Monday, September 27, 2004

Update: Sept 27

Current Record Update. Good week last week. Couple really bad picks, but overall, betting my picks would have made for good money....


LOCK OF THE WEEK: Last Week: 1-0 Overall: 1-0

FIVE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 6-3

FOUR STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 7-3

THREE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-0 Overall: 4-5

TWO STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1-1 Overall: 7-3-1

ONE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 1-0 Overall: 2-2


OVERALL: Last Week: 9-3-1 Overall: 26-16-1

Friday, September 24, 2004

September 25, 2004; Vol I

Not much time to post tonight, but I want to make sure my picks get in before games start. I dont have any picks for Friday night, though I like No Ill (NOTE: NO ILL 34, BG 17) and am not so sure that Boise will cover against BYU (decent defense). (NOTE: BOISE 28, BYU 27)

Current record:

Five Star Picks: 4-2
Four Star Picks: 5-2
Three Star Picks: 2-5
Two Star Picks: 5-2
One Star Picks: 1-2

Overall: 17-13

Not bad for two weeks without really having any good information. Basically, this says that if I give you a high star game, its a winner. Three stars mean I can go either way, so avoid it. I like a game there, but have reservations. Apparently, my reservations have been correct. Note that one star picks are throw away, total caution into the wind picks. The key picks are the two stars. They are gut picks, where one team shows me something, and the trend is not in their favor, and I am going against it. 5-2 means my guy is often right. On to the picks:

***** 5 Star Picks

Notre Dame (-11.5) v. Washington: UW is just not good. A blow out for ND means by 14, but it should be enough here. Look for a 24-10 game, with ND displaying a more disciplined running game, and a more stout defense. (ND 38, WAS 13)

Virginia (-25.5) v. Syracuse: The Cuse put 37 on Buffalo. Big deal. They struggled to beat Cincy, and were dogs in that game. Purdue shut them out, and Virginia's defense is light years ahead of Purdue. At home, Marcus Hagan gets rolling, and Chris Canty and the boys hand another donut on the inept Cuse offense. (VIRGINIA 31, SYRACUSE 10)

Wisconsin (-2.5) v. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I have no idea why this game is so close. PSU has an exceptional offense, but were dismantled by BC. Wisc has won ugly, but they are impossible to beat at Camp Randall. This may be one ugly game, but Booker Stanley is more than enough at RB to make this a 3 point win.
(WISCONSIN 16, PENN STATE 3)

**** 4 Star Games

Kansas (+6.5) v. Texas Tech: Mike Mangino has a different team in Kansas than they have seen in the past. Ignore the 70 Tech hung on a TCU team that gave up 45 to Northwestern. Kansas plays strong defense, and should hang within the number at home. (TEX TECH 31, KANSAS 30)

Arkansas (-5.5) v. Alabama: Everyone likes the 3-0 Tide to compete, but without QB Brodie Croyle they will be lose. Ark took Tex to the wire, and QB Matt Jones is as good a running/passing QB there is in the nation. Very Major Harris-like. (ARK 27, ALABAMA 10)

Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Ball State: I know nothing here, other than WM has been very competitive, and Ball State stinks. Total gut feeling based on performance. (BALL ST 41, W MICH 14)

*** 3 Star Games

Wake Forest (+1.5) v. Boston College: This game opened with Wake a 2 point favorite, and I liked it then. I dont know where all the BC love is coming from, but Wake has proven to be better than advertised. RB Chris Barclay is for real, and should be enough to keep Wake in the game. The home field advantage is worth three points at least, and Pistol Paul goes down to the Deacons. (WF 17, BC 14)

Rice (+32.5) @ Texas: Traditionally, teams have a tough time preparing for the wish bone that Rice uses, but Texas has had two weeks, so they might blow the Owls out. Rice comes in with the best rushing defense in the nation, and Tex the best rushing offense in the nation. If the run-happy Owls can grind clock against the Horns, they should be able to keep the opposing offense off the field long enough to remain within the number. (TEXAS 35, RICE 13)

** 2 Star Picks:

Iowa (+13) @ Michigan: Something about this game stinks. Both are coming off subpar performances, but Iowa was horrible. Their defense and their offense were terrible. However, they are better defensively then they showed, and Michigan is hardly Arizona State. Iowa traditionally plays Michigan well, and I would take a Kirk Ferenz coached team over LLoyd Carr any day. Michigan just has better talent here, but they are not better prepared. (MICHIGAN 30, IOWA 17)

Air Force (+22) @ Utah: Utah is great, no doubt. But this is another case of the wishbone being tough to prepare for. The Utes should own the Falcons, but perhaps not enough to stay within 22. AF surprised UNLV at home last week, and should be playing with the confidence that they are a better team than they showed in week 1. (UTAH 49, AIR FORCE 35)

South Carolina (-14.5) v. Troy State: Troy was a darling pick until crapping on themselves last week. The win over Missouri has lost its luster, and after playing Georgia to a stalemate, the Gamecocks are showing to be better than a middle of the pack SEC team. They should win this game by 3 scores easily.
(SO CAR 17, TROY 7)

New Mexico (-6) @ New Mexico State: NMSt is a bad team, and has played some close games over their head. NM has shown to be a contender in the conference, and should demonstrate better athletes over the Aggies. (NEW MEXICO 38, NMST 13)

* 1 Freaking Star Games

Stanford (+21.5) v. USC: Just crazy talk. But when an offense is averaging 40+ ppg, you believe. Trent Edwards is a legitimate passer who doesnt get picked often. USC will score alot of points here, but Im not so sure the defense can keep the Teevens offense out of the end zone less than three times. A late score could decide this spread. (USC 31, STANFORD 28)

Friday, September 17, 2004

Games of Sept 18th, 2004: College Picks

Id love to break down where I went wrong in Week 1, but no time, really. I will say that a lack of internet service last week kept me from letting you all know that I had Notre Dame to cover and Indiana too. Your loss....on to the picks!

***** 5 Star Picks

West Virginia (-6) v. Maryland: Alot of people are talking up a Maryland team that barely escaped against Northern Illinois two weeks ago. West Virginia is loaded, and KJ Harris is going to play. Rasheed Marshall is on fire right now. Mountaineers in a romp.

Syracuse (+3) v. Cincinnati: The demise of the Cuse is greatly overrated. In a home game against the Bearcats, Pasqualoni will get it done. There's no place like Dome.

Wisconsin/Arizona UNDER 40: This is too easy. Anthony Davis is hobbled, Arizona has a Mike Stoops defense, and the Wildcats couldn't score in 3 plays if you pulled the defense off the field. 3-0 sounds about right here.

Notre Dame (-3) @ Michigan State: MSU is terrible, losing to a Rutgers team that lost at home to New Hampshire. The Domers have better athletes, and will be very physical with the young Spartans. The Irish could win by two touchdowns here.

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Colorado State: This number vexes me. The Gophers are the second leading rushing team in the nation, going against a team that has given up 250 and 325 yards rushing in its first two games. The only problem the Gophers face is WR D. Anderson who has caught 300 yards worth of balls in two games.

**** 4 Star Picks:

Iowa State (-3) v. No. Illinois: Iowa State gave Iowa a real run, and had a chance to win that game. The QB situation seems to be settled in Ames, and the defense is strong. 3 is hardly a large enough number to even think about taking No. Ill on the road.

*** 3 Star Picks:

UAB (+23.5) @ Florida State: Chris Rix sucks. The end. UAB is a very underrated team that returns 80% on both sides of the football. They may not come close to winning, but they should cover.

UNLV (-6) v. Air Force: UNLV may be without their quarterback, but the strength of this team is its running game, and underrated defense. If they can contain the wishbone, led by a new QB, they should be ok. The Rebels are more than 6 points better than Air Force.

** 2 Star Picks:

San Diego State (+20) @ Michigan: I just dont believe in the Wolverines' offense. Henne may be good someday, but today, he stinks. RB D Underwood probably wont play, and without a solid running game, Henne will have trouble getting the passing game on track. Note that SD St is without Freshman AA RB L. Hamilton, but his replacement has been more than adequate.

Auburn PK v. LSU: I hate the LSU QB situation, and this game will be played in the mire. The best running game should prevail here, and Auburn has one of the best in the nation.

Oregon (+28) @ Oklahoma: Here is the thing. Oregon lost to Indiana, but outgained them by about a 3:1 margin. Oklahoma couldn't cover at home against Bowling Green. My thought is that if Oregon can keep from having 7 turnovers again (yipes!) they can keep this game within 4 touchdowns. A very sleepy pick.

TCU (+5.5) @ Texas Tech: Expect about 100 pts in this game. TCU has a great running game, and a very underrated passing game. Tech will move the ball through the air, but not like they did last season. TCU should win this game outright.

Arizona State (-1) v. Iowa: Just note that the Sun Devils are actually favored in this game. The Iowa defense is spectacular, but if ASU can put together any semblence of a running game, as they did last week against NW, they should be able to air it out against the Iowa secondary.

* 1 Lousy Star Picks:

La Tech (+30.5) @ Miami (FL): Call it a hunch. I think Berlin sucks. And, the La Tech RB has gone for 250 yards in each of his first two games. If La Tech can control the ball on the ground for a little while, they can at least keep the score respectable.



Friday, September 03, 2004

Picks, Week 1, Vol. I

Picks for the weekend of 9/4 - 9/5
**Lines are the opening vegas lines as provided be www.scoresandodds.com**


Rutgers (+7) vs. Michigan State: Rutgers is an improved team playing at home against a Michigan State team with a new quarterback and an extremely young secondary. Rutgers may win this game outright, but should stay within a touchdown. Rutgers****

Virginia (-16) @ Temple: Temple is quite possible the worst team left in the Big East. Coming off a 4-7 campaign, they will only get worse this season. A new quarterback in Virginia creates a question mark, however, three years of Al Groh's system and the running of Wali Lundy make the Cavs clear cut favorites. Virginia****

Clemson (-12.5) v. Wake Forest: Wake had a nice run a couple years ago, and put a .500 ball club on the field. While they may remain competitive this season, Clemson is a potential break out team. Tommy Bowden's defense will remain stout despite the loss of Donnell Washington, and QB Charlie Whitehurst will be the difference maker in this game. Clemson***

Michigan (-15) v. Miami (OH): Miaimi is a prerennial MAC powerhouse, and should give Michigan a slight scare following a 41-0 opening night win. However, Michigan is a title contender with the deepest receiving corps in the nation, and an excellent defense. Watch Soph QB Matt Gutierrez in this game, as he will be a breakout player this season. Michigan**

Akron (+15) @ Penn State: Call it a hunch. Akron scores a lot of points, but they give up a ton too. They aren't good enough to beat PSU, but the passing of small school wunderkind Charlie Frye will be enough to keep them within two touchdowns. If there is an over-under, that is the preferred play. Akron*

Vanderbilt (+5.5) v. South Carolina: If you were asking Lou Holtz, he would tell you that Vandy is the greatest team since the late 80's Hurricanes. He is apt to overhype his opponent. However, Vandy will be much improved while South Carolina is rebuilding. Talent remains, but the players on the Gamecocks are not nearly as seasoned as the Commodores. Look for a low scoring, tight game. Vanderbilt**

California (-12.5) @ Air Force: The fact that this is a road game for the Bears is the only matter of concern here. Air Force runs an effective wishbone offense that can confuse even the best defenses. If the Bears get sloppy, Air Force could easily put 28 on them. However, the right arm of Aaron Rogers will proved the potent Cal offense with at least 42 points against the undersized, undermanned Air Force defense. California***

Oklahoma (-33) v. Bowling Green: Give me this game last year, and I would ride the arm of Josh Harris to a cover. However, this isn't the same BG team, and Oklahoma is as fast and explosive as ever. The only question is whether the Sooners will cover before the subs come int to play. Adrian Peterson's coming out party should be a blow out. Oklahoma****

Colorado State (+6) @ Colorado: I don't need to go on and on about the problems at Colorado. For all the off the field problems, the Buffs equally lack on the field. The Rams will trot out a potent passing offense with the top returning reciever in the conference. Add to that Colorado transfer and former Parade All American Marcus Houston, and you have the makings of an upset. Beware the big play ability of Buffs RB Bobby Purify. Colorado State***

Notre Dame (-4.5) @ BYU: The name BYU congers up visions of explosive passing games running the score into the 50's. Those days are gone. BYU hasn't suited up a quality signal caller since Brandon Domann, and even that is pushing it. Notre Dame isn't the Fighting Irish of old, but QB Brady Quinn is a year older and RB Ryan Grant is a more than capable fill in for the departed Julius Jones. Notre Dame will win ugly, but cover nonetheless. Notre Dame***

UCLA (-2.5) v. Oklahoma State: Recent action has moved the line towards a pick em, and Im not sure why. While UCLA is not the dominant force it has been in the past, they still boast a potent combo in QB Drew Olson and potential All American WR Craig Bragg. After losing Tatum Bell, Josh Fields, and Rashaun Woods, I am not sure how Ok St can expect to compete. UCLA****

Navy (-6.5) v. Duke: Duke stinks. That is all you need to know. And the Navy option, run adeptly by QB Craig Candeto is exceptional. After a surprising campaign last year and a bowl berth, the Midshipmen will handle easily one of the worst teams in the country. Navy****

Memphis (+3.5) @ Mississippi: The fact that this is a road game is the only explanation for the spread. While the Sylvester Croom hiring is a great one for the SEC, it won't make up for the losses of Eli Manning and Chris Collins. The defense returns decent, but DeAngelo Williams and QB Danny Wimprine will be too much. The Tiger offense should be enough to win this game, given the deficiancies on the Mississippi offense. Memphis*

LSU (-18) v. Oregon State: Following the loss of Steven Jackson, Oregon State will not be the offensive force it was. Couple that with the graduation of WR James Newsom, and QB Derek Anderson will have his hands full fighting against the LSU alone. The loss of Matt Mauck will not be so bad for the Tigers, who bring in QB Marcus Randall to replace him. Randall is seasoned, has experience, and will have the best freshman receivers to throw to in the country. LSU***

Marshall (-14) v. Troy State: The Thundering Herd is a powerhouse, year in and year out. This year is no different as QB S. Hill keeps the tradition of exceptional signal callers going. Losing Darius Watts will hurt, but Troy State is a limited Div 1-A newcomer and should find the Marshall home field less then hospitable. Mashall*****

Louisville (-8) v. Kentucky: Behind the dynamic duo of Michael Bush and Eric Shelton, Lousiville will put an explosive offense on the field. The Cardinals are not as strong as they once were, but Kentucky is absolutely atrocious, and should find it difficult to keep up with the Cards without QB Jared Lorenzen who was last seen eating his way out of the Giants camp. Louisville****



Intro

Gonna try something a little new. Since I can't afford to gamble, here you will find all you need to know about my picks for the week. As football season approaches, many ask for my latest thoughts on the week's games. Now, for no charge to you whatsoever, you will receive my weekly picks. Worth their weight in gold, I offer them to you, the public, at no personal gain to myself. If you disagree with any of these picks, I don't care. Bet the opposite. I will track my performance over the course of the season. Remember, all picks are against the spread.

Note: Games will be given a Star Rating, from 1 to 5. A 5 star game indicates that I feel very strongly about the pick. As the stars decrease, so does my suredness.

-Worm