September 16, 2006

Last Week: 5-8

Total Record: 13-13-1

Rough week, and made all the more rough by the fact that I came up. Unfortunately, I can only provide picks ahead of time. You must contact me for real time thoughts. This week, that would ahve worked out, as I made a lot of money on Notre Dame second half, Ohio State second half, and a Rice/Oregon parlay. Throw in big money on Pitt and then West Virginia last night, and there was a winning week that went under the radar. With that said, this week's picks!

*****A*****

Texas (-33) v. Rice: Texas is of course coming off of a major loss, and will be anxious to prove that they belong amongst the elite. They can run the ball effectively, and have a stingy defense that will be working with two weeks of game film to better understand the new spread offense that has been installed at Rice. Colt McCoy will be on a tighter leash as the Longhorns will run often, and both Sedrick Irvin and Jamaal Charles should top the century mark. Look for key second half turnovers to make this a laugher.

Predicted Score: Texas 51, Rice 3

Actual Score:

Texas Tech (-1.5) @ TCU: Amazingly, and I can attest to this as a Dallas denizen, this is the premier matchup in the Southwest this week. Texas Tech is anxious to show that they are for real, and TCU is looking for respect. However, as both Robert Merrill and Lonta Hobbs are, well, hobbled, TCU's running game has stalled. If Texas Tech can zero in on the underrated Jeff Ballard and control the TCU passing game, their own explosive attack should give them a sizeable advantage.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 35, TCU 21

Actual Score:

Hawaii (-12) v UNLV: Traveling to Hawaii is always a problem, and it should be more so for a team with limited resources like UNLV. Quarterback Colt Brennan is the best passer you have never heard of. He should go for 400 and 4 scores and the Warriors roll.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 42, UNLV 17

Actual Score:


****B****

Boise St (-7.5) @ Wyoming: I am usually a victim of falling in love with a team based on their previous week's performance. This time, I believe I am warranted. Granted, Wyoming played tough in a hostile environment in Virginia, but that is a below average Cavalier team. Boise throttled a similar Oregon State team, and despite the fact it was accomplished on the Smurf Turf, I see no reason RB Ian Johnson won't see similar running lanes against the Cowboys. Wyoming will come out pumped early, but if they bring up their safeties to stop the run game, QB Jared Zabransky will make them pay.

Predicted Score: Boise St 35, Wyoming 24

Actual Score:

Miami (+4) @ Louisville: Hi, Im Louisville, and I am your trendy BCS pick. Forget it. Many will declare the Cardinals' running game fit after dropping 320 and 7 scores on Temple, but not so fast my friend. This is Miami we are talking about, and they are to defense what G Dubya is to malapropisms. They can't hold the Ville down completely, but they should be able to play enough defense to make this game a close one. Look for Kyle Wright to find more room to throw the ball and show off his improved passing skills. Upset city, baby.

Predicted Score: Miami 23, Louisville 20

Actual Score:

Nevada (-2) v. Colorado State: They had a tough time getting untracked last week, but the Pack should have no problems at home against an average Col St squad. This should be a fairly close game, but in even matchups, home field is worth three, making -2 a gift.

Predicted Score: Nevada 34, Col State 28

Actual Score:

***C***

Iowa St (+13) @ Iowa: Really an obvious pick, which makes it a potentially bad one. Will Drew Tate be back? Yes. But his top wideout, Charles Davis is out for the year. I love RB Albert Young, and the Iowa defense is always amongst the best. However, this is an Iowa State team with a good offense, a track record of hanging with the Hawkeyes, and too many points under its belt to ignore. They prob wont win this game, but there is little change they lose by two touchdowns.

Predicted Score: Iowa 31, Iowa State 21

Actual Score:

Florida (-3.5) @ Tennessee: Tennessee, you fickle creature. My current girlfriend doesn't have me this vexed, and I couldn't tell you her next move if she submitted it in writing. After crushing a very talented Cal squad, they laid the proverbial egg against Air Force. How I missed that obvious let down/look ahead game is beyond me. The bottom line is that Urban Meyer is a great offensive coach, and QB Chris Leak appears to get his offense. If they can continue to operate as efficiently as they have so far, they should out score Tennessee considerably, while a very good defense, lead by LB Brandon Siler helps QB Erik Ainge revert to his old ways. Pressure, pressure, and more pressure should help Florida swing momentum in their favor. And they will not be influenced by the Neyland Stadium faithful.

Predicted Score: Florida 28, Tennessee 21

Actual Score:

Auburn (-3.5) v. LSU: Looks even on paper, doesn't it? But Auburn does all the things it takes to beat LSU. This is as good, if not better, a team as the undefeated squad that was denied a shot at the national title. Kenny Irons went for 22o on the ground last year in this matchup, and this time, they are at home. Auburn's big receivers should make the tough catches to make Brandon Cox look good, while the Auburn defense, coming off of a shutout, should hold the limited LSU running game in check.

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, LSU 14

Actual Score:


**D**

Ohio St (-29) v Cincy:

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Actual Score:

Michigan (+6) @ Notre Dame:

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Actual Score:

Nebraska (+17.5) @ USC:

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Syracuse (+3) @ Illinois:

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September 9th, 2006

Decent opening week. 8-5-1. Huge mistake on Cal, just didnt realize that Cutcliff would make that big a difference. And Tenn exposed Cal as a team that may not be as fast as people thought. Tenn brough Olympic speed to the field and ran around Cal all day. Add in the 100K people that I forgot to factor in, and well, you get a major blunder. Also did you all wrong by not making Indiana my lock of the week, as they were that by game time. They will be the team to follow again this week. On to the picks:

*****A*****

Missouri/Mississippi OVER 47: I can hear readers out there saying it already..."Huh?" Mississippi, even with a defensive minded coach, boasts two excellent transfers on offense (QB Brent Shaeffer from Tenn and former Hoosier BenJarvus Green-Ellis at RB) that should be able to put up 20+ pts on the Mizzou D. The key is Missouri's excellent offense and the improved play of QB Chase Daniels. At home, they should run up a cool 35 against a defense that gave up 25 to a subpar Memphis squad, and the two should combine for at least 50. Miss (-8) wasn't the worst play, but that number has since moved to (-10)

Predicted Score: Missouri 35, Mississippi 27

Actual Score: Missouri 34, Mississippi 7 [L]

Indiana (-3.5) @ Ball St: Im not looking past Ball State, I just think that people are not respecting the improved Indiana offense, and the early lines are soft. This game should be at least (-7.5) and it would be a sin not to play it. The Hoosier passing game is very good, and WR James Hardy is a Marcus Robinson-type who should dominate the Ball State secondary. For a MAC team, but the Cardinals will struggle with Big Ten calibur talent like most of their fellow league members.

Predicted Score: Indiana 30, Ball State 21

Actual Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23 [L]

Georgia (-3) @ South Carolina: I really think that this line is so low because of how tough So Car played them last year. I just don't see it happening again. Mark Richt is an excellent coach, as can be seen by what happened to the Fla St offense after his departure. He boasts a very strong three headed running game that should dominate a defense that looked soft against a freshman running back for Miss State. QB Joe Tershansky is shaky, but his freshman backup just may come in and make some noise. QB Blake Mitchell is hobbled for So Carolina, who should have a hard time moving the ball against a defense that is athletically superior.

Predicted Score: Georgia 24, South Carolina 10

Actual Score: Georgia 18, South Carolina 0 [W]

Oregon (-3) @ Fresno State: My favorite game. After making a mint on Nevada to cover at Fresno, I love the Ducks to run ramshod over an overrated Bulldog squad. Despite a strong defense and a very good running game, the new Fresno QB is worse than below average, and will have trouble finding space against a good Oregon secondary. The key will be the improved play of QB David Dixon for the Ducks (70% completions against Stanford) and the monster running game led by RB James Stewart. Hammer this game....

Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Fresno State 17

Actual Score: Oregon 31, Fresno State 24 [W]

****B****

Auburn (-20.5) @ Miss State: Some will think this is too much to give on the road. I love the Auburn offense, and I see no indication that new QB Tray Rutledge can get the Bulldogs past midfield against the superior Tiger defense. After a 6-15 effort against South Carolina, I find it hard to believe MSU will complete even a single pass. Look for Auburn to dominate this game, and move the ball however they want.

Predicted Score: Auburn 42, Miss State 3

Actual Score: Auburn 34, Miss State 0 [W]

***C***

Illinois/Rutgers OVER 50: Call it a hunch. Two good offenses, two bad defenses. The Ron Zook recruits are starting to play, and the young passing game should be able to put some late points up for the cheap cover.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 38, Illinois 24

Actual Score: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0 [L]

Tennesse (-20) v Air Force: Fine, Im a believer. David Cutcliff was the missing ingredient. Tenn has great talent, but couldnt get together on offense. If Erik Ainge is going to be consistent, they should trounce mid level teams consistently. Air Force will be nervous in Neyland Stadium, where it is doubtful their running game can do better than Cal's, which boasted prehaps the nation's best runner.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 42, Air Force 14

Actual Score: Tennessee 31, Air Force 30 [L]


**D**

Clemson (-2.5) @ BC: After last week, I refuse to trust BC. Clemson has a very good team, and if Will Proctor plays smart, they should cover this game. BC could win outright, but the Clemson defense should be the difference.

Predicted Score: Clemson 31, BC 23

Actual Score: BC 32, Clemson 31 [L]

Penn State (+7.5) @ Notre Dame: Should really buy this up to the original 8.5. This pick has nothing to do with ND's performance at G Tech, and has everything to do with Penn State being completely underrated. Great defense, pursuing line backers, and superior speed on offense should keep them in this game. If QB Anthony Morelli can play to his abilities (and I think he will) they might even pull the upset.

Predicted Score: Penn State 31, Notre Dame 30

Actual Score: Notred Dame 42, Penn State 17 [L]

Minnesota (+8) @ Cal: I believe. Watch as the Gopher front line pushes the overmatched Cal defensive line around. A three headed monster at running back should keep the Bears occupied while QB Bryan Cupito finds his rhythm, throwing to big receivers matched up against small corners. Cal will score at will, but the Gophers may pull an upset in this track meet.

Predicted Score: Cal 44, Minnesota 38

Actual Score: Cal 42, Minnesota 17 [L]

Ohio State (+2) @ Texas: Id love to go on and on as to why I like this game, but I can't think of exactly why. Everything says Texas to me, but in the end, the difference between Troy Smith and Colt McCoy should dictate the score. Despite 9 new starters on defense, the Buckeyes should be competitive. Meanwhile, there is just too much speed on Ohio State's side of the ball to allow the Texas defense to control the game. Look for freshman RB Chris Wells to make a difference for Ohio State, while WR Limas Sweed may be enough to save Colt McCoy from a horrible game. Throwing against No Texas is one thing....he should struggle here as the pressure from the home crowd mounts.

Predicted Score: Ohio State 28, Texas 21

Actual Score: Ohio State 24, Texas 7 [W]

*LEAN*

No Ill (-16) v Ohio: At home, with Garrett Wolfe at RB, and I see the Huskies controlling this matchup against a below average Ohio squad.

Predicted Score: No Ill 35, Ohio 16
[L]

Actual Score:

Michigan State (-25.5) v Eastern Michigan: They are due to cover one of these. This should be the week. Paging Drew Stanton.....

Predicted Score: Mich State 50, East Mich 7
[W]

Actual Score: