November 6, 2009 - Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder

Apologies to all regular readers (well, the both of you). Obviously I didnt get a post up last weekend. In my haste to get to a Halloween party, I rushed out of work before my usual posting. Suffice it to say, the gambling gods made me pay for it by delivering the greasiest cover of the season in the Iowa/Indiana game. For those who missed it, not only did the Hoosiers have a touchdown overturned in a game they were once leading 24-7, but with 1 minute remaining, and Iowa attempting to run out the clock on third down while leading by 11, the Hoosier defense collapsed and allowed a 50 yard touchdown. The final score, Iowa by 18 in a game I wagered heavily on with Indiana (+17.5). Apologies to my girlfriend for the unfriendly behavior I exhibited soon after the final whistle.

With that out of the way, let us move on to this week. Very few games excite me, so wager cautiously this week. Big numbers, and odd trends mean that you must be very selective this Saturday. As we head to the picks, let's recap Worm's performance from October 17th:

A Picks: 2 - 1 - 1
B Picks: 5 - 1
C Picks: 3 - 2
D Picks: 3 - 1

True to form, my B picks (picks I love but am just scared enough not to put max units on) were my best, along with my D picks (traditionally gut feelings). A picks were so so, while C picks were the runt of the litter, with those picks usually games that I have a gut feeling about, but that my mind says I shouldnt be touching. C ends up being the catch all traditionally, and I recommend C picks end up most often in teasers and ridiculously large $5 parlays.

*****A*****

Houston (-1.5) @ TULSA [4:30 pm PST]: Initially, I worried about a road game for the Cougars, and bettors did too. This game opened at HOU (-2.5), moved to TUL (+1.5), and is now back to the Cougs being a 1.5 fave. The reason is simple: Houston is the better team, but after a season of covers (let's all forget the UTEP game, shall we?), bettors are loathe to throw their eggs into this basket one more time. But trust the numbers here. Houston puts up nearly 200 more yards a game than Tulsa, and while the Hurricanes are riding a three game losing streak during which they have averaged fewer than 20 pts per game. Case Keenum is clicking on all cylindars, while the HOU running game has come to life. This game may be a shootout, but there is no question who will win it if it does.

Predicted Score: Houston 45, Tulsa 30
Actual Score:

Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ IOWA STATE [12:30 pm PST]: Start and end the discussion with two numbers: ISU makes its living on the ground, rushing for 200 ypg. However, OSU, despite being known for its offense, is holding it's opponents to just 99 yards a game on the ground. Factor in the return to health of RB Kendall Hunter, and the Cowboy offense and defense should share duties in dominating an Iowa State team that has scored a whopping 19 pts in its last two games,

Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 33, Iowa State 14
Actual Score:

TENN/Memphis UNDER/ 52 [4:00 pm PST]: Tennessee should win this game going away, running all over a Tiger defense that gives up 197 ypg. However, the Vol defense has continually improved all year under defensive guru Monte Kiffin. Look for Tenn to stuff the undermanned Tiger offense and win this game going away, while holding Memphis under 10 and preserving the cover.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 35, Memphis 7
Actual Score:

****B****

MINNESOTA (-7) v. Illinois: Consider the Illini thrashing of Michigan last week an aberration. On the road, they are a different ball club, and they are facing a Gopher team that has changed its identity for the better. Missing top WR Eric Decker against Mich St, QB Adam Weber was forced to find secondary and third receivers on the way to racking up 416 yards through the air with 5 touchdowns. He should maintain this momentum, while the running game gets untracked against a pourous Illini front four. QB Juice Williams offers a running threat that has confounded the Gophers in the past, but with all three linebackers amongst the top 10 tacklers in the Big Ten, look for them to focus on containing the mobile threat on route to a two touchdown win.

Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Illinois 20
Actual Score:

MISSOURI (-14) v. Baylor [11:00 am PST]: Mostly a momentum play, Baylor has been struggling to put any points on the board since they lost their all league QB Robert Griffith. Look for the Mizzou defense to capitalize with 3 turnovers, and for QB Blaine Gabbert to turn them into points.

Predicted Score: Missouri 38, Baylor 17
Actual Score:

NOTRE DAME (-12.5) v Navy [11:30 am PST]: Once upon a time, Navy went into South Bend and ended a 43 game losing streak there. But this isn't the same ND offense they are facing this time around. All American candidate WR Michael Floyd returns for the Irish against a Navy defense whose numbers look better than what they put on the field. An option team, they control the pace of the game and keep their numbers looking respectable. But dont look for that to occur here, as the Irish will throw up top to Floyd and Golden Tate all day, while keeping the Navy running game in check as it attempts to reintroduce QB Ricky Dobbs from injury.

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 42, Navy 24
Actual Score:

Oregon (-7) @ STANFORD [12:30 pm PST]: Needless to say, Im not in love with this pick, and could move it to an A or a D. This game opened at 5, my guess is, based on speculation that Oregon would suffer a let down after the big USC win. My head and heart say that Chip Kelly won't allow a let down, and that the powerful Duck run game will wear the Cardinal out in a game that will be tight for three quarters. In the end, the Oregon speed should prove too much for the fiesty and hard hitting Cardinal.

Predicted Score: Oregon 28, Stanford 17
Actual Score:

Kent St (-3.5) @ AKRON [12:30 pm PST]: Akron is (1-7) and they can't run the football. They also can't protect the quarterback, and sit at 101st in the nation in sacks allowed. Unfortunately for them, KSU excels at rushing the passer, and should capitalize. Expect 4-6 sacks and a very frustrated Golden Eagle offense by the end of the day. It wont be pretty, but 3.5 shouldnt be enough to deter anyone from picking this tight road cover.

Predicted Score: Kent State 24, Akron 10
Actual Score:

***C***

Duke (+10) @ NORTH CAROLINA [12:30 pm]: Fla St demonstrated how to pick apart the UNC secondary, and red hot Thaddeus Lewis will be primed to do just that in this derby.

Usc (-10) @ ARIZONA STATE [5:00 pm PST]

MICHIGAN (-7) v Purdue [9:00 am PST]: They really should be able to get back on track with a team loaded with athletes against a rebuilding Boilermaker team on the road. Purdue got their big win of the year, and Michigan had their stinker. Back to normal.

Nevada (-13.5) @ SAN JOSE STATE [Nov 8th]: SJSU gives up 240 ypg on the ground, and Nevada runs for 314 ypg. This might get ugly....

**D**

PITT (-21) v Syracuse

TCU (-24.5) @ SAN DIEGO ST

October 24th, 2009 - Return of the Worm

Man is not a born gambler but, from his experiences in life, he acquires a fascination for the elements of chance, and seeking to emulate his elders, he attempts to exploit these factors in pursuance of reward. It would appear that gambling in the betting sense is a thread in the pattern of social evolution – a thread that has remained unbroken since the dawn of time.
- J Philip Jones Gambling Yesterday and Toady 1973

It has been quite some time since I have graced these pages with my thoughts and ramblings. Today I feel the urge to return to the past and dispense my ideas and prognostications upon you in the hopes that we may all share a touch of success in this wonderful world of wagering. To those new to the blog, for some time I posted my thoughts and rationales behind certain wagering tips in the hopes of giving people a slight edge as they attempt to decide between Team A and Team B. You will find a selection with a letter ranking, indicating the level of faith I have in said pick, followed by a brief (usually) write up of my reasoning behind said pick, and finally a hypothesised score based on my personal comparison of the two teams and my expected outcome. This is not a science, but the selections are based on hours of observation, investigation and education. I am not a professional handicapper and these picks are for entertainment purposes only.

Of course, for those of you who have been around for the past years, welcome back. Let's start with a recap of my action so far this year. Be advised, all of my bets have been on http://www.sportsbook.com/, which I wholeheartedly endorse. If you choose to use them for your own needs, please mention me so that I may get a recommendation bonus. Also, I am happy to print out my results for anyone to audit should they not believe my modest success. That being said, success thus far is as follows:

NCAA Against the Spreaad: 38-25-2 (.615)
NCAA Money Line: 3-1 (.750)
NCAA Overs Bet: 2-4-1 (.429)
NCAA Unders Bet: 3-3 (.500)
-----------------------------------------------
Total Record 46-33-3 (.598)

NFL Total Record: 26-15 (.634)

Composite FB Record: 72-48-3 (.610)

THE PICKS:

Please note that these picks are subject to change. I may pop in during the day with notes on them, depending on how the day progresses or what kind of feeling I get. Use these as a guideline in your own betting. This week, due to a lack of time, I will not be doing a full blown analysis, only snippets. Comments are welcome.


*A* PICKS

MARSHALL (-7) v. Uab: UAB will tend to rope you in with their dual threat QB, Joe Webb. However, Marshall brings it's own offensive weapon in the eponymous Darius Marshall, RB. The grind it out style that the the Thundering Herd employs should be effective enough to keep Webb's talents off the field. And when on the field, the Herd defense demonstrates enough LB speed to turn Webb into a one trick pony. I dont see UAB's defense being able to stop the superior offense of Marshall, allowing them to beat this number fairly comfortably.

Predicted Score: Marshall 27, UAB 14
Actual Score: Marshall 27, UAB 7 [W]

DUKE (-4.5) v Maryland: This year has been unkind to Ralph Friedgen, as MD has lost to such stalwarts as William & Mary, while struggling mightly with numerous other mediocre teams. They do have a solid passing game, but not nearly the offensive firepower that Duke has. At 3-3, the Devils have been a pleasant surprise, and even more pleasant has been the performance of Duke QB Thaddeus Smith. Smith has quietly thrown for 300+ yards and 11 total TDs in his last three games, and looks to do the same this weekend.

Predicted Score: Duke 31, Maryland 23
Actual Score: Duke 17, Maryland 13 [P]

TOLEDO (-2.5) v Temple: Temple has had a resurgence, but they are without their standout freshman running back this week. Despite a decent defensive performance, the Owls will go up against QB Aaron Opelt, who returns from injury this week. Opelt is the one who torched Colorado for 56 pts early in the year, and it is highly likely that he returns with a hot hand this weekend.

Predicted Score: Toledo 28, Temple 10
Actual Score: Temple 40, Toledo 24 [L]

HOUSTON (-16.5) v. Smu: Houston is an offensive juggernaut behind Heisman candidate Case Keenum, and the offensive fireworks should continue against the hapless Mustangs. However, SMU is coached by run and shoot guru June Jones, and cannot be counted on to roll over and die on offense. Be wary of the team that almost beat Navy last week, as they have the system to do some damage. However, Houston is the pick here since their weakness is on the ground - an area of the field SMU ignores on a regular basis. 450 yards for Keenum and three picks for the defense in a blowout.

Predicted Score: Houston 42, SMU 21
Actual Score: Houston 38, SMU 15 [W]

*B* PICKS

SYRACUSE (-10.5) v Akron: Greg Paulus will throw all over Akron, as the Zips have no one to cover top notch wideout Mike Williams.

Predicted Score: Syracuse 35, Akron 14
Actual Score: Syracuse 28, Akron 14 [W]

MIAMI (FL) (-4.5) v Clemson: Smart money likes Clemson, as this game opened at (-7). However, the deciding factor will be QB in this game, and Jacory Harris will make sure the Canes get the last laugh.

Predicted Score: Miami 24, Clemson 17
Actual Score: Clemson 40, Miami 37 OT [L]

Ohio/Kent St UNDER 47 [W]

Penn State (-4.5) @ MICHIGAN: This game makes me a tad nervous, but PSU's defense is too strong for a young Michigan team that is still trying to find it's way. Look for the Wolverines to shuttle their young Qbs in and out, looking for something that works.

Predicted Score: Penn State 28, Michigan 7
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Michigan 10 [W]

Iowa (+1.5) @ MICH STATE: MSU is the trendy pick here, but Iowa just keeps getting it done as an underdog. Keep riding them until they prove they cant handle it.

Predicted Score: Iowa 17, Mich St 14
Actual Score: Iowa 15, Michigan St 13 [W]

Tcu (-2.5) @ BYU: When a game is this close, take the stronger defense. TCU can move the ball just enough to give them the points they will need to overcome the Cougars, who are looking for revenge after the Horns busted their BCS bubble just last year.

Predicted Score: TCU 23, BYU 17
Actual Score: TCU 38, BYU 7 [W]

*C* PICKS

OHIO (-10) v Kent St [L]

Ok St (-9.5) @ Baylor: Baylor QB Robert Griffin is still out, and despite the injuries to Ok St, they have much more depth to absorb the losses. The Cowboy way wins out over the undermanned Bears. [W]

Indiana (+4.5) @ NORTHWESTERN [W]

Auburn (+8) @ LSU [L]

Tennessee (+16) @ ALABAMA: Look for Monte Kiffin to come up with a way to shut down the Bama passing game. Mark Ingram is a fine RB for the Tide, but he wont be enough to cover this number. As always, factor in the total ineptitude of Jonathan Crompton when making this
pick. [W]

*D* PICKS

Uconn (+7) @ WEST VIRGINIA: This is a 10 point game, but the emotion the Husky players will be feeling should push it within the 7 [W]

UTAH ST (-1) v La Tech: A hunch. They gotta win a close one one of these days. [W]

Arizona St (+6.5) @ STANFORD [L]

PITT (-6.5) v South Florida: Im not excited about this pick [W]

Podcast!

Wormpix has gone big time. Get all of your picks and random idiocy at Wormcast. Click on the link below to be transferred...and tell your friends!

WORMCAST

September 16, 2006

Last Week: 5-8

Total Record: 13-13-1

Rough week, and made all the more rough by the fact that I came up. Unfortunately, I can only provide picks ahead of time. You must contact me for real time thoughts. This week, that would ahve worked out, as I made a lot of money on Notre Dame second half, Ohio State second half, and a Rice/Oregon parlay. Throw in big money on Pitt and then West Virginia last night, and there was a winning week that went under the radar. With that said, this week's picks!

*****A*****

Texas (-33) v. Rice: Texas is of course coming off of a major loss, and will be anxious to prove that they belong amongst the elite. They can run the ball effectively, and have a stingy defense that will be working with two weeks of game film to better understand the new spread offense that has been installed at Rice. Colt McCoy will be on a tighter leash as the Longhorns will run often, and both Sedrick Irvin and Jamaal Charles should top the century mark. Look for key second half turnovers to make this a laugher.

Predicted Score: Texas 51, Rice 3

Actual Score:

Texas Tech (-1.5) @ TCU: Amazingly, and I can attest to this as a Dallas denizen, this is the premier matchup in the Southwest this week. Texas Tech is anxious to show that they are for real, and TCU is looking for respect. However, as both Robert Merrill and Lonta Hobbs are, well, hobbled, TCU's running game has stalled. If Texas Tech can zero in on the underrated Jeff Ballard and control the TCU passing game, their own explosive attack should give them a sizeable advantage.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 35, TCU 21

Actual Score:

Hawaii (-12) v UNLV: Traveling to Hawaii is always a problem, and it should be more so for a team with limited resources like UNLV. Quarterback Colt Brennan is the best passer you have never heard of. He should go for 400 and 4 scores and the Warriors roll.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 42, UNLV 17

Actual Score:


****B****

Boise St (-7.5) @ Wyoming: I am usually a victim of falling in love with a team based on their previous week's performance. This time, I believe I am warranted. Granted, Wyoming played tough in a hostile environment in Virginia, but that is a below average Cavalier team. Boise throttled a similar Oregon State team, and despite the fact it was accomplished on the Smurf Turf, I see no reason RB Ian Johnson won't see similar running lanes against the Cowboys. Wyoming will come out pumped early, but if they bring up their safeties to stop the run game, QB Jared Zabransky will make them pay.

Predicted Score: Boise St 35, Wyoming 24

Actual Score:

Miami (+4) @ Louisville: Hi, Im Louisville, and I am your trendy BCS pick. Forget it. Many will declare the Cardinals' running game fit after dropping 320 and 7 scores on Temple, but not so fast my friend. This is Miami we are talking about, and they are to defense what G Dubya is to malapropisms. They can't hold the Ville down completely, but they should be able to play enough defense to make this game a close one. Look for Kyle Wright to find more room to throw the ball and show off his improved passing skills. Upset city, baby.

Predicted Score: Miami 23, Louisville 20

Actual Score:

Nevada (-2) v. Colorado State: They had a tough time getting untracked last week, but the Pack should have no problems at home against an average Col St squad. This should be a fairly close game, but in even matchups, home field is worth three, making -2 a gift.

Predicted Score: Nevada 34, Col State 28

Actual Score:

***C***

Iowa St (+13) @ Iowa: Really an obvious pick, which makes it a potentially bad one. Will Drew Tate be back? Yes. But his top wideout, Charles Davis is out for the year. I love RB Albert Young, and the Iowa defense is always amongst the best. However, this is an Iowa State team with a good offense, a track record of hanging with the Hawkeyes, and too many points under its belt to ignore. They prob wont win this game, but there is little change they lose by two touchdowns.

Predicted Score: Iowa 31, Iowa State 21

Actual Score:

Florida (-3.5) @ Tennessee: Tennessee, you fickle creature. My current girlfriend doesn't have me this vexed, and I couldn't tell you her next move if she submitted it in writing. After crushing a very talented Cal squad, they laid the proverbial egg against Air Force. How I missed that obvious let down/look ahead game is beyond me. The bottom line is that Urban Meyer is a great offensive coach, and QB Chris Leak appears to get his offense. If they can continue to operate as efficiently as they have so far, they should out score Tennessee considerably, while a very good defense, lead by LB Brandon Siler helps QB Erik Ainge revert to his old ways. Pressure, pressure, and more pressure should help Florida swing momentum in their favor. And they will not be influenced by the Neyland Stadium faithful.

Predicted Score: Florida 28, Tennessee 21

Actual Score:

Auburn (-3.5) v. LSU: Looks even on paper, doesn't it? But Auburn does all the things it takes to beat LSU. This is as good, if not better, a team as the undefeated squad that was denied a shot at the national title. Kenny Irons went for 22o on the ground last year in this matchup, and this time, they are at home. Auburn's big receivers should make the tough catches to make Brandon Cox look good, while the Auburn defense, coming off of a shutout, should hold the limited LSU running game in check.

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, LSU 14

Actual Score:


**D**

Ohio St (-29) v Cincy:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Michigan (+6) @ Notre Dame:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Nebraska (+17.5) @ USC:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Syracuse (+3) @ Illinois:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

September 9th, 2006

Decent opening week. 8-5-1. Huge mistake on Cal, just didnt realize that Cutcliff would make that big a difference. And Tenn exposed Cal as a team that may not be as fast as people thought. Tenn brough Olympic speed to the field and ran around Cal all day. Add in the 100K people that I forgot to factor in, and well, you get a major blunder. Also did you all wrong by not making Indiana my lock of the week, as they were that by game time. They will be the team to follow again this week. On to the picks:

*****A*****

Missouri/Mississippi OVER 47: I can hear readers out there saying it already..."Huh?" Mississippi, even with a defensive minded coach, boasts two excellent transfers on offense (QB Brent Shaeffer from Tenn and former Hoosier BenJarvus Green-Ellis at RB) that should be able to put up 20+ pts on the Mizzou D. The key is Missouri's excellent offense and the improved play of QB Chase Daniels. At home, they should run up a cool 35 against a defense that gave up 25 to a subpar Memphis squad, and the two should combine for at least 50. Miss (-8) wasn't the worst play, but that number has since moved to (-10)

Predicted Score: Missouri 35, Mississippi 27

Actual Score: Missouri 34, Mississippi 7 [L]

Indiana (-3.5) @ Ball St: Im not looking past Ball State, I just think that people are not respecting the improved Indiana offense, and the early lines are soft. This game should be at least (-7.5) and it would be a sin not to play it. The Hoosier passing game is very good, and WR James Hardy is a Marcus Robinson-type who should dominate the Ball State secondary. For a MAC team, but the Cardinals will struggle with Big Ten calibur talent like most of their fellow league members.

Predicted Score: Indiana 30, Ball State 21

Actual Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23 [L]

Georgia (-3) @ South Carolina: I really think that this line is so low because of how tough So Car played them last year. I just don't see it happening again. Mark Richt is an excellent coach, as can be seen by what happened to the Fla St offense after his departure. He boasts a very strong three headed running game that should dominate a defense that looked soft against a freshman running back for Miss State. QB Joe Tershansky is shaky, but his freshman backup just may come in and make some noise. QB Blake Mitchell is hobbled for So Carolina, who should have a hard time moving the ball against a defense that is athletically superior.

Predicted Score: Georgia 24, South Carolina 10

Actual Score: Georgia 18, South Carolina 0 [W]

Oregon (-3) @ Fresno State: My favorite game. After making a mint on Nevada to cover at Fresno, I love the Ducks to run ramshod over an overrated Bulldog squad. Despite a strong defense and a very good running game, the new Fresno QB is worse than below average, and will have trouble finding space against a good Oregon secondary. The key will be the improved play of QB David Dixon for the Ducks (70% completions against Stanford) and the monster running game led by RB James Stewart. Hammer this game....

Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Fresno State 17

Actual Score: Oregon 31, Fresno State 24 [W]

****B****

Auburn (-20.5) @ Miss State: Some will think this is too much to give on the road. I love the Auburn offense, and I see no indication that new QB Tray Rutledge can get the Bulldogs past midfield against the superior Tiger defense. After a 6-15 effort against South Carolina, I find it hard to believe MSU will complete even a single pass. Look for Auburn to dominate this game, and move the ball however they want.

Predicted Score: Auburn 42, Miss State 3

Actual Score: Auburn 34, Miss State 0 [W]

***C***

Illinois/Rutgers OVER 50: Call it a hunch. Two good offenses, two bad defenses. The Ron Zook recruits are starting to play, and the young passing game should be able to put some late points up for the cheap cover.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 38, Illinois 24

Actual Score: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0 [L]

Tennesse (-20) v Air Force: Fine, Im a believer. David Cutcliff was the missing ingredient. Tenn has great talent, but couldnt get together on offense. If Erik Ainge is going to be consistent, they should trounce mid level teams consistently. Air Force will be nervous in Neyland Stadium, where it is doubtful their running game can do better than Cal's, which boasted prehaps the nation's best runner.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 42, Air Force 14

Actual Score: Tennessee 31, Air Force 30 [L]


**D**

Clemson (-2.5) @ BC: After last week, I refuse to trust BC. Clemson has a very good team, and if Will Proctor plays smart, they should cover this game. BC could win outright, but the Clemson defense should be the difference.

Predicted Score: Clemson 31, BC 23

Actual Score: BC 32, Clemson 31 [L]

Penn State (+7.5) @ Notre Dame: Should really buy this up to the original 8.5. This pick has nothing to do with ND's performance at G Tech, and has everything to do with Penn State being completely underrated. Great defense, pursuing line backers, and superior speed on offense should keep them in this game. If QB Anthony Morelli can play to his abilities (and I think he will) they might even pull the upset.

Predicted Score: Penn State 31, Notre Dame 30

Actual Score: Notred Dame 42, Penn State 17 [L]

Minnesota (+8) @ Cal: I believe. Watch as the Gopher front line pushes the overmatched Cal defensive line around. A three headed monster at running back should keep the Bears occupied while QB Bryan Cupito finds his rhythm, throwing to big receivers matched up against small corners. Cal will score at will, but the Gophers may pull an upset in this track meet.

Predicted Score: Cal 44, Minnesota 38

Actual Score: Cal 42, Minnesota 17 [L]

Ohio State (+2) @ Texas: Id love to go on and on as to why I like this game, but I can't think of exactly why. Everything says Texas to me, but in the end, the difference between Troy Smith and Colt McCoy should dictate the score. Despite 9 new starters on defense, the Buckeyes should be competitive. Meanwhile, there is just too much speed on Ohio State's side of the ball to allow the Texas defense to control the game. Look for freshman RB Chris Wells to make a difference for Ohio State, while WR Limas Sweed may be enough to save Colt McCoy from a horrible game. Throwing against No Texas is one thing....he should struggle here as the pressure from the home crowd mounts.

Predicted Score: Ohio State 28, Texas 21

Actual Score: Ohio State 24, Texas 7 [W]

*LEAN*

No Ill (-16) v Ohio: At home, with Garrett Wolfe at RB, and I see the Huskies controlling this matchup against a below average Ohio squad.

Predicted Score: No Ill 35, Ohio 16
[L]

Actual Score:

Michigan State (-25.5) v Eastern Michigan: They are due to cover one of these. This should be the week. Paging Drew Stanton.....

Predicted Score: Mich State 50, East Mich 7
[W]

Actual Score:

Games of September 2-3, 2006

Guess who's back? Back again! Yes, your friendly neighborhood handicapper, The Consigliari, is back with is full service set of picks and analysis as the 2006-07 College Football Season kicks off! Early in the season, I won't attempt to break down each game with any form of analysis, as it is too early to make a pick based on a legitimate basis. All I can do is look for soft lines, and recognize teams that return more talent than people realize (or less....Im talking to you, Texas offense) and try and take advantage of those games. So there will be little or no analysis for the first three weeks. As always, you can email me and get my thoughts on any game on the board (even those not chosen). On to the first picks of the season!

*****A*****

California (-2) @ Tennessee: No one realizes how good Cal is on both sides of the football. Especially dangerous is their secondary, which should give the inconsistent Ainge fits. Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are both 1500 yard rushers in any scheme.

Predicted Score: Cal 28, Tennessee 14

Actual Score: Tennessee 35, Cal 18 [L]

USC (-8) @ Arkansas: Yes it is on the road, and yes this is an SEC team hosting a depleted group of Trojans. In two years, Arkansas should be solid, but right now, they are still struggling. USC is loaded with talent, and the question is just who will be the next big star for the Trojans. Remember, no one knew anything about Matt Leinart when he first started a game.

Predicted Score: USC 27, Arkansas 10

Actual Score: USC 50, Arkansas 14 [W]

Rutgers (+5) @ North Carolina: Rice and Leonard. The rest is just "smoke filled, coffee house crap."

Predicted Score: Rutgers 35, UNC 28

Actual Score: Rutgers 21, UNC 16 [W]

****B****

Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama: Remember Ty Detmer? Meet Colt Brennen.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 38, Alabama 35

Actual Score Alabama 24, Hawaii 17 [W]

***C***

Oregon (-12) v. Stanford

Predicted Score: Oregon 31, Stanford 14

Actual Score: Oregon 48, Stanford 10 [W]

Penn State (-17) v. Akron

Predicted Score: Penn State 41, Akron 7

Actual Score: Penn State 34, Akron 16 [W]

North Texas (+41) @ Texas

Predicted Score: Texas 35, North Texas 3

Actual Score: Texas 56, North Texas 7 [L]

Mississippi (-3) v. Memphis

Predicted Score: Mississippi 14, Memphis 0

Actual Score: Mississippi 28, Memphis 25 [push]

**D**

Wake Forest (-14) v Syracuse

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 24, Syracuse 9

Actual Score: Wake Forest 20, Syracuse 10 [L]

Auburn (-14.5) v Washington State

Predicted Score: Auburn 45, Wash State 10

Actual Score: Auburn 40, Wash State 14 [W]

Indiana (-6.5) v. West Michigan

Predicted Score: Indiana 38, W Michigan 21

Actual Score: Indiana 39, W Michigan 20 [W]

*LEAN*

Utah (+3) @ Ucla

Predicted Score: Utah 28, UCLA 21

Actual Score: UCLA 31, Utah 10 [L]

Arizona (-7) v BYU

Predicted Score: Arizona 21, BYU 10

Actual Score: Arizona 16, BYU 13 [L]

West Virginia (-22) v Marshall

Predicted Score: West Virginia 44, Marshall 14

Actual Score: West Virginia 42, Marshall 10 [W]

November 12, 2005

Last week....eh. I am absolutely at a loss in regards to the Boston College and Michigan State losses. Both games were the victims of significant point shaving, though the writing was on the wall for the Mich St game. That is my own fault. UCLA meanwhile, everyone who didn't see that as a trap game took a beating. Here is my thing though...how is that a trap game? They just played a close game, and the game they should be looking forward to was two weeks away. So, they shouldn't have been looking ahead. If anything, they got out coached, out schemed, and out performed. Stoops is just a better coach who exploited the Bruins, an inevitability I should have seen. That is my fault. It is also my fault that I switched off of Utah, and that I played BYU in my own bets but didnt include them here. Again, what was I thinking. All that being said, here are the bare bone picks, with analysis hopefully to come later:

11/5 Record: 11-9 (.550)

Record to Date: 111-90-4 (.561)

11/5 A Picks: 2-2 (.500)

A Picks to Date: 22-11 (.667)


*****A Picks

Western Michigan (-3) v Central Michigan:

Predicted Score: W Mich 37, C Mich 28
Actual Score:

Vanderbilt (-11) v. Kentucky:

Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 35, Kentucky 21
Actual Score:

Hawaii (-16.5) v. Utah State:

Predicted Score: Hawaii 42, Utah St 14
Actual Score:

Tulsa (-9.5) v. East Carolina:

Predicted Score: Tulsa 34, ECU 21
Actual Score:

Eastern Michigan (-6) v. Ball State:

Predicted Score: EMU 31, BSU 21
Actual Score:

South Florida (-8) @ Syracuse:

Predicted Score: South Florida 30, Syracuse 14
Actual Score:

Tulane (+1) @ Rice:

Predicted Score: Tulane 28, Rice 21
Actual Score:

Georgia Tech (+3.5) @ Virginia:

Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 21
Actual Score:

Idaho (+9) v. Louisiana Tech:

Predicted Score: La Tech 31, Idaho 24
Actual Score:

****B Picks

Miami (Fla) (-17) @ Wake Forest:

Predicted Score: Miami 34, Wake Forest 14
Actual Score:

Iowa State (+2) v. Colorado:

Predicted Score: Iowa St 28, Colorado 27
Actual Score:

Oregon (-4.5) @ Washington State:

Predicted Score: Oregon 37, Washington St 28
Actual Score:

Memphis (+19) @ Tennessee:

Predicted Score: Tennessee 24, Memphis 10
Actual Score:

Alabama (+3) v. LSU:

Predicted Score: Alabama 14, LSU 10
Actual Score:

***C Picks

Central Florida (+7.5) @ UAB:

Predicted Score: UAB 37, UCF 34
Actual Score:


Boston College (-4.5) v. North Carolina State:

Predicted Score: Boston College 24, NC State 17
Actual Score:

UConn (+12) @ Pittsburgh:

Predicted Score: UConn 24, Pitt 21
Actual Score:

Navy (+23.5) @ Notre Dame:

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 37, Navy 21
Actual Score:

Texas A&M (+13) @ Oklahoma:

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31, Tex A&M 24
Actual Score:

Auburn (+3) @ Georgia:

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, Georgia 21
Actual Score:

Texas Tech (-23.5) @ Oklahoma State:

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 45, Ok State 21
Actual Score:

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OVER/UNDERS

Vanderbilt/Kentucky O/52.5

Oregon/Washington State O/62.5

Wisconsin/Iowa O/54

Georgia/Auburn O/41

UAB/Central Florida O/55

UCLA/Arizona State O/71