October 1, 2005

Rough week last week. After a strong first few weeks, last week was a real "back to normal" experience, where I put my faith in some teams that proved to be worse than previously thought. In addition, while some wins came in late fashion, some losses were either unexpected, or last minute. Wisconsin running the ball in with 20 seconds left was a heart breaker, while teams like Marshall (giving Central Florida their first win in years) and Iowa (blown out by Ohio St) demonstrated they will not be quality teams this year, despite what early prognosticators thought.

Last Week: 8-9 (.471)

Year to Date: 50-30-3 (.639)

Hoping to rebound this week, below are this week's picks. Of note from last week, I graded my picks based on how I felt about them. The lesson, as always, is take my A picks as well as my D - gut picks. But always avoid the C level picks, which are always 50-50 at best. A picks went 4-1, D picks went 2-0, while B and C picks went a combined 2-8. Below are picks sorted by rating. As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only:

**A**

Texas (-14.5) @ Missouri: Mizzou has had some decent scoring games, but they are susceptible to a good offense. At home, the thought it they will keep it close, but this is a Texas team that is finding its way. They have had two weeks off, and the defense will be well rested, and will dominate a young Tiger offense.

Predicted Score: Texas 35, Mizzouri 6
Actual Score: Texas 51, Missouri 10 (W)

UCLA (-21.5) v. Washington: The Bruins are back. Historically, they have been strong offensively, but this year, the Bruins are showing some toughness on defense. UW will rely on the arm and legs of QB Isaiah Stanback, but speedy linebackers Spencer Havner and Justin London will eliminate the scrambling threat, allowing Bruins d-backs to shut down the passing game. Look for Maurice Drew and co. to run up a substantial score on the undermanned Huskies.

Predicted Score: UCLA 45, Washington 21
Actual Score: UCLA 21, Wash 17 (L)

Texas Tech (-18) v. Kansas: Alot of people are looking at this as the game where the Raiders are exposed after beating up on cupcakes. However, few recognize that Kansas built its resume on FAU, App St, and La Tech. Tech plays fastbreak football, and will run up a large number on Kansas. Little known is that the Red Raiders have talented defenders, and will hold the mediocre Jayhawks in check at home.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 49, Kansas 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 30, Kansas 16 (L)

Oregon St (-2) v. Washington St: Last week, I dumped all over the Beavers. This week, Mike Riley and I are best friends. The OSU offense is lead by good but inconsistent talent. However, Wash St has been beating up on nobodies, while the Beavs have seen Louisville and ASU up close. The experience will be enough to make OSU a touchdown better than the Cougs.

Predicted Score: Oregon State 27, Washington 17
Actual Score: Oregon State 44, Washington St 33 (W)

**B**

Virginia (-3.5) @ Maryland: Maryland, damn you. I can't read them to save my ass. However, one team I can read is Virginia. Marcus Hagans is coming into his own, and possesses the talent to get this offense going. Maryland is young, and should have trouble against an experienced and talented Virginia defense lead by LBs Ahmad Brooks and Kai Parnam.

Predicted Score: Virginia 27, Maryland 21
Actual Score: Maryland 45, Virginia 33 (L)

Minnesota/Penn State OVER 50: Points, points, and more points. Neither defense can get it done, and both offenses posses more speed than should be legal. The lean is towards the Gophers less the field goal, but the over seems downright obvious.

Predicted Score: Minnesota 38, Penn State 27
Actual Score: Penn St 44, Minn 14 TOT 58 (W)

No Carolina (-3.5) v. Utah: This is a tough one. When QB Brian Johnson is on, Utah looks tough enough to score on anyone. However, UNC is a very young team that is putting it together game by game. They are coming off a touchdown victory over NC St, a team that pressed Va Tech to the very end. Look for a close game much like last week's victory

Predicted Score: UNC 31, Utah 27
Actual Score: UNC 31, Utah 17 (W)

USC (-13.5) @ Arizona State: This line is moving like crazy, and thank god it is. At the opening 16.5, this was a tenuous pick. But thanks to an eager public, the line is under the two touchdown lead the Trojans are likely to finish with. ASU is better than Oregon, but not this much better. Wait for UCLA before taking a dog against this juggernaut.

Predicted Score: USC 56, Arizona St 28
Actual Score: USC 38, ASU 28 (L)

Purdue (-3) v. Notre Dame: Purdue is as inconsistent as they come, barely beating Arizona, then going to OT vs. Minnesota. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been very strong, although they only managed 36 pts against an undermanned Husky squad. Look for a very upset Purdue squad to exploit the overrated ND defense, and shut down Darius Walker. This may even become a blow out.

Predicted Score: Purdue 35, Notre Dame 21
Actual Score: Notre Dame 49, Purdue 28 (L)

Memphis (+3.5) v. UTEP: What have the Miners done to earn this? Memphis has been sloppy, but too much is being made of their 10-7 loss to Mississippi, and not enough being made of their next two games when they cleared 30 pts. UTEP has been sloppy, and will have severe troubles on the road. Jordan Palmer is a scatter arm, while RB Tyler Ebell is extremely fumble prone. Look for RB DeAngelo Williams to go for 220 and three tds.

Predicted Score: Memphis 34, UTEP, 28
Actual Score: Memphis 27, UTEP 20 (W)

Va Tech (-11) @ West Virginia: How good is WV? I submit that they are not nearly as good as they were at Maryland. Meanwhile, VT is not only as good as advertised, but better. Marcus Vick improves every game, and if the two headed monster of Humes and Imoh can get just a fraction more running room, they will destroy the Mountaineers.

Predicted Score: VT 28, West Virginia 10
Actual Score: VT 34, WV 17 (W)

**C**

Wisconsin (-17.5) v Indiana: Tough call here. The Badgers have had big scoring games, and other matches where they have struggled. However, against the Hoosiers, they should be able to run and pass at will, while Indy will struggle to move the ball at all.

Predicted Score: Wisc 38, Indiana 13
Actual Score: Wisc 41, Indiana 14 (L)

Oklahoma St (+3.5) v. Colorado: The Buffs are not back, which isnt to say that Ok State is. This is a home game between equally matched teams, talent wise. If the Cowboy offense can preform up to their abilities, they should win this outright.

Predicted Score: Colorado 21, Ok St 20
Actual Score: Col 27, Ok St 0 (L)

Clemson (-7) @ Wake Forest: If it is one thing we have learned this year, it is that Wake is not very good. Even at home, I doubt they will be able to stop Charlie Whitehurst and co. Coming off a disappointing home loss to BC, look for the Tigers to rebound against a very weak Wake Forest team, who has shown no ability to run the ball, throw the ball, or stop either.

Predicted Score: Clemson 31, Wake Forest 17
Actual Score: WF 31, Clemson 27 (L)

Nebraska (-3.5) v. Iowa St: Call it a hunch, but it appears that ISU is not nearly as good as they seemed, especially since Iowa, their highest profile victim, has shown they are not nearly as good as expected. The Huskers are getting a hold of their offense, and the defense is improving by each game.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 24, Iowa State 20
Actual Score: Neb 27, ISU 20 (W)

Oklahoma (-6.5) v. Kansas State: This game shoud really be ranked higher for me. OK will finally get untracked after an uncharacteristic blow out loss in Pasadena. K St has built a strong record against nobodies, while OK has had an extra week to get Rhett Bomar in sync with the offense. Look for A Pete to go for 190.

Predicted Score: OK 35, K St 14
Actual Score: OK 43, K St 21 (W)

BYU (-1.5) @ San Diego St: John Beck appears to have the BYU offense clicking, despite their recent loss to TCU. The Cougs still dropped 50, and will look to do similarly in San Diego. The Aztecs are a decent bunch, coming off a nice performance against San Jose St, but the small line means a close game. Im not sure the Tecs have the experience to win a close game right now.

Predicted Score: BYU 35, SD St, 31
Actual Score: SD St 31, BYU 10 (L)

**D** [No explanations. These are mostly leans...]

Florida (-3.5) @ Alabama (L)
Michigan State (-5.5) v. Michigan [this game makes me nervous] (L)
Wyoming/UNLV under 51.5 (L)
Temple (+28.5) @ Bowling Green (L)
East Carolina (+7) v. Southern Miss (L)
Louisville (-38) v. Florida Atlantic (W)
Arkansas St (-3) @ UL Monroe [best bet in this group] (L)

Games of September 24th, 2005

Good to date, but we have only had three weeks to go by. Week four should be the first true litmus test, as the odds makers have caught on to who is good, and who isn't. Never again will we get 6.5 for a Michigan State at Notre Dame, so finding value is becoming more and more difficult. As the lines shrink, taking alot of chalk no longer seems like such a bad idea. Here are this week's thoughts. The letter in parentheses represents the value on the game for betting purposes. A is a good bet, while a D is only a lean, and wagers should be smaller. In addition, I am now adding a predicted score:

Iowa (+7) @ Ohio State (B): This line is too high, because Iowa struggled with Iowa State, but that game was a rivalry game, and Drew Tate got hurt during the game. Ohio St is more talented, but Iowa is better coached. Also, OSU lost to Texas because Texas had better QB play, a problem that will keep this game close as well. Look for the Iowa linebackers to bottle up the Buckeye running game.

Predicted Score: Ohio St 23, Iowa 17
Actual Score: Ohio St 31, Iowa 6 [L]

Va Tech (-11) v. Georgia Tech (A): Va Tech is so much better than people think. Marcus Vick is overrated, but is good enough to keep this offense afloat. The defense will bottle up PJ Daniels, and force the injured Reggie Ball to beat them.

Predicted Score: VT 28, GT 14
Actual Score: Va Tech 51, Ga Tech 7 [W]

Penn St/Northwestern UNDER 50.5 (C): The Wildcats showed that they could only muster 21 pts against a decent Arizona St defense. The Penn St defense is much better, while their offense probably topped out for the season at 40 pts last week. Look for a 31-17 victory for the Nittany Lions.

Predicted Score: Penn State 31, NW 17
Actual Score: Penn State 34, NW 29 - Total Pts 63 [L]

Mich St (-10.5) @ Illinois (C): Many are saying the Illini are much improved, but based on what? Home wins against Rutgers (by 3) and San Jose St? They were beaten by 15 by a Cal team missing its best player, and the Spartans will stomp on the Illini, regardless of the locale.

Predicted Score: MSU 38, Illinois 21
Actual Score: MSU 61, Ill 14 [W]

Clemson (-2.5) v. Boston College (C): The Florida St game told us two things: The BC offense is better than we thought, and the BC defense is worse than we thought. Clemson has been explosive, dropping 30 on a fantastic Miami defense last week. BC will score plenty, but not enough. 35-30 seems reasonable.

Predicted Score: Clemson 35, BC 30
Actual Score: BC 23, Clemson 20 [L]

Wake Forest (-2) v. Maryland (A): The bottom line is that Maryland is not very good. I totally overrated them last week, and learned my lesson. Wake will run the ball down Maryland's throat, and their home field advantage should be enough to constitute a 3 point victory.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27, Maryland 20
Actual Score: Maryland 22, Wake Forest 12 [L]

Ohio (-4) v. Kent St (C): Ohio beat Pitt, but that win is slowly looking less valuable. Kent has struggled on the road, and Ohio's defense should step up this week.

Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Kent 10
Actual Score: Ohio 35, Kent 32 [L]

TCU (+3.5) @ BYU (D): Not too confident in this pick. TCU's loss at SMU makes me skeptical, but they seemed to have gotten back on track last week. BYU has had trouble scoring, and the TCU defense should make sure that continues.

Predicted Score: TCU 17, BYU 14
Actual Score: TCU 51, BYU 50 [W]

Alabama (-15) v. Arkansas (B): I was wrong about Alabama as well, as they really took it to So Carolina. They had better athletes, and Brodie Croyle finally looked more consistent. If he can maintain his level of composure, they will destroy a young Arkansas team that should be emotionally drained coming off destruction at the hands of USC.

Predicted Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 14
Actual Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 13 [L]

Notre Dame/Washington UNDER 54 (A): There is no legitimate reason for this over/under to be so high. Wash has had some big scoring games, but against considerably poor competition. Against more talented teams, like Cal, they have struggled. Notre Dame scored 41 points last week, but in desperation. Look for the Irish to jump ahead, then lean on the running game.

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 34, Washington 7
Actual Score: Notre Dame 36, Washington 17 - Total Pts 53 [W]

Miami-FL (-14) v. Colorado (B): Miami put on a display of the real Hurricans against Clemson last week, scoring 36 points on the road. Colorado has done a great job rebuilding, but they are still considerably outclassed by this Miami team. The defense should bottle up Joe Klatt, and Tyrone Moss and co. should run for days.

Predicted Score: Miami 35, Colorado 9
Actual Score: Miami 23, Colorado 3 [W]

USC (-21) @ Oregon (D): I'd love to take Oregon and the points, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even on the road, against an improved Duck team, I don't see USC letting up one bit. Too many weapons means alot of points. Oregon gave up 21 to Houston, then 27 to Fresno. They might surrender 40+ to the Trojans ,who will solve Kellen Clemmons, leaving the Ducks with a limited offense.

Predicted Score: USC 42, Oregon 14
Actual Score: USC 45, Oregon 13 [W]

Marshall (-3.5) @ Central Florida (C): Marshall is Marshall. They always have a decent offense, and a good mid-major squad. This year is no different. They won't be as dominant as years past, but they can win the games they should, which includes this game at the Golden Knights, who struggled with a decent So Florida team last week, but were still beaten by 17.

Predicted Score: Marshall 28, C Fla 24
Actual Score: CFU 23, Marshall 13 [L]

Tulsa (-1.5) v. Memphis (A+): Roll on Golden Hurricane. After destroying No Texas last week, they should lay the wood to an average Memphis team, regardless of the presence of their All American running back. Look for the Tulsa offense to roll up a good amount of points, while the defense keeps with the bend don't break philosophy.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 31, Memphis 28
Actual Score: Tulsa 37, Memphis 31 [W]

Michigan (-2.5) @ Wisconsin (C): Last week, the Wolverines got back to normal, and dropped a 55-0 on poor Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Wisconsin took a step back and struggled to score 14 points against North Carolina. Wisc has shown they are weak against the pass, and Chad Henne should take advantage of them. This wil not be a blow out, but Michigan has many more weapons, and should win somewhat comfortably.

Predicted Score: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Actual Score: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20 [L]

SMU (+3.5) v. Tulane (C): Tulane stinks, and SMU beat TCU at home the week after TCU beat Oklahoma. Call it a hunch.

Predicted Score: SMU 24, Tulane 20
Actual Score: Tulane 31, SMU 10 [L]

Arizona State (-7) @ Oregon State (A): ASU is a very good team, who will be the Trojans' toughest competition in the Pac 10 along with UCLA. Their defense is underrated, and their offense has shown the ability to run the ball alot better than expected. Yes, it is a road game, but Oregon State can't stop anyone. They will get their points, but will simply be outscored.

Predicted Score: Arizona St 42, Oregon St 27
Actual Score: ASU 42, OSU 24 [W]

September 17th, 2005

Here are the picks for this week. Since it is still early, I will choose as many games as possible, with a short explanation. Next week, we may start the star pick system again. Last weekend was good, and only Ohio St kept me from a very successful weekend. Will I be fooled by Pitt again? Don't count on it....

Maryland (-3) v. West Virginia: Maryland is coming off a tight loss to Clemson, a team proving to be better than previously thought. WV is a lot less talented than in years past, though Rich Rodriguez is still a quality coach who will keep this close. Friedgen is a better coach, and the Maryland running game, and the defense (led by AA LB DQuell Jackson) will hold WV under 21.

WEST VIRGINIA 31, MARYLAND 19 (L)

Vanderbilt (-3) v. Mississippi: Jay Cutler may be the best QB in the SEC. Look for him to lead Vandy to another win against a good Ole Miss defense. Miss only managed 10 pts against a terrible Memphis defense.

VANDERBILT 30, OLE MISS 23 (W)

Boston College (+1.5) v. Florida St: BC defense is good enough to keep this game close. Home field advantage should be the deciding factor. Under 37 may be the better play.
[NOTE: I changed this pick to Florida St before kickoff]

FLORIDA ST 28, BOSTON COLLEGE 17 (W)
45 TOTAL POINTS (L)

Mich St (+6) @ Notre Dame: Drew Stanton is a better QB than Chad Henne, and will provide more of a challenge for the ND defense. Look for Mich St to stay close with a balanced attack. Way too many points to give a team that won in its last trip to South Bend.

MICH ST 44, NOTRE DAME 41 [OT] (W)

UCLA (-6.5) v. Oklahoma: Oklahoma is terrible, and UCLA will expose their problems on defense. The only issue will be stopping AD (All Day Adrian Peterson). Over 51.5 is a better play.

UCLA 41, OKLAHOMA 24 (W)
65 TOTAL POINTS (W)


Nebraska (-9.5) v. Pitt: Pitt sucks. I will not fall for them again. Nebraska at home should be enough.

NEBRASKA 7, PITTSBURGH 6 (L)

So Carolina (+1.5) v. Alabama: The gamecocks are a good defensive team, with offensive potential. The old ball coach should start figuring it out as an overrated Bama team comes into town.

ALABAMA 37, SO CAR 14 (L)

Cal (-21) v. Illinois: Illinois is horrible, and J Ayoob demonstrated last week that he has what it takes to run the Tedford offense. Marshawn Lynch looks better than JJ Arrington, and should go for 220 against the Illini.
[NOTE: Marshawn Lynch was declared out for this game before kick off, and I took it off the board]

NP

Wisconsin (-3.5) @ No Carolina: No Carolina played over their head against G Tech, and the Wisc running game looks like it is for real. Disregard the road game, and take the Big Ten here.

WISCONIN 14, UNC 5 (W)

Fresno St (+2.5) @ Oregon: Look for FSU to get physical with the Ducks, and win this game by a field goal. Beware the injury to DT McIntyre, as well as Oregon's superior team speed. Bet small.
[NOTE: Got 3 points or this game.]

OREGON 37, FRESNO 34 (P)

Tennessee (+6) @ Florida: Regardless of where this game is played, 6 points is too much for either team. Disregard the matchup, and take the points based solely on the fact this game will be tighter than that.

FLORIDA 16, TENN 7 (L)

Arizona (+7) v. Purdue: At home, Arizona will be to tough to blow out. Mike Stoops is building a strong team, with a great defense and a solid running game. Purdue is not nearly as talented as the "experts" say

PURDUE 31, ARIZONA 24 (P)

Arizona St (-14.5) v. Northwestern: NW plays great at home, and beat No Ill by 1 last week at home, indicating they arent as strong as in the past. On the road, against a superior offense, and underrated defense, the Cats will struggle. Their RB is a true freshman who will struggle on the road.

ARIZONA ST 52, NORTHWESTERN 21 (W)

Minnesota (-31) v. Florida Atlantic: The Gopher offense is dominant at the start of the season, traditionally, and FAU doesn't have nearly the talent to keep Minn from scoring at least 50 pts. The defense has improved dramatically, and should keep FAU under 10. A definite blow out.

MINNESOTA 46, FAU 7 (W)

Late Additions:

Mississippi St (-3) v. Tulane MSU 21, TULANE 14 (W)
New Mexico (-22) v. New Mexico St NM 38, NMSU 21 (L)
So Florida (-7) v. Cent Florida SO FLA 31, C FLA 14 (W)
Kentucky/Indiana O/51 INDIANA 38, KENT 14 TOTAL 52 (W)
Tulsa (+3.5) @ No Texas TULSA 54 , NTU 2 (W)
Louisville (-14.5) v. Oregon St L'VILLE 63, OSU 27 (W)
Michigan (-29) v. E Mich MICH 55, E MICH 0 (W)

WEEK 3: 14-7-2 (.696)

YEAR TO DATE: 42-21-3 (.682)

Glorious Return

Well, Worm is back with his college football picks. Since no one reads this, Im not to concerned with the feedback. But if you stumble upon this site, I can guarentee that these picks are well thought out, consistent winners a majority of the time. Not all picks can be guarentees, and sometimes, the guarentees suck and the one star picks come through regularly. Look at last year's percentages, and the early returns when using this analysis.

I havent posted for the first two weeks, but based on my own personal wagers, here are my picks for the first two weeks, and a summary of performance:

WEEK 1

September 1-3, 2005

Ohio State (-15) vs Miami (OH) FINAL - Ohio St 34, Miami 14 W
Miami (FL) (-3) @ Florida St FINAL - FSU 10, Miami 7 L
Illinois (+110) v. Rutgers FINAL - Illinois 33, Rutgers 30 W
Mich St (-19.5) v. Kent FINAL - Mich St 49, Kent 14 W
Notre Dame/Pitt OVER 52.5 FINAL - ND 42, Pitt 21 W
Miss/Memphis UNDER 50 FINAL - Miss 10, Memphis 6 W
Va Tech (-3.5) @ NC St FINAL - Va Tech 20, NC St 16 W
UCLA (-9.5) @ SD St FINAL - UCLA 44, SD St 21 W
Boston Coll (-2.5) @ BYU FINAL - BC 20, BYU 3 W
Bowl. Grn (+115) @ Wisc FINAL - Wisconsin 56, BG 42 L
Arizona (+7.5) @ Utah FINAL - Utah 27, Arizona 24 W
USC (-34.5) @ Hawaii FINAL - USC 63, Hawaii 17 W
Tex A&M (-2) @ Clemson FINAL - Clemson 25, Tex A&M 24 L
Michigan (-19) v. No Ill FINAL - Michigan 33, No Ill 17 L
L'ville (-22) @ Kentucky FINAL - L'ville 31, Kent 24 L
Boise St (+7.5) @ Georgia FINAL - Georgia 48, Boise St 13 L
Wyoming (+23) @ Florida FINAL - Florida 32, Wyoming 14 W
Virginia (-34) v. W Mich FINAL - Virginia 31, W Mich 19 L
TCU (+26.5) @ Oklahoma FINAL - TCU 17, Ok 10 W
Ga Tech (+7) @ Auburn FINAL - Ga Tech 23, Auburn 14 W

WEEK RECORD: 13-7 (.650)

WEEK 2

September 9-10, 2005

Wash St (-9) @ Nevada FINAL - Wash St 55, Nevada 21 W
Pitt (-14.5) v. Ohio Ohio 16, Pitt 10 L
Notre Dame (+7) @ Michigan ND 17, Mich 10 W
Clemson (+105) @ Maryland Clemson 28, Maryland 24 W
Navy (+3) v. Stanford Stanford 41, Navy 38 P
Northwestern (-2.5) v No Ill NW 38, No Ill 37 L
Alabama (-12) @ So Miss Alabama 30, So Miss 21 L
Ga Tech (-12.5) v. No Carolina Ga Tech 27, UNC 21 L
Va Tech (-20.5) @ Duke Va Tech 45, Duke 0 W
Wyoming (-21) v. UL Monroe Wyoming 38, UL Monroe 0 W
Toledo (-22.5) v. W Mich Toledo 56, W Mich 23 W
No Texas (+4) @ Mid Tenn St No Texas 14, MTSU 7 W
LSU (+1.5) @ Arizona St LSU 35, ASU 31 W
Iowa (-9.5) @ Iowa St Iowa St 23, Iowa 3 L
Mich St (-31) v. Hawaii Mich St 42, Hawaii 14 L
Boston College (-27.5) v Army BC 44, Army 7 W
Minnesota (-13) v. Colorado St Minn 56, CSU 24 W
Boise St (+3.5) @ Oregon St Oregon St 30, BSU 27 W
Nebraska (-6.5) v. Wake Forest Nebraska 31, WF 3 W
New Mexico (+11) @ Missouri NM 45, Missouri 35 W
LSU/ASU UNDER 52 LSU 35, ASU 31 L
Ohio St (-1) v Texas Texas 25, Ohio St 22 L
So Carolina (+18) @ Georgia Georgia 17, USC 15 W
So Car/Georgia OVER 47.5 Georgia 17, USC 15 L
TCU (-13.5) @ SMU SMU 21, TCU 10 L
UCLA (-24.5) v. Rice UCLA 63, Rice 21 W

WEEK 2 RECORD: 15-7-1 (.696)

RECORD TO DATE: 28-14-1 (.674)