inspiring. Arizona has a terrible offense, even though the passing game has slowly been improving. The run game has a (-.57) variable rating, while Oregon's run def has a (.58). Once the Ducks shut down the running game, they can sit back and keep Zona from moving the ball through the air as well. Meanwhile, Oregon throws for 338 ypg, which should challenge a good zona passing def [192 ypg (.34)]. However, they allow 199 rushing yards per game, and RB T Whitehead should find some room to keep everyone honest.

Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Arizona 14
Actual Score:

Auburn (+6) @ LSU: Dead even, as far as I can tell. Both teams are very good defensively, with LSU's run defense being the most impressive [69 ypg (.86)]. However, Auburn's Brandon Cox is improving weekly, and may have made the leap when he lead Auburn to 28 second half points in a tight game at Arkansas last week. Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has been strong, allowing 116 (.26) and 151 (.21) on the ground and in the air. The travel is tough for those visiting LSU, so if the Tigers are tired, this could be a tough one to cover. I think they manage just fine.

Predicted Score: Auburn 21, LSU 20
Actual Score:

Arizona St (-10) @ Stanford: ASU has struggled as of late, and was whitewashed at home by Oregon. Meanwhile, Stanford has a two game winning streak, and looks like a team finding its groove. Which means, forget everything you know, and assume the slumping team will blow out the streakers. ASU has a fantastic offense that will run it up on the Cardinal while Stanford's inability to move the ball will help ASU make up for their otherwise very weak defense [463 ypg]. If Stanford plays perfectly, like in Wash St, then they will keep this game close. But after dominating Oregon St in Corvallis, I think the Sun Devils can pull the same trick this weekend in Palo Alto.

Predicted Score: Arizona State 42, Stanford 31
Actual Score:

October 15, 2005

It's amazing what a little time and analysis can do for a record. After consecutive weeks of .500 level picks, this past weekend was a return to normalcy. A 9-5 finish for A-B-C picks is a solid performance, especially considering that Wake Forest covered the Florida State pick with a TD with 20 seconds left, and Texas Tech won by 3 while giving 4 . Getting those two games back would have produced a spectacular week, but we will take 9-5.

Obviously, the most disheartening performance came from Washington State, who absolutely turned into a pumpkin for no reason what so ever, allowing a dismal Stanford team to beat them in their own house. However, a late Navy rally made up for that awful game and left a sweet taste in the mouths of many loyal readers.

This week will be a tough one, and even the top tier picks don't feel as strong as week's past. However, we trudge along and offer these selections for your review:

Last Week: 9-5 (.643)

Year-to-Date: 67-44-3 (.614)

**A**

Bowling Green (-23) @ Buffalo: BG started off horribly, blowing games to Wisconsin and Boise St. Lately, however, they have been scoring points in bunches, including 70 at Temple. Buffalo on the other hand has scored 31 pts in 5 games, all losses. The problems for BG will be a terrible run defense, though it likely wont be tested by Buffalo, and Buffalo's pass defense, coming in allowing 150 ypg. Look for Omar Jacobs to test that defense, but mostly for PJ Pope to run wild and control the clock.

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 45, Buffalo, 14
Actual Score: Bowling Green 27, Buffalo 7 (L)

Air Force (-13.5) v. UNLV: Admittedly, this line is a tad high. AF has been trying to find their identity, and despite losing, they showed they can be an explosive passing offense against Navy. This will come in handy against an awful UNLV pass defense, that is nonetheless 9th in the nation against the run. AF's biggest weakness is its lack of a pass rush (only 5 sacks) but that shouldnt be a problem against a Rebels team starting a freshman backup who has had little success thus far.

Predicted Score: Air Force 31, UNLV 14
Actual Score: Air Force 42, UNLV 7 (W)

UConn (-7.5) @ Cincinnati: This number feels like it should be higher. UConn is no. 1 in the nation in total defense, and has the 9th best rushing attack. Cincy meanwhile has struggled to score points all season (19 ppg), and brings the 80th ranked defense into the game. Uconn starts a rookie QB with little passing ability. However, his devotion to running the ball will keep him from making the mistakes that can cost a heavy favorite. UConn will control the game and limit the Bearcats to under 10 pts.

Predicted Score: UConn 28, Cincy 7
Actual Score: Cincy 28, UConn 17 (L)

Nevada (-1.5) v La Tech: This game features two high powered passing attacks. Nevada has taken awhile to get thier offense in order, but the last two games have shown signs that the Wolfpack have got things together. La Tech's lambasting of Hawaii is overrated, as the Warriors were dogged by long travel. This will be a high scoring affair, and even a 3 pt win will cover this, so take the home team.

Predicted Score: Nevada 48, La Tech 40
Actual Score: Nevada 37, La Tech 27 (W)

Hawaii (-20) v New Mexico St: Speaking of Hawaii......talk about Jekell and Hyde. On the road, they are putrid, but at home they are the 99 Rams. The have a superb passing game and will exploit the long travel hours all visitors must log. NMS is an awful team, despite their improving offense. They are coming off a 30 point loss at home, and will struggle to keep Hawaii under 50.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 52, NM St 24
Actual Score: Hawaii 49, NM St 28 (W)

**B**

Alabama (-13.5) @ Mississippi: This one looked like a trap at the open, but a more detailed look reveals that Alabama is for real, and likely to take advantage of Ole Miss. So far, the tightest game for the Tide has been with Arkansas, who boasts the 4th best rushing attack in the nation. Against a team like Ole Miss, with the 98th best offense in the nation, the 6th ranked Tide defense will strangle the Rebels. Bama's passing game is hurting with the loss of Tyrone Prothro, but the remaining wide outs are big and fast, and Brodie Croyle will be quite efficient with the 36th best running game taking the pressue off of him

Predicted Score: Alabama 31, Mississippi 10
Actual Score: Alabama 13, Mississippi 10 (L)

Colorado (+17) @ Texas: TX is a juggernaut, no doubt. However, last week's crushing of Oklahoma is not indicative of the kind of result you should expect from all of their games. Admittedly, COL isnt the bastion of consistency you would hope for in an upset candidate, however, they bring a balanced attack to Austin that should be strong enough to cover such a large number. Texas is balanced, with the 11th best offense and 5th best defense. However, their strength is running the ball, and the COL rush defense is 6th in the nation. Factor in the 25th best offense in the nation, and COL should be able to move the ball enough (especially through the air) to keep this close.

Predicted Score: Texas 28, Colorado 17
Actual Score: Texas 42, Colorado 17 (L)

Louisville (-7) @ West Virginia: Tough number, I agree. A touchdown is alot to give when travelling to WV. However, this is not the same WV team that has been tough on their opponents all year. Three key injuries (NT, CB, and RB J Gwaltney) will weaken the 'neers, meaning the 9th ranked WV defense will be significantly hampered, as will their 14th ranked rushing offense. WV is not very effective againt the pass, which is the L'ville bread and butter. The Cards have the 13th ranked rush D, in addition to a strong pass rush lead by DE E Dumerville and his 15 sacks. Look for the Cards to hold the limited WV offense in check long enough to rack up two late touchdowns to pull away.

Predicted Score: Louisville 35, West Virginia 24
Actual Score: West Virginia 46, Louisville 44 (L)

Miami (FLA) (-41) @ Temple: Middle of the season, and I am recommending giving 41! I must be high, because this is a college hoops line, but I still feel like they can cover. The bottom line is that Miami will pitch a shut out. If they dont, they likely wont cover. But with the release of Bobby Wallace as coach of the Owls, its likely this team will mail it in, and against Miami, that will be a disaster. The Canes are trying to hone their passing game, and will look at this game like a passing league game. I doubt Temple crosses the 50.

Predicted Score: Miami 45, Temple 0
Actual Score: Miami 34, Temple 3 (L)

SMU (-2) v East Carolina: I like this game for mostly superficial reasons. ECU is a team that struggles on the road, while SMU is coming off of a win at UAB (not easy) and has a home victory over TCU under its belt. They are an average team, but are no more flawed than ECU. The Pirates have an exceptional passing game (258 ypg), while SMU has a poor secondary. It seems like the recipe for disaster, but I look for SMU to be opportunistic and force ECU's young offense into mistakes.

Predicted Score: SMU 27, East Carolina 21
Actual Score: ECU 24, SMU 17 (L)

Texas Tech (-15) v Kansas St: Would it surprise you to know that Texas Tech has the 20th ranked total defense? Mind you, it has been again mostly cupcakes, but it is indicative of the fast, opportunistic defense the Red Raiders have (5th in turnover margin). Many will point to the 9th ranked KSU passing def, but that has been against Marshall, North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. I expect Hodges to pick them apart while the defense forces KSU's freshman QB into numerous mistakes.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 42, Kansas St 14
Actual Score: Texas Tech 59, Kansas St 20 (W)

LSU (-6) v Florida: The Gators are a MASH unit, to say the least. They are starting former QBs and d-backs at receiver these days, and still squeaking by. Not against LSU. The Tigers may struggle against the pass, but Fla has no running game, allowing for an entire night of nickel defense. They may let the Gators get small yardage underneath, but Fla will be lucky to top 350 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, JaMarcus Russell and the LSU running game have both been getting fat lately as the Tigers have been getting used to the new offense. I expect they won't explode against Florida's 8th ranked defense, but they should be good for 28 pts.

Predicted Score: LSU 28, Florida 17
Actual Score: LSU 21, Florida 17 (L)

USC (-12) @ Notre Dame: THE game of the week, and I predict it will hardly be a game. Alot of experts will have you believe that ND will control the clock with the running game, but with a top back averaging 4.6 ypc, they hardly bring an explosive ground game to the table. Meanwhile, USC boasts the top running game as well as the 4th best passing attack. The Irish won't know whether to stay home or double up deep. The Irish may be able to throw the ball, but USC has been bend don't break in the department, and will likely keep the Irish offense off the field with a steady diet of Bush and White.

Predicted Score: USC 45, Notre Dame 28
Actual Score: USC 34, Notre Dame 31 (L)

UAB (-3) @ Marshall: There is one key issue in this game that should scare the Marshall fan, and that is that Marshall has been turnover prone all season, and now match up with a team ranked 5th in the nation in turnover margin. UAB struggled to score in a loss to SMU, but still managed to throw for over 300 yards. They will continue to move the ball against Marshall, and will fix the glitch that is keeping them out of the end zone.

Predicted Score: UAB 31, Marshal 21
Actual Score: Marshall 20, UAB 19 (L)

Florida State (-7) @ Virginia: Last week was, in a word, a debacle The 7th ranked FSU rushing defense struggled as Wake Forest ran for 247 total yards. This game is about how FSU will react. My guess is that against a Cav team missing its top two lineman (injury and suspension) the FSU front 7 will push into the backfield all game. FSU ranks 10th in passing offense, and will likely pass all day, while keeping VA off balance with draws and screens all day.

Predicted Score: Florida State 34, Virginia 14
Actual Score: Virginia 26, Florida St 21 (L)

**C**

Penn State (+3) @ Michigan: Perhaps Im drinking the kool aid, but I just see too many indications that PSU is the better team in this game, road game or not. They bring the 21st rush offense against the 66th rush defense. In addition, Michigan is 49th in total offense, against a team with the 10th ranked rush defense. PSU's LBs are tremendous, and on offense, they have too much speed for the Michigan defense to dig in. I see them continuing to keep teams off balance with the many different looks they provide. I rank this game low because if Chad Henne figures it out, and can get an explosive performance out of his receivers, the Wolverines could score 35, much like NW was good for 29 against PSU. However, this is a game decided by momentum, and Penn State is running downhill in that department. Look for almost nothing out of Mike Hart this weekend.

Predicted Score: PSU 35, Michigan 28
Actual Score: Michigan 27, Penn St 25 (W)

Cal (-16) v. Oregon State: Im not ecstatic about this game, but I do like it. Cal actually lost to UCLA by 1 (save for a cheap late TD - thank you gambling gods), and managed to score 40 points nonetheless. Their offense is cruising, and its high time their defense get back on track. They are strong against the run, and have good cover guys in the secondary. Except for poor special teams play, they probably would have beaten the Bruins in LA. Now they are back home playing against the 115th defense in the nation. Cal has three healthy RBs this week, each averaging 8.7, 6.1, and 11.9 yards per carry. They are explosive at all times, with the personnel to be well rested. When one wears down, they go to a different weapon. Meanwhile, Oregon St is averaging 349 ypg passing, but QB M Moore has only 7 tds vs 7 ints. Hardly enough to make one worry about the passing game.

Predicted Score: Cal 38, Oregon State 21
Actual Score: Oregon State 23, Cal 20 (L)

Tulsa (-7.5) @ Rice: When Tulsa comes into Houston against an option team giving up 195 rypg, I worry a tad. But this is also a Rice team giving up 507 ypg on defense, and 50 pts a week. Tulsa has had big offensive games, and will likely score into the 40s at least this weekend. Their defense may be pushed around by the Rice running game, but once they get up three touchdowns, the Owls will be forced to abandon their strength. Big rout here.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, Rice 21
Actual Score: Tulsa 41, Rice 21 (W)

--HEAVY LEANS--
[Leans will be considered recommendations this week, and will go into the yearly record. I like these games alot, but not enough to rank them above anything else. Email me or leave a comment if you would like further explanation for any of these games, and I will provide it.]

South Florida (+1) @ Pittsburgh - Pitt 31-17 (L)

Wake Forest (+14) @ Boston College - BC 35-30 (W)

Rutgers (+2) @ Syracuse - Rutgers 31-9 (W)

Indiana (+14.5) @ Iowa - Iowa 38-21 (L)

Michigan State (+6.5) @ Ohio State - Ohio St 35-24 (L)

Colorado State (-2) @ BYU - BYU 24-14 (L)

New Mexico (+7) @ Wyoming - NM 27-24 (W)

Washington (+16) @ Oregon - Oregon 45-21 (L)

Baylor (+2.5) v Nebraska - Nebraska 23-14 (L)

Washington State (+5) v UCLA - UCLA 44-41 (W)

Stanford (+4.5) @ Arizona - Stanford 20-16 (W)

October 8, 2005

Last week was another average week, with A-C finishing at 8-9. The D picks were "lean" picks, only designed to get you thinking in one direction or another. They obviously were awful leans, but they were based on no research.

Last Week: 8-9 (.471)

Year to Date: 58-39-3 (.610)


This week, I have done my research, and actually feel good about most picks. Here are your picks for the weekend with spreads based on sportsbook.com, which is where I make my plays . I can say that I will play all picks listed:

**A**

Louisville (-13) v. North Carolina: At home, Louisville is dominating. They had their problems at So Fla, but lost that game due to miscues and special teams play. One of those fluke games that is not very indicative of this team's talent. They are 7th in the nation in offense, going against a UNC secondary giving up 237 yards per game passing. UNC meanwhile will have trouble keeping Elvis Dumerville off of their QB.

Predicted Score: Louisville 45, UNC 21
Actual Score: Louisville 69, UNC 14 (W)

Washington St (-14) v. Stanford: Washington State puts up 340 yard per game passing, going against Stanford's 115th ranked passing defense. What makes that more pathetic is that Stanford has managed to have such a poor passing defense against the likes of Navy and UC Davis. Wazzu has an explosive offense, and should have little trouble keeping a Stanford offense in check, as the Cardinal still have battles at every major position.

Predicted Score: Washington State 42, Stanford 17
Actual Score: Stanford 27, Washington St 24 (L)

Arkansas (-26.5) v. UL-Monroe: ULM can't move the ball, and they have played mostly Sun Belt opponents, managint 327 ypg of offense. Meanwhile, ULM has a 101st ranked rush defense going against Arkansas' 4th ranked rushing offense (278 ypg). This is a must win, and the 'Backs must make a statement.

Predicted Score: Arkansas 48, ULM 14
Actual Score: Arkansas 44, ULM 15 (W)

Navy (-1) . Air Force: Navy has been up and down, and certainly not as dominant as in the past to years. However, AF has demonstrated that they do not have the horses to compete with even average teams. AF's QB is a very good talent, but Navy at home will have the extra juice that only a rivalry can bring. Navy has a strong running game, and will control this game from beginning to end.

Predicted Score: Navy 24, Air Force 20
Actual Score: Navy 27, Air Force 24 (W)

**B**

Boston College (-7) v. Virginia: BC boasts a potent running game led by what may be the best O-line in the nation. After giving up 300 yards to Maryland last week, they should have alot of trouble stopping the Eagles in Boston. The biggest issue is the health of QB Quentin Porter for BC, but VA has bigger injury issues, namely LB Ahmad Brooks.

Predicted Score: Boston College 35, Virginia 20
Actual Score: Boston College 28, Virginia 17 (W)

Maryland (-28) @ Temple: Very simply put, Temple is awful. They have done nothing to lessen the impression that they are one of the worst teams in Div I. They gave up 70 to an inconsistent Bowling Green team last week, and should have trouble with a Terps team that has been running downhill over people lately.

Predicted Score: Maryland 38, Temple 3
Actual Score: Maryland 38, Temple 7 (W)

West Virginia (-4) @ Rutgers: After watching Rutgers dominate Pitt last week, the immediate reaction is to jump on the Scarlet bandwagon. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a very strong West Virginia team. No. 8 in total def, WB is giving up 145 passing ypg. Meanwhile, Rutgers is 109th in passing def, and benefitted from the absolute confusion in the Pitt passing game last year.

Predicted Score: West Virginia 31, Rutgers 17
Actual Score: West Virginia 27, Rutgers 14 (W)

Oklahoma (+14) @ Texas: The diciest game on the board, there is something forbidden about giving two touchdowns in a rivalry game of this level OK had trouble with TCU and UCLA, yes, but as a young team, it takes time to find your groove. Dropping 42 on KSt will go along way towards providing the Sooners with confidence. Take the points and the emotion as long as A Peterson will play, as he is currently probable.

Predicted Score: Texas 31, OK 20
Actual Score: Texas 45, OK 12 (L)

Missouri (-4.5) @ Oklahoma St: This reeks of a trendy pick, since Col just got done smoking Ok St in Stillwater. However, despite their efforts against OK, Missouri has a very good offense, while Ok St has shown nothing by problems moving the football. Ok St is currently 103rd in total offense, and has managed this ineptitude against the likes of Montana State, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State.

Predicted Score: Missouri 27, Ok St 10
Actual Score: Missouri 37, OK St 31 (W)

Texas Tech (-4) @ Nebraska: The Neb defense is solid, having sacked the QB 26 times in the first four games. If Tech can keep the BlackShirts off of Cody Hodges, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gave up 317 yards to Brett Meyers last week. In addition, the Tech defense is likely to be overlooked, but they have the talent to stifle an average Husker offense. This game could be close, so tread lightly.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 27, Nebraska 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 34, Nebraska 31 (L)

**C**

Florida State (-21.5) v. Wake Forest: Some may look at WF's 211 rushing ypg, but of more importance is Florida State's defense allowing only 73 ypg on the ground. WF has become a much better team since Cory Randolph was moved from WR back to QB, but this FSU defense is only giving up 12 points per game, and will likely continue to dominate. The wild card is QB Drew Weatherford. If he struggles, FSU wont cover. If he continues to improve, FSU should win in a walk.

Predicted Score: FSU 35, WF 7
Actual Score: FSU 41, WF 24 (L)

Ohio St (-3.5) @ Penn St: Minnesota may not be a top 5 team, but beating them was a major coup for the Nittany Lions, and they are bound to have a let down. Ohio St is one of the top 3 teams in the nation, regardless of their loss to Texas, and are continuing to get better. After throttling Iowa, they should have the speed and toughness to shut down the PSU defense.

Predicted Score: Ohio St 27, Penn St 10
Actual Score: Penn St 17, Ohio St 10 (L)

UCLA (-1) v. Cal: Alot of public money is pushing this number towards Cal. I originally thought Cal looked like an attractive pick, especially after the problems UCLA had last week. But this is a test Bruins team going against a team who has made their bones against nobodys like Illinois, Arizona, and New Mexico St. The Cal offense and run defense are both very good, but the Bruins have an experienced defense and steadily improving offense. They wont blow out the Bears, but the should win.

Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Cal 28
Actual Score: UCLA 47, Cal 41 (W)

Georgia (+3) @ Tennessee: I have been back and forth on this game, but the recent health problems for Rick Claussen lead me to think Georgia will pull out a squeaker. No teams are evenly matched as these two. Tenn has the 4th best rush defense, but Georgia's strength is a mobile QB and a three headed running attack, which means they can always have a fresh set of legs in the backfield. This will be a dog fight from start to finish.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 21, Georgia 20
Actual Score: Georgia 27, Tennessee 14 (W)

OVER/UNDERS -

Miami/Duke UNDER 43.5: Miami will get a shutout, but they are going against a decent secondary which means they will be running the ball alot. Tyrone Moss will go for 170, and Miami wins 35-0. (L)

Cincy/Pitt UNDER 52: This number is very high considering Pitt struggles with everyone, and Cincy is a young, ineffective offensive team. Who wins is meaningless. (L)

Army/Central Michigan UNDER 52: Army has its moments, but they are not a juggernaut. Both teams run the ball well, and should battle on the ground to a final score somewhere in the mid 40s. (W)

**LEANS**

Wyoming (-6) v TCU: Tye Gunn is doubtful, and Wyoming is rolling, especially at home. (L)

West Michigan (-12) v Ball St: If Temple didn't exist, Ball St would be the worst team in Div I. (L)

Iowa (+5) @ Purdue: The Boilermakers were exposed, and Kirk Ferentz is the kind of coach who takes advantage when he sees weakness. 5 seems like a lot of points for two evenly matched teams, who were grossly overrated at the outset. (W)

Utah (+4.5) @ Col St: CSU has been strong lately, while Utah is very enigmatic. I expect them to put it together this week, albeit on the road. The Rams are a good team, but are they 5 pts better than Utah? Me thinks not. (W)